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Opinion: Delegate Math: What They Need to Win

Super Tuesday is behind us. I was right as I predicted in my column and at WNYC on Tuesday night. Nobody won!

Here is the one number you need to know for now. It will be on the test: 77

Updated: After all these contests and all the hyperventilation about Romney “winning” this or that, after Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney only has 87 more delegates than his opponents combined. (He has 415, they have 328.)

How many does he need? Not 87, that’s for sure! He needs 1,144 to get the nomination. So he only” needs to get 729 more delegates, and then Romney wins.

Granted, Romney did well on Super Tuesday, winning (i.e. getting more votes than the other three guys) in Vermont, Virginia, Massachusetts, Idaho, and Alaska. But in the crucial battleground state of Ohio he tied with Santorum. That's not a victory considering he won his 38 percent with just a few hundred votes more than Santorum’s 37 percent.

It's a catastrophic disaster for the GOP that the results of Super Tuesday were so completely indecisive.

Gingrich won big with 47 percent in his home state of Georgia. He also did okay in OK (sorry) and Tennessee. Gingrich stays in with his “tortoise and the hare” strategy, as he put it. (Newt’s the tortoise.)

Rick Santorum did very well winning North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, and coming in a close second in Alaska. This gives him a huge boost, especially since the next states are mostly southern, very conservative, and religious. He should do well in Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi, and Missouri, further plaguing Mitt Romney.

And even Ron Paul stays in this race for the long haul. In Virginia he got 40 percent of the vote, which is substantial. Only Paul and Romney were on the ballot in Virginia, where Romney got 60 percent, but Paul is taking valuable delegates in the proportional contests and suppressing potential higher percentages for Romney. That's not a good thing for Mittens.

We are now looking also at March 20, when Illinois picks its delegates, which could be another brutal contest between Romney, who will do well in the north, and Santorum in the south. Then there's Louisiana on March 24, which is probably not Romney country.

April 3 will be interesting because it’s an odd mix of states: Maryland, Texas and Wisconsin. May 8 throws another curve ball with Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia. Who wins in these states is difficult to predict today, but I’m pretty sure it will be a divided result because different states match up with the strengths of each of the four contenders. Could Ron Paul, who’s from Texas, blow the others away?

Let me also share this: former Alaska governor and 2008 VP candidate Sarah Palin ominously said to CNN on Super Tuesday that she has not ruled out stepping up to the plate in case none of the four current contenders come to Tampa with the necessary 1,144 delegates.

When they heard this, I’m sure the GOP establishment was shaking in its boots! Palin has huge negatives and is widely seen as one of the main reasons McCain lost to Obama in 2008. I know for a fact that several GOP poobahs are already taking Jeb Bush and Chris Christie out for dinner and whispering in their ears.

The truth is that a field of four contestants has emerged, but it's not pulling the GOP together, not appealing to a majority of the party (Romney rarely gets 50 percent), and not looking like any of them can really close the deal with independent voters in November.

I know for a fact that Barack Obama had a very relaxed and pleasant breakfast on “super” Wednesday.