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IRC on Where Next Year's Humanitarian Emergencies Will Be

Supporters of President Felix Tshisekedi try to get a view of him during the presidential elections in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2023.

David Miliband, president and chief executive officer of the International Rescue Committee, shares which countries are on the IRC's "watchlist," or the countries they determine are most at risk for humanitarian emergencies, and what his group is doing to prepare. Plus: Moses Mboka, a refugee from the Democratic Republic of Congo, shares his story of fleeing a war in the DRC (number 10 on the 2024 list) and eventually settling in Denver, where he and his family were helped by the IRC.

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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning again, everyone. We're going to stay on international news and international situations right now. We were talking about the Israel-Gaza situation before the news, and we'll continue to bring you a variety of perspectives on that, but looking at that as much as we have on this show and the media in general, because the intensity, obviously, of that situation means that there are conflicts occurring throughout the world that we haven't devoted enough time to.

The growing civil war in Sudan is currently being referred to as a forgotten war despite the thousands of civilian deaths there. There's also civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which The Nation magazine referred to as "The Big Little War You've Probably Never Heard Of" in a recent piece. While we won't be getting into the details of these massive conflicts today, we are going to look now at the growing threat of humanitarian crises around the world.

All three of these territories I just mentioned, Sudan, Congo, and what a report we're going to refer to calls the occupied Palestinian territories, are ranked within the top 10 on the International Rescue Committee's 2024 Emergency Watchlist. The goal of the report, to see, potentially, humanitarian crises, prepare resources, and posit solutions ahead of time as much as possible.

Joining us now to discuss the findings of the report is David Miliband, president and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, which helps and advocates for refugees around the world. Some of you know, he's the former British foreign secretary. Joining us also is Moses Mboka, who resettled here in the United States with his family after fleeing conflict in his home country of the Democratic Republic of Congo. He'll share a little of his story. Moses, welcome, thank you for joining us, and David, welcome back to WNYC.

Moses Mboka: Thank you very much.

David Miliband: Thank you, Brian. Very good to be with you.

Brian Lehrer: The report by the IRC identifies states at greatest risk for humanitarian crisis in 2024, and Sudan is number one on your list. David Miliband, tell us why.

David Miliband: Thanks very much. The IRC, as you know, is an organization that works to help people whose lives are shattered by conflict and disaster. Over the years, we've really refined our planning tool so that we now use 65 different qualitative and quantitative indicators to highlight the 20 countries most at risk of humanitarian disaster in the year ahead. We've turned that from being a management tool for the pre-positioning of people and goods in exactly the way that you referred to, to being something of a tool for public education as well.

Sudan comes top because of the number of people who are affected, 25 million people in humanitarian need, because of the percentage of the population that represents over half the population of that country, because of the impact on neighboring states, there are 1.6 million refugees already from Sudan, and because of the prospects that there will be intensification of the violence and spread of the violence in the year ahead.

If I could say a couple of other things just to provide a bit of context, as you say, it's hard to jump into all of the details, but just to give your listeners a bit of a sense of this. 300 million people in the world are dependent on humanitarian aid to survive. Fully 85%, 86% of them, so nearly all of them, live in the 20 countries that we highlight on our emergency watchlist. That includes about 75% of the people who are forcibly displaced as refugees or internally displaced people.

The report does go into some detail on each of the 20 countries, but it also, as you indicated, posits what needs to be done because one thing we know more than anything else, and I've said this before on your show, humanitarian crises that are not addressed, they don't go away, they get bigger, and they become a source of political instability as well as humanitarian need.

Brian Lehrer: Let's jump to number 10 on your list, and that is the Democratic Republic of Congo. We are also joined today by Moses Mboka, who's originally from Congo, joining us today from Colorado. He now lives in the United States. Moses, let me get into the Congo situation, which a lot of our listeners are totally unfamiliar with. No accident that The Nation called it "The Big Little War You've Probably Never Heard Of." Tell us more about your personal journey here, why did you come to the United States?

Moses Mboka: Thank you very much, Mr. Brian, for the privilege of having me on the show. Indeed, I'm very happy. As you say, my name is Moses Mboka, and I was born in the eastern part of the Congo, a place called Bukavu. I left my country more than 28 years ago because of war. When war broke, we had to flee together with my family, and we fled to the mountains where we hid there for 8 months before relocating in Kenya where we lived for another 24 years.

Now, that's a country where refugees don't get a work permit easily or legal documentation such as IDs. We have to fake our identities, we have to fake our names just to secure a place of work until the process of resettlement in the US came through the UNHCR, and thank God, together with my family, I have 12 family members who resettled in the United States. We arrived on 19th of September this year. Today, we are three months old, and we all live in Colorado, in Denver.

We thank God that we have hopes of the future here. We don't have to hide our identity. We don't have to hide from flying bullets. We don't have to fear whenever somebody knocks on our door. Here, we see opportunities, and we, me together with four of my siblings, are already working, and I'm working with a security company called Silverseal. We are really grateful to the IRC for the welcoming and the warmth that we continue to receive from them, sir. Thank you.

Brian Lehrer: Can I ask you, Moses, to describe to our listeners who may be totally unfamiliar with the situation over there, what the source of the war in the Congo is? How would you describe the causes of what's going on there that have caused the humanitarian crisis that you fled from?

Moses Mboka: Yes. The much that I know, I know I left my country when I was barely a boy, barely 10 years old. I understand that there were so many refugees coming from Rwanda who crossed to our village to seek refuge. There was also a very big camp nearby, so it was overpopulated, so my father saw it wise to welcome them in our compound where they set up their tents. He even offered to start a primary school and elementary school to offer them free education. I believe that was the cause of our departure.

They threatened to kill him. They accused him of helping and harboring enemies. They called them enemies, we didn't know why. One of them slid a note under the door and warned us to flee because they were coming to kill us. That night is the night we fled into the forest. As much as I can remember, there were conflicts all over. I couldn't really establish the cause, but they accused my father of harboring and helping enemies, and that was the reason why we had to flee our country.

Brian Lehrer: David Miliband, I see that 11 out of the 20 countries on your list of the places with the most potential for humanitarian crises in 2024, 11 of the 20 are on the continent of Africa with 8 of these countries ranking in the top 10. This may be a loaded question, but what's led to so many states on the continent of Africa winding up on this list and do they share circumstances?

David Miliband: It's not a loaded question, it's a factual question. It's an important question, important for your listeners to know or remember that there are 54 countries in Africa in total. There's a growing middle class which is present in many of the exuberant and growing cities of Africa, but in the 11 countries, there are some common themes. One is conflict, and the Democratic Republic of Congo is one example of that.

The conflict in that country involves non-state actors, rebel groups vying for power, and also vying for resources, the east of the Congo, I've been to Bukavu where Moses is from. It's rich in resources, and as you know, when there are resources, that can cause competition for resources. You've got, first of all, conflict. There are also external powers that are meddling and supporting different groups there for sway in the Eastern Congo, and that's been recognized in other parts of the continent as well.

Number one, conflict. Number two, the climate crisis, and I use the phrase climate crisis rather than climate change deliberately, for significant countries in Africa, the pressure on resources is being exacerbated by the climate crisis today. It's not tomorrow's problem, it's today's problem. It's making livelihoods much harder to find for subsistence farmers. It's also, this pressure on resources itself is an indirect source of conflict for obvious reasons. We know, around the world, that when there's pressure on resources, that's a source of conflict.

The third element is that governance is a real challenge. We've seen that there have been seven coups notably in West Africa in the 2020s, that compiles to about 20 in the first 20 years of this century, so there's a governance crisis as well, in part reflecting the economic, social, environmental pressures that governments are under. There are some common elements. I think that there's a fourth leg to the stool that's worth mentioning.

I think many Africans and many of my colleagues in Africa, or IRC has worked in Democratic Republic of Congo, just to take that as an example, since 1996, many African colleagues would say that the richer parts of the world have not helped them in the way that was appropriate. African countries' contribution, for example, to the climate crisis is very small.

The 20 countries on the watchlist, 14 of them are climate-vulnerable. They've contributed about 2% of global emissions, but the help that they get in adapting to climate change, adapting farms, adapting urban areas has been minuscule. I think they'd argue that there's a justice element, an injustice element to the global distribution of resources as well as local reasons for understanding the prevalence of some African countries on our watchlist.

Brian Lehrer: We have a caller who wants to weigh in on the situation in the Congo, and that's Joseph in Queens. Joseph, you are on WNYC. Hello.

Joseph: Brian. Thank you very much for taking my phone call, long-time listener. I want to thank your guest from Congo. My family do business in Congo, mostly Indian backgrounds from [unintelligible 00:12:38], and your English guest can confirm this. The problem with the Congo, after assassination of one of the best leader, Patrice Lumumba, which your guest from Congo will say, the Congo went to the haywire because Lumumba was trying to nationalize all these tribes that the Belgium dictator, we all know what Belgium dictator did to Congo, Rwanda, and all those areas, trying to tell them that, "Listen, we got to get together.

We have the biggest natural resources," as your guest just said a minute ago. The Congo can be the richest country in Africa and the world if the tribes get together. The problem with Congo, after Patrice Lumumba, the politicians from each side, they do not trust because the army [unintelligible 00:13:26] Belgium to just dismantle Lumumba. I'm coming from an Indian family that we believe in nationalism because we were in South Africa before, then we moved to Congo.

I'm just saying that this is unheard, that the Congolese haven't learned their lessons. Leaders after leaders coming to Congo. Congo, just can't say-- Either they escape, they come to West, they don't use the same thing that you had about an hour ago. The Jewish identity, the Congolese, they decide to put their national identity as Patrice Lumumba did in '60s, they will become the richest country in the world. They don't need to come to this country. They can make more money than Angola and Nigeria, and I--

Brian Lehrer: If they work it out. I'm just going to jump in for time, but thank you very much for sharing your experience as well as your point of view. Moses, I wonder what you were thinking as you were listening to Joseph.

Moses Mboka: Well, I heard him pretty loud and clear, and I believe he's quite correct. My country is very rich in resources, and it's very unfortunate that many of us are not able to benefit from those resources simply because there are leaders who are always vying or struggling among themselves who should get what and how and how much they should get out of it. It's quite unfortunate for me as a Congolese to always say that my country is rich in resources, but I have nothing to show out of it.

If only there could be some type of rules or procedures that could be put into place on how these resources can be managed so that most local people can also benefit from it. Because as far as I'm concerned, these resources have never been of help to any of us. My father worked in a company that exported these minerals, but we never benefited at all from it. We have nothing to show that we are a rich country. It's such a pity and it's very unfortunate, sir. We never benefit from it. It's correct.

Brian Lehrer: David Miliband, we've only got a few minutes left in the segment. Part of the premise here for us is that there are these other situations in the world that are not Israel and Gaza or Ukraine that are so intense and such humanitarian crises already as well as the potential, as you report identifies them to be even worse humanitarian crises in 2024. Should the US be playing more of a role? Obviously, the US is very involved in Israel-Gaza, what about in Sudan or in Congo?

David Miliband: Well, the short answer is yes, because the US is a global superpower and it wants to retain that position. All over the world, people and countries are comparing reactions to different crises. Frankly, they're comparing-- they're wondering whether the war between Israel and Hamas is going to distract from the situation in Ukraine. Ukrainians are asking that.

Elsewhere, people are asking, "How is the US going to sustain its global influence?" I would add, sustain the values that it was founded on and that it stands up for. We are facing a time of enormous international disorder, and I think there's a strategic interest as well as a moral interest in the US, not alone, but with allies, with others, trying to play a stabilizing role. You asked about Sudan. There's a understandable humility for those of us who are not from Sudan and not from the continent of Africa. That's appropriate, but the truth is that different parts of Africa and the Middle East are backing opposite sides in Sudan.

The Emirates, one ally of the US, is backing the rebels. Saudi Arabia, another ally of the US, is backing the government in Sudan, and there is not much sign of anyone holding the ring. There are some ceasefire or peace talks happening in Jeddah, in the capital of Saudi Arabia, but the Emiratis feel that they're excluded from that. You've got a weakness of the UN system, you've covered before on this show, the gridlock in the Security Council. My warning to people is that this degree of global risk without appropriate global engagement poses a real threat to American interests as well as to American values as well as to the lives of people around the world.

We have in our watchlist, and your listeners are welcome to visit the IRC website rescue.org to learn more. We show in there in five or six areas practical things that can be done now, not just with American money by the way but with other people's money as well, to mitigate the crises that are underway and also to prevent future crises. That involves real adaptation to local context, but it also means taking seriously the diplomatic and political sources of the humanitarian ruin that we see in too many places.

Brian Lehrer: The International Rescue Committee's 2024 Emergency Watchlist is out. We thank David Miliband, president and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, and Moses Mboka who resettled here in the United States with his family after fleeing conflict in his home country of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Thank you both very much for joining us.

David Miliband: Thanks so much.

Moses Mboka: Thank you very much, sir, for having us. God bless you.

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