A Preview of the First Presidential Debate

[MUSIC]

Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good Monday morning, everyone. As we begin an eventful week in New York and national politics, the main event nationally is this Thursday night's televised debate between President Biden and former President Trump, as you all know. Tomorrow is primary day in New York State with the marquee race in the Democratic congressional primary being at lower Manhattan, lower Westchester, and a little of the Bronx between Jamaal Bowman and George Latimer.

There are many other things on the ballot too, including another Democratic congressional primary John Avlon versus Nancy Goroff on Long Island, as they each hope to take on Republican Congressman Nick LaLota and flip that seat blue. Of course, the New York suburbs so key in 2022 to Republicans having control of the house. It will be a very key area in 2024 for who controls the house. Who has the better shot at defeating Nick LaLota, Goroff, or Avlon? We'll talk about that race coming up, but we'll start on the national scene.

A few things I've read or heard about Thursday night's Trump-Biden debate. It's the earliest presidential debate ever coming even before the parties' conventions this summer. I wonder what the implications of that might be. The political columnist John Heilemann in his Puck news newsletter this morning wrote, it might wind up being their only debate, even though a second one is already scheduled in September. I wonder what politics might lead to a cancellation of debate Number 2. Also, a respected New York journalist I know, and I'm not going to name them because we had this conversation off the air and I didn't ask if I could use it, but a respected New York journalist predicted a Biden victory in November.

Why? Because so much of Trump's support in the polls comes from people who say they pay little attention to politics. This journalist thinks many of them will start tuning into the race as it gets closer and the support for Trump is soft in that group, and many will decide ultimately that Trump is just too out there. I don't know if that journalist take will prove right or wrong, but if it's got even the chance of being right, this week's debate could be even more important than the televised debates in most years. The polls also show that the audience Thursday night is expected to be massive, which is interesting considering how much of the public says they're disengaged and tuned out. The stakes are as high as for any debate I can think of ever seeing in a presidential race.

Let's see. Beyond that, this is also the earliest, I mentioned the earliest presidential debate, and all debates these days are partly just platforms for generating the sound bites that will be seen by even more people on the internet, but these days, will AI-generated deep fake videos become easier to make and more realistic than the debate itself? We'll see how much the real sound bites from the debate have to compete with some hackers' made-up ones. Let's start debate week with Azi Paybarah, a national reporter covering campaigns and breaking politics news for The Washington Post. Azi also has deep New York journalism ties, including his stints with the New York Times and here at WNYC. Hi, Azi, always good to talk. Welcome back to WNYC.

Azi Paybarah: Thanks for having me. Great to be here.

Brian Lehrer: Going into the weekend, you noted that Biden was headed to Camp David for a debate prep. Do you have anything on how he prepped for today's version of Donald Trump or if anyone role-played Trump in practice matches or anything else?

Azi Paybarah: I believe his personal lawyer stood in for debate prep standing in for Donald Trump. As we all know, Trump is just one of the most recognizable characters in media and in politics. In some ways, you can have almost anyone stand in for Donald Trump. So many people do impressions of him. We've seen what he said over the last eight years or so. I think what the Biden people are really hoping is that some of the structure of the debate works in their favor. It's going to be hosted by CNN, a mainstream media outlet that Biden and a lot of people who are not typical Trump supporters believe is a fair and accurate news outlet.

There's going to be no audience for Donald Trump to play off of. That's really one of his key strengths. He reads a room, he sees how people respond, and then he goes in that direction. What is he going to do when there's not an audience? Also, importantly, the microphones, they're going to be cut when it's not a candidate's turn to speak. We know Donald Trump likes to interrupt people and just blow past a whole bunch of rules, and here's a structure where he's really not allowed to do that.

Brian Lehrer: This could go well or this could go badly. I could see a scenario or let's say I've heard commentators describe how there could be a scenario where, yes, this really does serve the public better. They screamed over each other a lot in the 2020 debates, and so people can hear very clearly with this format, perhaps, which one really has the better plan to fight inflation according to me that kind of thing. Or it could go really bad in terms of probably mostly Trump trying to scream over Biden anyway because the mic just a little bit down the stage will still pick up a little off-mic rant if somebody wants to go there and try to cause a scene that way and claim he's being censored with turning off the mics or anything like that. It could go well or it could go badly.

Azi Paybarah: It really can. Remember, the structure may favor Biden by having it be so focused on the rhetoric and the policy. Donald Trump for this entire campaign has been making a lot of these really emotional-based arguments to his supporters. He points out people who are victims of crime allegedly committed by people in this country not legally. Those are very evocative, emotionally-driven storylines that can resonate with people, even if you tell them fact-based information that most people who are born outside the country that are here commit less crimes compared to native-borns.

Donald Trump's ability to make an emotional argument and have it be memorable in a way is one of his key strengths. He loves to attack moderators and claim that he's being unfair. Joe Biden is really trying to make an argument to people about how good the economy is, even if people may not feel it. There's a whole bunch of data that says, "Hey, the economy and Wall Street are doing better than they have in years." They each have opportunities to really make an impression on what might be the largest audience of people tuning into the race so far.

Brian Lehrer: That poll that I mentioned in the intro or referred to, that the audience is expected to be massive, the number I saw is 63% of likely voters say they'll be watching Thursday night. Are you surprised? Let's assume this poll number is even accurate, but given how many so-called double haters there are, and just how tuned out a big part of the potential electorate is said to be alienated by the whole political state of things these days?

Azi Paybarah: Oh, I'm not surprised. I think there's a good number of people who might be tuning in just to hate watch like a car crash that you can't turn yourself away from. There's going to be so many people who tune in, not just to cheer for their side, but to really see the other person trip up, make a mistake. I expect a lot more people to actually hear about the debate and hear more about the debate the morning after or on social media. If this would've been eight years ago, we would've been talking about the kind of emails that people are getting about the debate hours afterwards. People are going to open up their phones the morning after and see their X feeds or their TikTok full of what each side says happened at the debate.

Brian Lehrer: In a way, there's nothing so new about that soundbites driving what most people see after a debate, since most people don't sit in front of their televisions for 90 minutes. I mentioned in the intro, the new stuff this year how easy it is to make deep fakes, the videos that might show Trump or Biden standing up there saying something they did not even remotely say at all in real life. That's yet another thing that each campaign maybe one more than the other has to compete with.

Azi Paybarah: It is easier today to manipulate video and audio than it has ever been, and it is only getting easier. The problem that creates is a lack of trust. If you didn't see it with your own eyes, did it really happen? The sources of news that people are relying on become even more important in an age where manipulation is so easy to be done. The other thing that I think is being overlooked to some degree is an older-fashioned version of misinformation, which is literally saying something not true and pointing to something and expecting people not to look at it.

You don't need a lot of technology to lot. It happens all the time in politics. The only question is, is there a penalty for misinforming your supporters or your audience? It happens so many times, particularly on some other networks where people misstate what actually happens. It's not a very sophisticated campaign. It's just people lying or just not even bothering to fact-check basic information.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, what will you be watching for in Thursday night's Presidential debate, or you be the debate coach? Whoever your candidate is, how should they approach this debate, what should they say to persuade the persuadable or motivate their basis, or what questions do you have for Washington Post breaking political and campaign news reporter, Azi Paybarah? 212-433-WNYC, call or text, 212-433-9692. Azi, one lens that I'm going to watch the debate through is how much they seem to be playing for turnout from their parties bases versus how much trying to persuade any persuadable voters in the swing states. Do you have a read on how much of either of those to expect from either candidate?

Azi Paybarah: It feels to some degree that Biden is making an argument to moderates, not people who are already in his base, but people who might have voted for Trump once that are possibly reconsidering. That's not really a large number of people, but it's a small enough number of people that it could be decisive. When Biden talks about Trump is different after the January 6th attacks on the Capitol, he's giving permission for people who like some of Trump's policies, who like some of Trump's ideas, and who don't want to feel attacked for liking him before.

By explaining that Trump is different after he lost in 2020 and after the January 6th attack, Biden is talking to a segment of people who may be looking for an off-ramp without having their ego challenged. The question about Donald Trump is, will he be talking to his base about, "I've been wrong, I've been victimized, the court cases were unfair," or is he going to try to talk to people who pull up to a gas station and say, "Man, that's a lot of money for gas," or "Those eggs are a little bit more expensive than what I remember." Is he going to talk to those people? Is he going to talk about himself or is he going to talk about some economic challenges that people feel? That's what I'm looking for.

Brian Lehrer: There are two kinds of swing voters in a way, at least two kinds of swing voters. Actually, as I'm thinking about it as I'm saying it, I'm going to identify three types of swing voters. One is--

Azi Paybarah: I love this math.

Brian Lehrer: -in the middle between Biden and Trump and deciding, as they may in any race, some of those kinds of independence between a Democrat and a Republican. Another swing voter is from the base of either party, either motivated enough to turn out, and this I think is a bigger problem for Biden this year, motivated enough to turn out when they don't think the candidate is passionate enough on their side or they just stay home. Maybe Trump's got a version of that too actually, maybe the 20% or so of people who voted for Nikki Haley in the primaries but don't like Biden won't vote for the Democrat, but they think Trump is too out there.

Maybe that's a Republican version of base voters who could stay home in November. Then the third swing voter category is those who might actually vote for a third-party candidate like an RFK Junior who, by the way, listeners, in case you haven't heard, did not make this debate. He came close by getting the required 15% in a number of respected polls, but he hasn't gotten himself on the ballot in enough states to get enough electoral votes if the election were held today to even theoretically be elected president. CNN disqualified him under those rules from this debate. Azi, three kinds of swing voters.

Azi Paybarah: You could even put Paul Ryan, the former House speaker, in the category of a committed conservative warrior who is not going to vote for Joe Biden, but has also said he's not going to vote for Donald Trump, and he is going to write in some Republican's name. It's amazing to see people write off one candidate for being so egregious and yet still finding fault with their alternative.

Brian Lehrer: That's right. It so frustrates a lot of Biden supporters or just a lot of other never-Trump people who would say what Paul Ryan will do, as you just described it, is as good as a vote for Trump.

Azi Paybarah: There are plenty of Biden supporters who say, if you care about democracy, if you really think there is an existential crisis, what fault does Biden have that is not outweighed by the threat that's posed by Donald Trump? Now that's the argument that the Biden campaign makes. Donald Trump's campaign is much more about, who do you like more, me or him? It's almost a vibes-based feel when you hear some of the arguments that they put out.

Brian Lehrer: Osita in Port Chester, you're on WNYC. Hello, Osita.

Osita: Yes, Brian. Good morning.

Brian Lehrer: Good morning.

Osita: I wanted to know, would they be able to do fact-checking while the debate is going on, the moderators?

Brian Lehrer: That is a great question. I guess we should say because we haven't said it yet. The moderators are Jake Tapper and Dana Bash from CNN. Azi, to Osita's question, and I've moderated debates, and so I know this is part of the prep for that seat, moderators always have to decide whether to try to fact-check in real-time when let's say one candidate more than the other spews a stream of lies. I won't name any names. Any indication how they intend to play it or an opinion on how they should. The other way to go is lay back and decide that fact-checking is the opponent's job, not the moderator's job, and you just risk looking biased if you try to do it.

Azi Paybarah: If anyone has watched CNN and particularly watched Jake Tapper, you can see that he often tries to fact check in real-time or at least will put an explanatory comma shall we say in somebody who asserts a fact even if that fact is not verified or has not been vetted by the moderator. Jake Tapper is often very good about this. I expect him to do a version of that. Of course, there's plenty of more fact-checking that can be deeper that's done offsite when the camera isn't on. I expect a lot of CNN employees and my own colleagues at The Washington Post to be doing a lot of fact-checking as quickly as we can. I expect Jake Tapper and Dana Bash to intercede and step in when something demonstratively false is stated. I don't think they're going to simply rely on an opponent to declare what is and is not a fact when it is so apparent.

Brian Lehrer: Why do you think Trump accepted this debate with these moderators because Tapper and Bash have been pretty tough on Trump during the Trump era?

Azi Paybarah: I love this question. You ready for this one?

Brian Lehrer: Yes.

Azi Paybarah: Because if you are Donald Trump, it is in some ways a no-lose situation. If you did well, you could say, I walked into CNN, a place that Biden supporters like and I won. If he loses, I expect Donald Trump and his allies to say, "Look, CNN never liked me. Jake Tapper never liked me. Therefore, how did you expect me to win?" I think he has an escape argument already built in. Even this morning, just a few hours ago, Trump's campaign spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, was on CNN, and instead of answering questions, she proceeded to attack the network and they cut her off and abruptly ended the interview, a preview of what CNN may do if at a debate a candidate starts going widely off course and not answering questions.

Brian Lehrer: You can't just stop the debate, but I'm sure he's got those talking points ready to go. You can just imagine. That's another question, a follow-up to Osita's call. What do you do if you're the moderators and that happens, that in real-time, one candidate or the other, and we know in this case, it's overwhelmingly likely it to be Trump, starts aggressively accusing you of bias? Do you defend yourself or turn the other cheek to not wind up in a debate or roll yourself?

Azi Paybarah: I think what Dana Bash and Jake Tapper have often done in their interviews is put the focus right back on the issue, right back on the question. The audience I don't think cares as much about hurting Jake Tapper's feelings or Dana Bash's feelings, but the audience does want to hear answers. I think people who are tuning in would understand it when the moderator redirects the question and says, "Look, this isn't about either one of us sitting here. This is about the issue that voters are going to be deciding upon. If you don't answer that question, we're going to move on.

to the person that does."

Brian Lehrer: Danny in the West Village, you're on WNYC with Azi Paybarah from The Washington Post. Hi, Danny.

Danny: Hi. How are you doing, Brian?

Brian Lehrer: Doing all right. What do you got?

Danny: Good. I was amazed to read yesterday for the first time that Thursday's debate is not going to be commercial-free. That astonished me and got me wondering, who is going to be deciding who the advertisers are? Of course, a funnybone side of me wishes it'll be a whole bunch of new medications with endless side effects like we see all the time but--

Brian Lehrer: Yes, which is just an indication, by the way, of who watches cable news these days, older people. A lot of medications wind up being in the advertising. Why do you ask, Danny? Are you concerned that who sinks money behind this debate might affect the content or the positioning of the moderators in some way? Why do you ask? Oh, Danny's gone. Okay. Any thoughts about that? There will be, I think they said two commercial breaks. I'm sure there's a lot of competition by a lot of advertisers since this is supposed to be heavily watched to get those spots.

Azi Paybarah: I don't know who's going to be advertising. I'm sure a lot of people would like to. It also serves as a very jarring reminder that the way a lot of people are getting their views of the candidates, it's through some kind of commercial lens. The networks are not run-- CNN is not running this without ads and that's the way that they generate money, even if the ads are discounted for whatever reason. People are getting their information mediated through some type of for-profit commercial venture, and that's just the way things happen in America until something very different changes.

Brian Lehrer: We'll continue in a minute with Azi Paybarah and more of your calls, more questions that I have too on Thursday night's debate coming up between Biden and Trump. 212-433 WNYC, 433-9692. I'll also ask Azi a question before we wrap up, since he's got a deep New York journalism roots as well, but now covering the national scene, whether he thinks there are national implications from the Bowman-Latimer primary, whether the way that turns out tomorrow might influence how anybody campaigns in a general election for Congress anywhere around the country coming up this fall. We'll do that too. Stay with us. Brian Lehrer on WNYC.

[MUSIC]

Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC as we continue to preview Thursday night's debate. Very high stakes for some of the reasons we've been describing, especially since there are so many kind of tuned-out Americans, you're probably not one of them if you listen to the show on a regular basis. So many Americans turned off to politics generally, only marginally engaged with the details of any policy issue. They know what they feel in their guts, but if they watch the debate, which the polls indicate so many Americans will, it could start to tip the scales more seriously in one direction or another, in a race that the polls have so close.

A very, very high-stakes debate by all accounts this Thursday night. We're talking about it with Azi Paybarah who covers politics and breaking campaign news for The Washington Post, and you at 212-433 WNYC, 433-9692, call or text. Again, you can give advice to your candidate of choice, be the debate coach, be the debate prep partner, or just ask a question or tell us what you would like to hear them address. Natalie in Manhattan, I think wants to play debate coach, you're on WNYC. Hi, Natalie.

Natalie: Hello. Hello. I'm so happy that you're calling on me because I have something important to say. First of all, as far as the narrator is concerned, whenever Trump makes any kind of criticism or comment about them, they should completely ignore it and just go on with their agenda. Now, as far as Biden is concerned, he always uses these terms like an untruth or not true. I think he should call it a lie or call him what he is and point his finger at him every time he tells a lie and say, "That was a lie. You are a liar, you're a liar, you're a liar," and just keep beating on that because that's very important that people don't hear an untruth that's very dressed up cosmetically. He should just say he's lying over and over again. That's what I think.

Brian Lehrer: Natalie, thank you very much. It reminds me, Azi, of the early days of the Iraq War in the George W. Bush administration, and you were in journalism then so tell me if you remember it the same way, where things would come from the Biden administration about conditions in Iraq when they were trying to talk-

Azi Paybarah: The Bush administration, I think.

Brian Lehrer: -people into supporting-- What did I say? The Bush administration tried to talk people into supporting the war and journalism outlets would say, "That is factually untrue," or "This isn't supported by evidence." Then there was a lot of pressure from the more activist community on journalists to just use the word lie if they're lying to us and Al Franken wrote that book, lying liars and the lies they tell, it was something like that. I think honestly, in the last 20 years, it's become much more common to see the word lie, and very much applied to Trump, just used flat-out.

Azi Paybarah: Yes. I definitely remember hearing somebody say that the evidence they presented at the UN was a "slam dunk", and then obviously it turned out to not be. There has been a lot of, shall we say, pearl-clutching about whether or not to use the word lie. 20 years ago, for a reporter to even interrupt, not only a colleague but a politician who was saying something that was not true or not verified, would've been its own news story. Now, the ceiling has become the floor and it's now required.

There is so much information and so much content that is being fired at people every single second of every day that it is incumbent upon people who know what's accurate who know what's true to be able to say it in the clearest, most concise way possible so that as many people can understand it without having to invest their most precious resource, and that's their time. I think if there's a way for like Jake Tapper or Dana Bash to keep the focus on the issues, keep the focus on the questions, and call out things that are not unverified, I think everyone is going to learn a lot more about these candidates more than they even expect to learn.

Brian Lehrer: Kylie in Northern Virginia wants to play debate coach. Hi, Kylie. You're on WNYC.

Kylie: Good morning. Yes, I'm going to try to play debate coach, but I'm going to ask a question so maybe we'll all play together. I think that in terms of my coaching, that Biden needs to come across as what I'm going to call a reformed effective agitator. He has to demonstrate that he knows enough about how the system operates but also acknowledge that the system is broken. The reason I'm saying that is because, in a lot of my family circles in particular, they're saying the system is broken.

To say that Trump, or that a vote for a third party candidate is a vote for Trump, and that that's a threat to democracy, that's not really compelling to them because they're saying, "Biden is a threat to democracy too." Then my question is, since we have so much information on Biden since he's been around for so long, can he actually do that? Can he present himself as someone who really does have the depth of knowledge to know where the system needs to change but then also present himself as an agitator to go inside and actually make those changes happen?

Brian Lehrer: What do you think, Azi? That's a really good question.

Azi Paybarah: Oh, that is a great question. Jake and Dana better move over and make room for you. It is going to be very difficult for Joe Biden, who has been in elected office since I believe the age of 29, to not be burdened with all the challenges that government represents. One of the things that Donald Trump had said to Hillary Clinton in 2016 was, "If you didn't like the laws about taxation, you should have changed them. Don't blame me for taking advantage of what you made legal."

How inaccurate that statement is, we could put it aside for just half a second, but the structure of that argument is that it's blaming the incumbent for all of the things that government represents. How does Joe Biden come forward and say, "I'm different, I represent change?" He makes that argument by saying you have to elect not just him but senators and Congress members who will vote for his agenda. That's where some of the down-ballot races really come in. It's very hard for a president as a candidate to ask for your vote while also saying, "Your vote's not enough. I need you to vote for other people to join me." It's a tricky thing for candidates to get across when it's often a very binary choice between them and the person sitting right across the podium from them.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. Kylie, thanks for suggesting that. Opening up this line of conversation, I'm going to continue it with Azi by reading a couple of texts that have come in that exemplify, I think, the challenge for Biden being an insider, but trying to look like he's enough of an activist in particular ways. Talk about fact-checking. Here's a listener who fact-checked something that you said, Azi. Listener writes, "Your guest just referenced the price of gasoline," this was 20 minutes ago already, "incorrectly by all accounts.

Gas is cheaper now than it was a dozen years ago. Not just cheaper when adjusted for inflation, just plain old cheaper in raw dollars. Inflation is still around a bit, but gas is not part of it. Please stop letting people say this." Assuming that's accurate. It implies one of the challenges for Biden when so many people tell the posters that inflation is their number one issue. Because they're not thinking about compared to 2012, they're thinking about compared to 2022. He's got the challenge of making a big-picture argument that competes with a small-picture argument.

Azi Paybarah: Right. A voter may also just be thinking about it whenever the last time they noticed the price. You and I look at politics and look at a lot of these things for our work, and we take a lot of notes. If you're busy getting your kids to summer camp or just going to work, you may not be writing down exactly how much gas costs this week compared to last year or four years ago or whenever someone got elected. A lot of people will just see it and notice it whenever they think that there has been change, and then they'll look at it and say, "Oh, it is different," or, "It feels different," or, "My dollar isn't going as far."

Fact-checking people when they are equipped with some emotional understanding of their own life is a very tricky thing. In New York City, you'd often hear the former police commissioner Bill Bratton say, "Even if you're not victimized by a crime, if you think you might be, that might give you the feeling that the city isn't safe, even if statistics say otherwise." A lot of what Joe Biden talks about when it comes to the economy is saying, "The numbers are going in the right direction but I understand if you don't feel that, I understand if it hasn't come down to your kitchen table or your pocketbook, and there's still more work to be done and that's why I need a second term." That's what Biden tries to argue.

Brian Lehrer: On this topic, another listener writes, "Since inflation/high prices is the biggest concern for many voters, and especially Trump voters, I hope Biden points out that the tariffs Trump plans are inflationary. Everything will be more expensive." That gets to how granular a policy debate this is going to be, Thursday night, as opposed to broad sweeps of personal attacks or notions of democracy. I think that's one of the things that I'll be watching for. I hope it is a policy-oriented debate.

Azi Paybarah: That would be fantastic. There was a very good journalist who I know once told me that when he was interviewing candidates and people running for office, a lot of people have almost like a comedian five or seven minutes worth of material, and if you give them more time, then you realize who actually knows what they're talking about and who doesn't. To have candidates speak uninterrupted about a policy issue, I think it'd be really revealing.

Brian Lehrer: Let's see. I'm looking for this other one. Oh, here it is. Another text that suggests the question that the caller Kylie in Northern Virginia was raising, or her debate suggestion for Biden to try to look like an inside agitator in a good way, even as he's an establishment incumbent candidate. This listener asks, "How will Biden handle the fact that the majority of Americans oppose his support for Israeli genocide in Gaza?" Now, obviously, genocide is a loaded word. It's a word that Biden doesn't use.

Do a majority of Americans, as this listener suggests, really believe that it's genocide? Maybe not, but it suggests part of the tension for Biden, right? Because there is a writer who probably hates Trump, but is disgusted with Biden because of his Gaza policy. I'm wondering if and how the moderators will ask an Israel-Gaza question. Because, of course, part of the left flank of the Democratic Party is angry at Biden for enabling Israel's side of the war as much as he has. Biden does criticize Netanyahu.

Just yesterday, I think you had this in the post, Netanyahu was reportedly expressing frustration with Biden for withholding some heavy armaments. I wonder if you have a take on how Biden might walk that line, or on the other side, if Trump is going to position himself as more of a pro-Israel hawk than Biden is. Because I think Trump has tried to lie a little low on the issue of this war other than to claim October 7th wouldn't have happened if I was president, which is just bluster, and doesn't tell us anything about what he would do tomorrow different from Biden.

Azi Paybarah: I think you're exactly right. Joe Biden has tried to make the argument that he was supportive of Israel when they were responding to the October 7th attack, which was horrific in ways that words cannot even fully express. He has also more recently begun to make the case that what is happening in Gaza is a humanitarian crisis that needs to be addressed, and that the people who can help determine that fate is the Israeli government.

That the way to a lasting peace is not solely through military force, but through humanitarian efforts. I think that's the message that Biden has been articulating. You're right, that the only thing that Donald Trump has said is, "This wouldn't have happened if I was here." That is not really a policy prescription. That's not really telling people who are upset with Biden what Trump would do in office.

Brian Lehrer: Have you been following the Latimer-Bowman race, by the way? You have deep roots, as I mentioned, in New York journalism. You only recently joined The Washington Post on their national desk. A difference, I'm going to talk about this a little bit in the next segment too, which is on the New York primary, generally including that race, but what you just described as the Biden position on the war, that they'll never get an ultimate resolution that's in Israel's interest through military force alone.

Biden has been saying Israel should take a step back in Gaza and other things. In his words, Latimer as he's being supported by APAC doesn't say those things. He can come off as being to the right of Biden as being closer to Netanyahu, which may or may not reflect people in the district. Even the voters in the district who don't like Bowman, who think Bowman is too far to the left, Latimer arguably is further to the right than Joe Biden is, which means maybe than the district is. I wonder if you've looked at this at all.

Azi Paybarah: I have tried to wrap my arms around the Bowman-Latimer race, and it is complicated in part because of APAC support of Latimer, because of their rhetoric on Israel and the war that's happening in the Middle East. There's also other issues that are at play here. Latimer has for years represented parts of Westchester and has deep roots in connections and a real record of service in the area. Bowman has had a number of controversies and missteps that leave even some of his allies scratching their head. Most notably, like pulling a fire alarm when he said he was rushing to go [crosstalk] cast a vote.

One of the issues that's going to come out of this is whoever wins, each side is going to say, "Well, it's because of X number of issues." Candidate quality may be one of the determining factors in this race, and that makes it harder to export the lessons from this race into other races. Now Bowman is one of the squad members. He's been critical of Israel's military response to the Hamas attacks. Other people who are in the squad have also been supported by Democratic primary challengers who position themselves as more regular Democrats, more allied with Biden.

One of the arguments that APAC makes in their paid advertising against Bowman and against the person running against Cori Bush is that they went to Congress with the right intentions, but lost their way and are more out for themselves than for you. That is an argument that is not very complicated, and it can really resonate with voters who are just tuning into the race and learning about all the issues.

Brian Lehrer: Debbie on the Upper West Side, one more call for Azi Paybarah on the Trump-Biden debate coming up Thursday night. Hi, Debbie.

Debbie: Hi. I just have one question. Thank you for being you, we rely on you, all of us. Anyway.

Brian Lehrer: Very nice.

Debbie: I'm wondering why Project 2025 has been brought up more often. I hope during the debate it's alluded to, because it is one thing that comes out of the Republican Party. They can't claim it's fake news, they can't claim Biden said it. Biden emphasizes on what he's done and clearly isn't resonating with particularly the undecided voters. I think undecided voters are people who had only voted for, gone back and forth, and they really don't know who they're voting for.

This is their document. This to me is a gift to the Democratic Party. If people are directed to and know about Project 2025 from The Heritage Foundation, there's no way the Republican Party can come back and say, "None of this is true." To me, this is such a gift because it cuts through all the things that are not working. This is in the Republican Party's own words.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, you hope that this is going to come up explicitly in the debate. They would have to describe it. We've done an explicit segment on Project 2025. We'll no doubt be doing more as the general election campaign gets further engaged. Just to give listeners a little background, here's a BBC article called Project 2025: The Trump presidency wish list, explained. It says it was produced by the Conservative Heritage Foundation, one of several think tank proposals for Trump's platform over more than 900 pages.

It calls for sacking thousands of civil servants, expanding the power of the president, dismantling the Department of Education and other federal agencies, and sweeping tax cuts. That doesn't even get into the anti-climate aspects and other Project 2025 things. There's a long list of, as Debbie accurately says, on paper conservative agenda items for Donald Trump, if he were to be reelected president. I guess what they could do, the moderators could do on Thursday night is pick some of the more explosive ones of the items on that list and say, "Mr. Trump, will you do this if you're elected?"

Azi Paybarah: Yes. That would be a fascinating thing to do, but one of the challenges is taking Trump at his word. He's changed his position on a number of issues, and if he says yes one day, it's not clear to be yes tomorrow. To Debbie's point, as this thing being a gift for Democrats, one thing to keep in mind I would suggest is that what you may consider disqualifying for support, someone else may not. In fact, that may be the exact reason why somebody is supporting Donald Trump is because of those issues that are in Project 2025, and if more people only knew about it.

I think what the Biden campaign is trying to do is talk to people who may actually agree with Trump on policy issues, but don't agree with him on his character. I think even people who like Trump's ideas have often found themselves troubled by his conduct. I think that's where the Biden people think that they can pick up the biggest swath of votes, is by steering away from those policy issues and by attacking Trump.

Brian Lehrer: I don't know. There are definitely political analysts who say character has proven to be a losing issue over the long history of American politics. Look at Bill Clinton. The day he was impeached for lying under oath about sex with an intern was the day of his highest popularity rating because people thought his policy is on their side and stopped talking about somebody's character. They're not there to be the Pope.

They're there to represent me in policy. We'll see how much that can carry the day, or how much the Biden advisers actually decide to go after character on Thursday night. Hey, last question, Azi. I mentioned at the top that the political columnist, John Heilemann, wrote in his Puck News newsletter this morning that many insiders think this might be the only debate, even though a second one is already scheduled for September. I couldn't find where he backed that up with anything. Have you heard anything like that?

Azi Paybarah: I haven't, but there is a history of Donald Trump flirting with the idea of pulling out of events. When he was showing up to the New York Times for his first interview, I think after the election or something, he was threatening to not participate minutes before walking through the door. I think Donald Trump plays the will-he-or-won't-he game as part of his leftover message from his days as a reality TV star.

Brian Lehrer: Azi Paybarah, covering politics and campaigns for The Washington Post these days. The debate obviously is Thursday night. By the way, it's a CNN debate, but they have made it available to, I guess, any major network that wants it. You don't have to have cable to be able to watch the debate Thursday night. I think the old line networks, most of them are picking it up, ABC, NBC, CBS, Azi, right?

Azi Paybarah: I believe so. I also expect it to stream online and to pop up on my TikTok feed in my phone.

Brian Lehrer: There you go. Azi, thanks a lot.

Azi Paybarah: Thank you so much.

 

Copyright © 2024 New York Public Radio. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use at www.wnyc.org for further information.

New York Public Radio transcripts are created on a rush deadline, often by contractors. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of New York Public Radio’s programming is the audio record.