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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. Now we'll continue our latest Brian Lehrer Show quiz series in which you can test your knowledge, win prizes, and learn stuff at the same time. Last fall, we did a series of Geo quizzes to see how well where things are. Just before New Year's, we did our end-of-year news quiz. Now we're in a seven-part Life By The Numbers quiz series, we launched it yesterday with the Population By The Numbers quiz based mostly on the 2020 census.
Today, it's a Public Opinion By The Numbers quiz. The questions will be for you to guess what percentage of people support certain policies or politicians. Call in if you want to play at 212-433-WNYC. That of course is our on-air number, not our membership drive donation's number. Call in if you want to play, we'll never ask you for a donation on the air. 212-433-9692. If you get three in a row right, we'll give you a choice of prizes. Brian Lehrer Show New York City skyline mug, or a Peace, Love and Brian Lehrer tie-dye t-shirt. That's for three answers right in a row.
Call in if you want to take a shot, 212-433-WNYC. It's a little like Family Feud. You know that game show, "Survey says." You're trying to guess what the percentage of the American public is that supports certain policies or politicians.
For example, and spoiler alert, the first question will be, what percentage of the public in a recent poll thinks Roe v. Wade should be upheld? What percentage thinks Roe v. Wade should be upheld? If you think you can guess that number within 10 percentage points, call up and get us started, and we'll take it from there with other public opinion quiz questions. Again, if you get three in a row right, we'll give you a choice of a Brian Lehrer Show New York City skyline mug or a Peace, Love and Brian Lehrer tie-dye t-shirt, that's for three right answers in a row. Call in if you want to take a shot at 212-433-WNYC, 433-9692.
With me as a co quiz leader and somebody who actually knows something about polling and public opinion is Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which does the well-known Marist Poll. Hi Lee, thanks for riding along on this. Welcome back to WNYC.
Lee Miringoff: My pleasure. Good morning, Brian.
Brian Lehrer: While people are getting in line to play, want to start us off by just telling us one or two of your own recent most interesting poll findings at Marist. What does the survey say in your world these days?
Lee Miringoff: Well, we're going to be talking about a lot of very serious things in a few moments as a world beset with real challenges. I thought I would try something a little bit different. About 30 years ago, I decided, how does a pollster come to terms with advancing middle age? We started asking a question which we've asked each year, coinciding with my approaching birthday, which reads, "Do you consider 39 to be young middle-aged or old? Next year, do you consider 40 to be young middle-aged or old?" All the way up. I figured this was kind of like a haha jokey number.
In the beginning, when I was 39, I was worried about becoming middle-aged. No, no, people still thought it was young. It's been hanging in there pretty well, until last year, when I turned the big 70. That I know, in the interest of transparency, I should tell everybody what exactly the numbers were, but I will tell you that the tragedy of that particular poll was when I turned from 69 to 70, people started thinking that my age was no longer middle age, but the number old came up and won.
The big question, Brian, and I'll take your advice on this. Should I stop now, or should I continue this may and ask whether people consider 71 to be young middle-aged, or old? This is not a good situation, I must say.
Brian Lehrer: It sounds like you got your answer at age 70. After that, you can pretty much predict the poll results on whether it's old or not without doing the poll, but I will say this and you asked for advice. Think of it in contemporary terms. I don't know if it was the AARP or somebody who came out with an expression or an article a few years ago, the way people are living now, 70 is the new 50.
Lee Miringoff: [chuckles] Well, okay, then, that gives me some hope for optimism. Certainly, people who are over 80 years of age, do think that 70 is still middle-aged. It's a little bit of a, where you stand depends upon where you sit kind of thing. I have my trepidations about going forward.
Can I say one thing? You've been talking a lot about the promotion, and I'll tell you why I listen to WNYC. I need dependable information. I need things I can know is accurate and reliable. That's why I listen to all you guys because there's so much stuff going around. This is too important right now, where things are going on. If it's the pandemic, or the economy, or what's going on in Ukraine, I got to know what I'm listening to and whether this is reliable. I just want to throw my two cents, or maybe $2 in.
Brian Lehrer: Thanks very much for that. Thank you very much. Now we know you can take that phrase to your next birthday party, 70 is the new 50. Lisa in Hastings-on-Hudson, are you ready for a quiz question? Hi, Lisa.
Elisa: Hello, it's Elisa. Thank you, Brian. Thank you for your work. I am ready for the quiz.
Brian Lehrer: All right. I'm going to ask the first question, and then Lee will pick them up after that since I teased this one going in. In November, an ABC News Washington Post poll asked if people think Roe v. Wade, that is a constitutional right to an abortion should be upheld by the Supreme Court. Within 10 points, what percentage said, yes, uphold Roe v. Wade?
Elisa: 78%.
Brian Lehrer: Oh, that is wrong. I'm sorry to say. Lisa, you're not going to win a prize, but thank you for playing. Lee we'll reveal this. It's still pretty overwhelming. 60% said uphold Roe compared to just 27% who said it should be overturned. Is that consistent with other polls as far as you know?
Lee Miringoff: Yes, it is. In fact, we've done a lot of research on that very question, because it is so an important one and it seems to be coming right back to page one. What's interesting about this, if you ask people if they're pro-life or pro-choice, you get one set of answers. If you ask a whole series of gradations, you'll find that the whole country or a large part of the country is actually somewhere in the middle zone on this. They don't want a big change, so they don't want Roe v. Wade overturned by the court. They don't want abortion on demand under any circumstances or every circumstance.
The idea of moving in a drastically different direction is not popular right now. The Supreme Court should they decide to do that, will be really stepping out of line with public opinion.
Brian Lehrer: Kendra in Amenia up in Dutchess County, you're on WNYC. Hi, Kendra.
Kendra: Hi.
Brian Lehrer: Lee, you want to hit her with the next quiz question. Actually, she's in your neck of the woods. Isn't Marist in Dutchess County?
Lee Miringoff: Yes, it is. Takes about 40 minutes to get from the western part of the county where Marist is, all the way to the Harlem Valley, which is where Amenia is.
Kendra: Exactly.
Lee Miringoff: It's a little bit of a schlep, but yes, it is all in one county. Let me think about something. Inflation. That's a good question. We just went through a whole pile of things. What percentage of people think inflation should be the number one priority of the Biden administration?
Kendra: I'm going to say-
Brian Lehrer: Well, say within 10 percentage points.
Lee Miringoff: Yes, yes.
Kendra: Okay. Let's say 68%.
Lee Miringoff: Wow. Your viewers are optimistic, the actual answer is 38%.
Brian Lehrer: Sorry, Kendra, thanks for playing. Go ahead, Lee.
Lee Miringoff: Number one issue, but not that many people.
Brian Lehrer: All right. I think you'll have a related question up next, I'm going to go right to Rob in Chatham. That's Chatham, New Jersey, not Chatham, New York. I know we have both. Hi, Rob, you're on WNYC.
Rob: Hey, Brian, how are you?
Brian Lehrer: Good. Go ahead, Lee.
Lee Miringoff: Okay. Let's turn to the same question, different item. We just heard about inflation, number one at 38%, what do you think President Biden's top priority should be according to the American people when it comes to violent crime? What percentage? Number one is 38%, that was inflation. Hint, it's got to be lower than 38%.
Brian Lehrer: What percentage said crime, violent crime, I think is the way you phrased it, should be the top priority of President Biden within 10 percentage points, Rob?
Rob: 24%.
Brian Lehrer: Still too high-
Lee Miringoff: Still too high.
Brian Lehrer: -only 10%.
Lee Miringoff: Only 10%.
Brian Lehrer: What do we learn from these two numbers? The number one thing that people said should be Biden's first priority was inflation at 38%. Number two was violent crime at 10%. I don't see climate on there. I don't see Ukraine on there. Maybe it was taken too early.
Lee Miringoff: That poll was done before the invasion.
Brian Lehrer: I don't see the pandemic on there. I don't see income inequality on there.
Lee Miringoff: It's being driven by inflation. It's being driven by crime, then most everything else is single digits.
Brian Lehrer: We're going to go next to Maria in the Bronx. Maria, you ready for a quiz question?
Maria: Yes, I am.
Brian Lehrer: All right, I'll do this one. One of the core proposals of president Biden's Build Back Better bill is a paid family leave provision for American workers. When the bill was first proposed last spring, there was a YouGov poll asking specifically if paid maternity leave should be an American right. There are other kinds of family leave too but this question was about paid maternity leave. Within 10 percentage points, what percentage of the respondent said yes, paid maternity leave should always be available?
Maria: Ooh. I'm going to be optimistic. 80%.
Brian Lehrer: Yes. 82% said paid maternity leave should always be available. How about that? Now Here's your follow up, Maria, and because these are turning out to be hard, we'll give you a prize for getting two in a row. The poll asked also if paid maternity and paternity leave should both be offered. What percentage said yes to that? In other words, when the fathers were also given the right. If 82% said paid maternity leave, what percentage within 10 points said paid parental leave regardless of the gender of the parent.
Maria: I bet it's lower of 70%.
Brian Lehrer: It was 68%. Maria, yay. We gave away a prize. Now you get your choice, which one do you want? A Brian Lehrer show mug or a Piece, Love and Brian Lehrer tie-dye t-shirt?
Maria: I would love the mug and I love those numbers. I'm glad that people are in favor of these options. Thank you.
Brian Lehrer: Thank you, Maria. Hang on. We'll take your address off the air. Lee, these very popular provisions of Build Back Better when you go down them tick, tick, tick, tick, and yet it can't get through the Senate. Are elected representatives out of touch with the American people?
Lee Miringoff: Well, unfortunately, the red states get reder and the blue states get bluer and the red states actually only represent 44% of the country. Democratic senators represent 56%. Then with the filibuster, it's very difficult when you don't have 50. Right now it's a 50/50 Senate and they didn't get all of them, the Democrats and that's what happened. Maybe they're going to break it up hopefully into pieces and maybe Senator Manchin, Sinema will be more welcoming of the individual pieces, if not the whole package.
Brian Lehrer: Julie in Westchester, you're on WNYC. Hi, Julie. Ready for a quiz question.
Julia: I am, so excited to be on.
Brian Lehrer: Lee, hit her up.
Lee Miringoff: Okay. Well, let's turn positive. Okay. Let's come up with something that feels a little better. What percentage of Americans said they felt generally optimistic that the end of the pandemic is nearing. What percentage of the Americans are now feeling better that generally be optimistic that the end of the pandemic is nearing that we've turned the corner within [unintelligible 00:14:08]
Julia: I'll say 75%.
Lee Miringoff: I'm sorry, what was the answer?
Julia: 75%.
Lee Miringoff: Yes. That's a winner. 72% think we've turned the corner. Brian, I feel if I had the power, I would throw in one credit from Marist College to the caller, but I can't do that, but one more question and they get the prize.
Brian Lehrer: One credit for free. Only 119 more and you'll have a whole bachelor's degree. Julie, here's one more question from Lee. If you get it right, then you'll win a prize.
Lee Miringoff: Okay. Before his state of the union message, what was the lowest point of Joe Biden's approval rating so far in his presidency last October, last December, or February right before the speech, his lowest approval rating so far as president, last October, last December or prior to the speech.
Julia: It'd be December, 2020.
Brian Lehrer: No, 2021.
Lee Miringoff: December '21.
Julia: I'm going to say February, just before the speech.
Lee Miringoff: Brian set up the prizes. We got a winner.
Julia: Thank you.
Brian Lehrer: Julie, wait to go. Thank you very much. Oh, I get to ask you if you'd rather have a Brian Lehrer Show tie-dye t-shirt or a Brian Lehrer Show mug.
Julia: I would love the mug.
Brian Lehrer: Okay. I got it.
Julia: I would love anything but mug is great.
Brian Lehrer: We'll take your address. This is not good news for the president because the answer to that question reveals that his popularity is at its lowest point, basically right now.
Lee Miringoff: Prior to the last week. He had to literally hit it out of the park on the state of the union. I think he did a lot of things that were very positive. Sometimes presidents get bounces after that. The question is if you get a bounce after the state union can it stick, do you make it long-lasting? Joe Biden, the good news was his numbers were low. The only way he had really to go was up. I think he got some support among Democrats who were drifting away.
My read of it was he was doing a decent job and we're in the field right now doing a poll and we will have it out over NPR and PBS tomorrow at noon. You can see what the current numbers are, whether Joe Biden got a bounce, and what do they think of his handling of Ukraine?
Brian Lehrer: Yes. You say his poll numbers are low, so he is got nowhere to go but up, that is definitely a pint glass is eight ounces full way to look at the world. Lydia in Brooklyn, you're going to be our last contestant for today. Hi, Lydia. Are you ready for a quiz question?
Lydia: Yes, sir. I am.
Brian Lehrer: All right. Let's see if we can have a winner in Brooklyn, Lee.
Lee Miringoff: Okay. Oh, here's one. This was done by CBS YouGov after the state of the union message. After the speech, what percent of viewers were left feeling that the president's policies will deal effectively with Russia. After the speech, as a result of his speech on Tuesday the state of the union, what percent of viewers had the feeling that his policies are going to deal effectively with handling the problems in Russia
Brian Lehrer: Within 10 percentage points.
Lydia: I'm going to say 64%.
Brian Lehrer: Whoa. Well, we're going to give her a grace period on this because that's 11 points off.
Lee Miringoff: Yes. That's too close.
Brian Lehrer: We're going to call that a yes and give her-- 53% is the answer. It was lower than your guess. People split really about 50/50 on whether they were confident in his Russia policies after the state of the union. All right. Last question. Let's see if Lydia can get a prize here.
Lee Miringoff: Okay. You got one? I'll find one.
Brian Lehrer: Sure.
Lee Miringoff: Filibuster's boring. We don't want to talk about-
[crosstalk]
Brian Lehrer: Oh, you know what? I saw the wrong thing. Actually, she was within the range because it was 71%. Wasn't it?
Lee Miringoff: That is correct. That was correct.
Brian Lehrer: All right. Here I'll throw in this one as the last question. What percentage of respondents after the state of the union address said they were left feeling proud after watching the state of the union? Again, within 10 percentage points, what percentage of respondents said they were left feeling proud after watching Joe Biden give that speech?
Lydia: I'm going to go again, I'm going to say 74%.
Brian Lehrer: Ooh, sorry. It was just 53%. Lydia, thanks for playing. There's, I don't know, an indication of a supportive public on Ukraine and maybe Biden can use that to turn his poll numbers around but divided on optimistic in general.
Lee Miringoff: Keep in mind that the people who watch the speech tend to be more supportive. If you have a democratic president, the viewers tend to be more democratic and if you have a Republican president, they tend to be more Republican. You should get a little bounce if you're the Democrat. The question is how big and can you make it stick?
Brian Lehrer: All right. Well, this was fun and we have a lot of questions that we had sketched out that we didn't get to. Why don't you come back and we'll do it again. Okay. We'll do a part too.
Lee Miringoff: I enjoyed this a lot. This is great.
Brian Lehrer: Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, and of course they run the Marist Poll. Thanks, Lee.
Lee Miringoff: Hey, my pleasure. That was a lot of fun.
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