Monday Morning Midterm Politics

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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. It's Monday, September 19th. Good morning, everyone. It's seven weeks and one day before election day. Early voting is a lot closer than that. The lead guest on most of the national Sunday talk shows was New York Mayor Eric Adams on the busing of migrants seeking political asylum, mostly from Texas to New York.

Some sent by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis last week to Martha's Vineyard in Massachusetts by plane, as has, of course, been in the news. Republican Senate candidate Joe O'Dea of Colorado said on NBC's Meet the Press that the busing to elsewhere and the flying to elsewhere is fair as thousands of the asylum-seekers arrive at the border states every week. He defended Florida Governor Ron DeSantis that way.

Joe O'Dea: People call what he did cruel. You know what's cruel is ignoring this issue. Democrats are ignoring it.

Brian Lehrer: Colorado Republican Senate candidate Joe O'Dea. The human rights group WOLA or W-O-L-A estimates that arrivals of migrants from Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela have more than quadrupled since 2021. In the 10-month period ending in July, this July just passed, it says there were 438,000 arrivals from those countries alone. That doesn't even include those coming from Guatemala and Honduras who had mostly been coming before and are still arriving in significant numbers to seek asylum too. Mayor Adams said on ABC's This Week program that he would be happy to coordinate with all 50 states and the federal government on housing for asylum-seekers while their cases are heard. He said, apparently, the busing is not about that.

Eric Adams: We reached out to Governor Abbott when we first discovered that he was compelling people to get on the bus. He was tagging them. He was sending them on a 45-hour ride without any proper food, water, or medical care. We reached out and stated that, "Let's coordinate and work together so we can deal with this crisis together." They refused to do so.

Brian Lehrer: "They refused to do so," Mayor Eric Adams on ABC yesterday. The influx from Venezuela and Cuba presents a new political dilemma for Republicans. Nicaragua too, really considering who's in charge of that country. These are countries with left-wing governments. Immigrants from those countries often vote Republican when they become citizens here, right?

That's especially important in Florida with its large Cuban population over the years, and yet it was largely Venezuelans who Governor DeSantis used as political pawns to send to Martha's Vineyard. A New York Times/Siena poll released in the last few days finds only a third of Latino voters say they are likely to vote Republican for Congress this year, but they are split about evenly on which party they say they agree with more on issues.

Among all voters, the poll finds Democrats have a lead by two points on the question of which party people will vote for, for Congress. Statistically, that's really a tie because it's within the poll's margin for error, but a tie means it's competitive, obviously, which is better than most midterm elections for the party that has the current president. Importantly, independent voters, listen to this stat, that's non-Democrats, non-Republicans, independent voters, right, see the country heading in the right direction significantly more than they did just two months ago.

In July, The Times/Siena poll found only 9% of independents said the country is headed in the right direction. Now, it has tripled to 27%. If it stays that way, that should be good for the Democrats, bad for the Republicans in the battle for control of Congress. With us now, Steven Shepard, senior campaigns and elections editor and chief polling analyst for Politico. Hi, Steve. Thanks for coming on again. Welcome back to WNYC. Do we have Steve Shepard?

Steven Shepard: Can you hear me, Brian?

Brian Lehrer: Now, I can hear you.

Steven Shepard: Okay.

Brian Lehrer: Hey, there. Welcome back to WNYC.

Steven Shepard: Thank you for having me.

Brian Lehrer: How important is that "right direction" finding among independents in The New York Times/Siena poll as far as you could tell?

Steven Shepard: Look, I think that it's pretty central to President Biden's recovery in the polls. Over the past few months, we've seen a lot of that movement come, yes, from Democratic voters who were dissatisfied with his job performance or became dissatisfied with his job performance, especially given the congressional inaction in Washington, but also among independents.

We're not seeing it at all among Republicans, which is perhaps not surprising in these polarized times, but we are seeing that recovery among independents. I think at the end of the day, a lot of those independent voters, especially those who describe themselves as moderate voters, not all independents do, but a good portion do, those are going to be the voters vacillating between candidates in both parties in key congressional, Senate, gubernatorial elections across the country.

To the extent that they are developing a more positive opinion about the direction of the country as we get closer to election day, that seems like a prerequisite for President Biden's party, for the Democratic party to have a decent shot of controlling the Senate in the New Year and maybe even an outside chance of keeping control of the House in the New Year. That is pretty critical. That's one of the many factors we're going to be watching over the next seven weeks and one day.

Brian Lehrer: Of course, it would be better for the Democrats if it was 57% of independents thinking the country is headed in the right direction or 77%, not 27%. Why has it gone up from 9% in the past three months? Really two months, July to September. What do they see suddenly as going in the right direction so many independents?

Steven Shepard: Look, the survey doesn't necessarily ask people follow-up questions like that, but I do think we're seeing a few things. One, in polling, when you ask voters if they've noticed, for example, that their gas prices have been going down, majority have noticed that the price of gasoline has been going down. I think voters also see that Washington has accomplished a few things, including the Biden administration has accomplished a few things that for voters on the left side of the median of the electorate priorities that they want to see get accomplished, whether or not the Inflation Reduction Act actually reduces inflation remains to be seen.

It does make big investments in health care and in climate and energy that, I think, have been big priorities for a lot of voters. Plus, there is just, I think, a natural, almost dead cat bounce if something does happen in Washington. If Congress passes something and the President signs it into law, then that shows that perhaps Washington is not as fundamentally broken as maybe some of those voters had believed.

Brian Lehrer: Let me ask you a polling analysis, kind of geeky question. Democrats also went up in the country-is-on-the-right-track question from 27% saying right track in July to 50% now. Since they are self-identified as Democrats already, does that finding matter to who wins control of Congress?

Steven Shepard: I think it does. All signs point to that this is going to be an election with extremely high turnout. We are just coming. We're just four years removed from the highest turnout midterm elections in 100 years, sort of in the modern political era. I think every sign that we look at--

Brian Lehrer: You mean the 2018 midterm elections when there was the big backlash to Trump and Democrats won so many swing districts, right?

Steven Shepard: Right. Recall in 2014 was actually the lowest turnout midterm election in 100 years. We swung wildly in that four-year period with, obviously, Donald Trump's election as president. It's kind of the midpoint of it. Every sign we'd look at right now points to even higher turnout this time around and this midterm election. When you look at who showed up to vote in the primaries, when you look at the turnout in special elections and that Kansas ballot referendum since the Supreme Court's decision on abortion, when you look at these polls and you see how engaged voters say they are in this election.

You're looking at almost near-presidential election levels of engagement for a midterm election, something that we don't typically see. Not that we're that far out, but this far out from the election, voters in midterm years are usually not this engaged in the campaign. Every sign we see points to very high turnout.

To the extent that it's both parties that are mobilized is, I think, what keeps Democrats in the ballgame here when it comes to controlling Congress and some of these key governorships in swing states like Arizona and Wisconsin, for example. In 2014, that wasn't the case. It was only Republican voters who were excited to vote in that midterm election, not Democratic voters. That was largely the same deal in 2010. If Democrats want to avoid a midterm wipeout, their voters feeling better about the direction of the country, that's kind of key to the--

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, we can take your calls on the midterm election campaign seven weeks before election day. Comments, questions, citizen punditry, all welcome here. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. Also, in a few minutes, our Nancy Solomon is going to join this conversation with a look at one very competitive swing district in New Jersey, where she has discovered some interesting developments.

That's coming up in this segment as we continue with Steven Shepard, senior campaigns and elections editor for Politico and also their chief polling analyst. You can also tweet @BrianLehrer if I forgot to say that. Let me ask you about the Latino voters' breakout in that New York Times/Siena poll. Latinos are a big battleground population group in swing states this year. I mentioned in the intro that The Times article on their poll said only a third of Latino voters say they are likely to vote Republican for Congress this year, but they are split about evenly on which party they say they agree with more on issues. Does that represent any kind of change in the last few years?

Steven Shepard: First, I want to give some props to The Times and Siena College for doing an ambitious oversample of Latino voters so that we could even have this analysis. If you read The Times, Nate Cohn, his new newsletter that he is publishing in the run-up to the midterm elections, he talks about what kind of investments actually required to call people to use interviewers who speak both English and Spanish.

In other polls for Spanish speakers, they are identified by an English interviewer, and then a Spanish interviewer has to call them back later in order to conduct the survey in Spanish. There's a concern about whether you're getting the right mix of Latino voters. This is a big concern for all polling, The Times putting the investment to have bilingual interviewers at the front end.

It is our best look, I think, at the opinions of Latino voters going into this election that we've had so far and that we maybe will have at all until November 8th and we actually start to see the results of the election. It is a slight change. I think it shows that Republicans just more broadly have the advantage on some of those issues like the economy where you see among Latino voters, a group that Democrats are leading by more than 20 points in this poll, that they're essentially even on which party they think would do a better job on the economy speaks to, I think, Republicans' broader advantage more than a specific advantage and specific inroads with Latino voters.

When it comes to other issues, including immigration, it is Democrats with the advantage in this poll. I think that does point to, and this was one of the big takeaways from The Times article, that Republicans will have to see what happens. There are areas of the country like South Florida and South Texas, where this might not be true. Broadly speaking nationally, when you include big Latino populations in states like California and Arizona, it might be that 2020 was the high watermark for Republicans just nationally speaking.

Even if they do flip one or two of those districts in South Texas, the three that they're targeting there, even if they do hold onto the two congressional districts in South Florida that they flipped in the 2020 election, which they're widely expected to do partially, thanks to redistricting down there. I think that we'll have to see if Republicans do make broader inroads or if 2020 was at least their modern-day, high watermark. Without Donald Trump on the ballot, it's difficult to replicate that performance or improve on it.

Brian Lehrer: Well, with the busing or flying by Abbott and DeSantis of people from Latin-American countries coming here to seek political asylum, if we can assume one main reason for doing it right now is to get those headlines that they're getting and help Republicans nationally in the midterms, do you think they're making a political calculation that these political stunts won't alienate Latino voters as much as they will attract certain white voters to come out and vote GOP?

Steven Shepard: I think that's one possible assumption, but I would also point to both-- and both Greg Abbott and Ron DeSantis are on the ballot this fall, but both are widely expected. They're significant favorites against Beto O'Rourke and Charlie Crist in those states respectively. The other calculation that they might be making is for both Abbott and DeSantis. We spend more time, I think, talking about Ron DeSantis. Certainly, Greg Abbott also falls into this category. Their ambitions likely lie beyond their home states.

They're likely thinking about a future campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, whether that's in 2024 or beyond. I would also keep that in the back of your mind, not just will it help or hurt their campaigns for reelection, will it help or hurt Republicans in the general election this year, but also what does it mean for Abbott and DeSantis to get the headlines at this time when, typically speaking, we see the first declarations of candidacies in a presidential election coming in the one, two, three months after the midterm elections.

Which means if the midterms are 50 days from now, we may be two and a half months away from seeing candidates start to declare that they're running for president in 2024. I would just keep that in the back of your mind. Ultimately, even if Republicans do make further inroads among Hispanic voters this year, the electorate, especially in the early states that will help pick the next presidential nominee in Republican primaries and caucuses, is just much whiter and does not have a particularly large share of Latino voters as part of it.

Brian Lehrer: You didn't say "much wider." You said "much whiter," right?

Steven Shepard: That's correct. Yes, I said "much whiter." Sorry.

Brian Lehrer: Just so it's clear to our listeners what that context is. President Biden himself said on 60 Minutes last night that he would wait until after the midterm elections to declare whether he's going to run for reelection, but he used that very near-term marker, November 8th, the midterm election day, as the point after which he might say at any time. You had a piece on Politico the other day called Is Florida Officially a Red State?

No Democrat has won for president, senator, or governor there in a decade, meaning no statewide vote. Conservative Cubans, whose families fled Castro or a vital constituency, as we all know, but Venezuelan immigrants generally share those politics because of the left-wing strongman Chavez, and now Maduro down there, but DeSantis sent largely Venezuelans to Martha's Vineyard last week as an unwanted population. Do you see any signs of a backlash?

Steven Shepard: I don't know that we see signs of a backlash yet, but I am closely monitoring the reaction of some other politicians in Florida, I think, as they try to figure out which way the politics are going to swing on this, whether that's Marco Rubio or some politicians down the ballot, the two South Florida Hispanic members of Congress who flipped Democratic seats in 2020, for example, Carlos Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar, also someone like Mario Díaz-Balart.

I think we do need to pay close attention to see how they're reading the politics there. Certainly, this is not a move without political risk for Governor DeSantis to the extent that he was personally involved in making this decision. I think there are a lot of unanswered questions about that too. I think the politics are kind of up in the air here. It does seem like the kind of thing. We'll wait to see what the polling shows.

I know we're asking about it in our weekly survey, but those results won't be in for a couple of days just as the American public digest this and learns about it. It does seem like it's going to be popular among Republican base voters. Whether that translates to the electorate in Florida, for example, where Republicans do lean on a significant share of Hispanic voters, including some with the ethnic and ancestral makeup that you described, I think we're just going to have to wait and see how that plays out.

Brian Lehrer: One more question on this topic, then we'll move on to some other things. The Eric Adams clip that we played at the top, saying he reached out to Governor Abbott of Texas to launch a national coordinated strategy for housing, the hundreds of thousands who have come in the last year seeking asylum from desperate circumstances, but Abbott never replied to this outreach.

We don't see Abbott sending migrants equally to Democratic and Republican locations, just to New York and Chicago and DC and Martha's Vineyard to say, "In your face, Democrats." In your analysis of the polls, how motivating an issue is this to Republican voters around the country in districts that are not directly affected one way or another, but that might be important swing districts this year as they are spectators on this?

Steven Shepard: It's clear that for Republican voters, immigration is an important issue. I think we saw that play out in Republican primaries across the country very far from the southern border with Mexico. We just had primaries last week in New Hampshire. They were competitive Republican primaries for Senate, for the state's two congressional districts. All those seats are held by Democrats and Republicans are hoping to flip them. Immigration was a huge issue in those primaries. Whether it continues to be a big issue beyond the Republican primary electorate, I think, is an open question.

To the extent that this provocative move either highlights or potentially-- and I think this is yet to be seen. For swing voters, it will highlight the Biden administration and the current Democratic control of Congress and how they're handling immigration or it might detract from that and look like a stunt that's pulled by ambitious Republican politicians for the sake of their own careers and possible advancement in a GOP presidential primary and not in the best interest of either these people or of their constituents. I think that messaging battle is underway. I think it's one reason why you saw the mayor of New York try to send a message that he cared more about these people and that he didn't get a phone call back from the Texas government.

Brian Lehrer: We'll continue with Monday Morning Midterm Election Politics with Steve Shepard, senior campaigns and elections editor and chief polling analyst for Politico, in a minute. Our own Nancy Solomon will join us with her eye on a very competitive race in New Jersey that she's got some interesting reporting on. We'll take your phone calls and tweets. Stay with us.

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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC, 212-433-WNYC if you want to participate, and with Steve Shepard, senior campaigns and elections editor and chief polling analyst for Politico. Also with us now is WNYC and Gothamist's Nancy Solomon on one specific contested House seat that the Republicans are hoping to flip. It's the 7th congressional district seat in New Jersey currently held by Democrat Tom Malinowski. The challenger is Tom Kean, Jr., former state senator and son of former Republican Governor Tom Kean. Hey, Nancy, welcome back to the show.

Nancy Solomon: Good morning, Brian. Hi, Steven.

Brian Lehrer: Your reporting is about a hidden Tom Kean webpage. Do I have that right?

Nancy Solomon: Yes, so it turns out that Tom Kean, Sr., the former governor, is really the standard bearer of moderate republicanism in New Jersey and beloved for it. His son, Tom Kean, Jr., a longtime state senator and he's run for Congress a couple of times, once for Senate, once for the Malinowski seat in 2020, he's more conservative than his father. It's been very interesting to watch because in this particular campaign this year, he's really tried to play both sides of the Republican Party, which we're seeing, of course, this pressure all over the country where Republicans are getting squeezed, whether they identify with Trump and Trump's politics or even a slightly more moderate brand of republicanism. That's what we're seeing in this district here.

Brian Lehrer: What do you mean hidden webpage if it's on his regular website, which you report that it is?

Nancy Solomon: I didn't quite answer your question. The story today was about a page on his website that you can't navigate to it. It is nowhere to be found if you're clicking around the public Kean for Congress website. If you're given the URL or a link in an email as voters have been, it takes you to a page that's called Kean-conservative after the slash, and it's a much more conservative set of platform politics.

Critical race theory is a problem in schools. There are drugs and criminals coming across our borders. Most notably because of the huge issue it is in this election, he takes a much stronger stance against abortion. Kean has known as being a pro-choice Republican, except with caveats or that he wants some restrictions for late-term abortions. Of course, that's a whole big debate in and of itself.

Brian Lehrer: If that's the position that people think Tom Kean has, what does it actually say on this hidden webpage?

Nancy Solomon: I didn't know I was going to need to quote it. Let me go to that. "Tom is a fierce defender of the sanctity of life, fighting every step of the way to protect the unborn from egregious abortion laws proposed in New Jersey and will continue to do so in Congress."

Brian Lehrer: That makes it sound like defense against what Republicans consider the more extreme choice laws, but it also sounds like without quite saying it that if this thing that Mitch McConnell and others have talked about, a national abortion ban were to come up in Congress, the implication is he might vote yes?

Nancy Solomon: Yes, exactly. I think, overall, we're seeing this with a few candidates in other parts of the country, where they're making the pivot from a very Trumpian platform for the primary to a more moderate centrist one for the general. Of course, that's something that has been happening on both sides of the aisle in politics for many years, but it's interesting to note that this is a webpage that was up during the primary.

It never has been attached to the public website. It looks to be a tool that the campaign uses to target conservative voters, and yet there's no public way of finding it. You get a very different picture of Tom Kean, Jr., if you look at the public website and if you look at this one page. To me, that's really what's interesting is the way that he's-- and political analyst that I spoke with in New Jersey said he's trying to have it both ways.

Brian Lehrer: Well, you've done it again, Nancy. You've unearthed a really interesting political fact that others haven't noticed. It strikes me as the new digital version of saying different things to different audiences when you go around campaigning in person, which politicians probably don't do as much as they used to do just because microphones and cell phone cameras and stuff are so ubiquitous.

They have to give some kind of consistent message. Otherwise, they'll be outed as hypocrites. Here, you're describing one Tom Kean as seen on the public website that people would go to where Tom Kean, duh, whatever it is, and something else that people on Republican mailing lists and conservative mailing lists see with the URL that is sent to them. It's really the new digital version of saying different things to different audiences, isn't it?

Nancy Solomon: Yes, I think so. On the more moderate page, it's all about inflation and the economy and containing government spending. It's all like the basic fiscal issues that appeal to moderate Republicans, and especially moderate Republicans in New Jersey. That message is really crafted for them. There's another thing about this, Brian. Tom Kean so far has not held any public events.

The one event he held to meet voters or to speak to voters in person was an event in which you had to make a donation to gain entry. I think it particularly presents a problem if the only communication that voters are having with the candidate is over advertising and emails and the website and Facebook ads. It's a problem that they can control the message so tightly and target voters.

We've seen this with, over the last 10 years, the power of Facebook and the power of data mining that is happening in politics, knowing exactly what car they own, what coffee they drink, and who they vote, what party they vote for, and then targeting them with a message. I just think this is a troubling development in what we already know about politics today.

Brian Lehrer: Nancy, stay there for a second, but I want to bring Steve Shepard from Politico back into this. Steve, I don't know if you're hearing Nancy's reporting on New Jersey seven for the first time here, but does this sound familiar to you as someone who's following the congressional midterm elections all over the country, this idea of a hidden "webpage" that's sent to people on conservative mailing lists, but that's not really there for the general public to see if they just go to the general campaign website?

Steven Shepard: It certainly fits within the broader pattern of Republican presidential candidates seeking one message in the primary, particularly primaries that have been so focused this year around one personality in former President Donald Trump, whose, by the way, Bedminster club and summer home are located within the confines of New Jersey's 7th congressional district not coincidentally-

Brian Lehrer: Good catch.

Steven Shepard: -which is something that actually Congressman Malinowski is fond of pointing out that he is Donald Trump's part-time congressman. Obviously, Trump's legal residence is in South Florida. It does fit within this broader pattern of Republicans, which we've seen after the Supreme Court's abortion decision, but also just more broadly scrubbing their messages, moving from saying one thing to primary electorate and then seeking to say something else in the general election kind of soften those edges, remove some of the Trump language, talk either less about their stances on abortion, or talk about it in a different way coming out of the Dobbs decision.

I think that's a lot of what you're seeing here. I haven't heard it particularly with this kind of example. Certainly, it is no surprise that in this election cycle that Republican candidates are seeking to say one thing to the primary electorate and to conservative voters and say another thing to voters in the middle of the electorate. This is a district that Joe Biden carried by four or five points in the 2020 presidential election. Tom Kean can't just rely on Donald Trump voters in order to oust Malinowski and win that congressional seat.

Brian Lehrer: Of course, it's perennial and classic that politicians of both parties will run to the wings during primary campaigns and then run to the center for the general election. This sounds like something a little different trying to run both ways at the same time with a hidden webpage. Nancy, you report that this district has gone from fairly solidly Democratic. Steve just pointed out.

Biden won it by a bunch of points to about 50/50 after this year's redistricting. Malinowski is changing his messaging too. I see he says he's even launching a new centrist political party. He may be saying that to everybody, but that's still maybe a change that reflects a change in the district if Malinowski says, "Yes, I'm a Democrat, but really, I would belong to a new centrist political party if such existed."

Nancy Solomon: Yes, let me amend what you said in terms of the description of the district. The district is fully purple. It is a swing district and it's been a swing district for a long time. Malinowski, in the wave election of 2018, was able to beat Leonard Lance, a Republican, and flip that seat and then had a very, very tight race with Tom Kean, Jr., in 2020 in which he won that race by less than a percentage point and that amounted to a little more than 5,000 votes.

Redistricting came along and Malinowski was the sacrificial lamb for the Democrats. They shored up congressional districts on all of his borders and then gave him 30,000 extra registered Republicans. Cook Political Report has now called this a lean Republican race. He's facing a very tough numbers game here. I spent a day with him a week or so ago walking and knocking on doors in Rahway, which is an interesting town to visit because it's one of the new towns in his district.

These folks have a different congressman that they've had for many years, Donald Payne. They were in the 10th congressional district, which is very, very blue, very safe. Now, they're in a district that is purple and it's a very close race. I watched Malinowski knock on doors and talked to voters who had no idea they'd been moved in force. This is like redistricting is something only a small number of us pay attention to. They didn't know they were in a new district and they had no idea. The appeal that Malinowski was making to them is, "Listen." Rahway is one of the few Democratic majority towns that he was given in his new district. He's going to those voters and saying, "Now, your vote really, really matters because we are in a 50/50 fight here."

Brian Lehrer: Right, that's a competitive district.

Nancy Solomon: Yes, so it was interesting to watch that. I'll say one thing else. Then I went to an event, a Malinowski event, and there I met a guy who's a progressive activist in New Jersey for Indivisible, which was one of the super active groups in 2018 that worked on flipping Congress. He said that they are not seeing the influx of New Yorkers coming to these purple districts and helping on weekends to canvas and that he's frustrated by that.

I thought that was really interesting that people don't seem to be paying attention and targeting this race from outside the district in the ways that happened in the past. There's always been carloads of folks going to Pennsylvania to help out with these swing districts or with presidential races. That happens in New Jersey swing districts as well.

Brian Lehrer: They're not seeing it. All right, people in Park Slope, there's something you can do on the weekends this fall if you're bored or motivated. Kevin in Morristown has a question for Nancy. Nancy, stay on with us another couple of minutes and let's see what Kevin wants to ask you. Hi, Kevin.

Kevin: Hi, how are you doing? Nancy, I really, really love everything you do for New Jersey. It's great reporting.

Nancy Solomon: Thank you.

Kevin: The question is, and this is really complicated, it's like, is Kean really two-faced or is somebody sending out this email trying to hijack his voters or propaganda is the voters? That's the question that comes to me.

Nancy Solomon: That's a great question. I feel I can answer it because this is a webpage that is part of the Tom Kean for Congress official website. It's just a page that isn't linked to. You have to type in what comes after the slash to find it if you haven't been sent the link. I don't think this can be understood as anything renegade. This is something the campaign is doing.

Brian Lehrer: Kevin, thank you very much. Nancy Solomon, thank you very much. Nancy's Gothamist article plus WNYC radio version is called Tale of 2 Tom Keans? Republican in NJ-7 Congressional Race Shows Right-Wing Side on Hidden Webpage. Nancy, thanks a lot.

Nancy Solomon: Thanks, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: We're still a few more minutes being joined by Steve Shepard, senior campaigns and elections editor and chief polling analyst for Politico. Can I touch a couple of races with you outside other than the New Jersey race that Nancy was talking about? I know you've been covering things. You wrote about the New Hampshire Republican primary that just took place for US Senate last week, last primary in the country. Who won and with what implications for challenging Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan?

Steven Shepard: It was retired Army Brigadier General Don Bolduc who won. Bolduc was definitely the more extreme candidate in the race. A Republican super PAC popped up in the final two weeks of that campaign to promote a different candidate, State Senate President Chuck Morse, a more moderate candidate. They also criticize Bolduc in their television ads, saying that he had some crazy ideas that were far on the right.

We won't find out for another few days who funded that, but every indication is that it probably was related to Mitch McConnell's political network. Clearly, they wanted more, so they didn't want Bolduc. This is a state that Joe Biden carried by seven points, but Maggie Hassan won for her election six years ago in 2016 by only a thousand votes. Super, super close. One of the closest elections that we've seen for Senate in a very long time. This is going to be--

Brian Lehrer: Let me move this along because we're almost out of time. This is one of those states you're telling us, where the more radical Republican won the primary and that may help the Democrat?

Steven Shepard: Yes, and Democratic groups also worked in the primary to depress enthusiasm for Morse. The more moderate candidate they wanted to face Bolduc. Now, they have him. I think his nomination does make Hassan the favored in that race, but it is going to be a battle.

Brian Lehrer: You're reporting on other similar states. Arizona's another one. Dr. Oz versus Josh Fetterman in Pennsylvania or Herschel Walker challenging Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock in Georgia. All along these lines, your forecast now on Politico has the Senate as a total toss-up. Last question, what about the House?

Steven Shepard: The House, we still have Republicans favored to win. They have a number of advantages, including in redistricting where, as Nancy said, the Democratic map that was adopted by the state's redistricting commission sacrificed one of their seats. Malinowski still has a chance to win, but he's the underdog as Nancy described. That happened in a lot of states across the country.

Republicans have an advantage coming out of redistricting. They have a little bit of political wind at their back, though certainly less so than they had a few months ago. These races are also nationalized in a way that some of these Senate races-- Voters in Georgia are going to know a lot about Herschel Walker. Voters in Pennsylvania are going to know a lot about Mehmet Oz.

That's not necessarily going to be the case in some of these congressional districts, or even some of the more extreme Republicans who won primaries might still be able to survive in the general election in swing districts because voters just don't know a lot about them. They'll choose the Republican candidate as a check and balance on Democratic control of Washington.

Brian Lehrer: Steve Shepard is senior campaigns and elections editor and chief polling analyst for Politico. Thanks for coming on again, Steve. We really appreciate it.

Steven Shepard: Thanks for having me.

 

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