Monday Morning Politics: New Speaker, Biden's Border Policy Changes

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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. It's a very interesting day for Joe Biden to be in Mexico. He just announced his strict new limits for people from certain Latin American and Caribbean countries to enter the US seeking political asylum. Republicans think it's not strict enough. Immigration advocates think he's caving to the right.

This comes right after Kevin McCarthy slouched into the exalted title of Speaker of the House in the middle of the night, Friday night into Saturday morning, giving away so much to 20 hard-right members, including that any one of them can force a new vote, gave away so much to the Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert wing, that some wise guys are calling McCarthy a SIMO. Have you heard that yet? SIMO, Speaker-- SINO, I'm sorry. SINO. No, he is not from China. SINO stands for Speaker In Name Only.

One of that faction's main issues is closing the border more than Biden just did. It's also an interesting day to be in Mexico for Biden because the biggest global news story today is also coming from Latin America, 5,000 miles south of the Rio Grande in the capital of Brazil, where supporters of the Trump allied to Jair Bolsonaro stormed the capital yesterday as you've, no doubt, heard by now, hoping to overturn an election they lost based on claims of massive voter fraud unsupported by any known evidence. How eerie, if not that surprising, that January 8th in Brazil, yesterday, would be such a close copy of January 6th in the United States.

They apparently learned their lessons well from this American export. As fellow countries in the Americas, both the US and Mexico and Canada, the three leaders are meeting today. They have to take positions on Brazil. On all those levels, it's a really interesting day for Joe Biden to be in Mexico.

With us now, USA Today's Washington Bureau Chief, Susan Page, who's also the author of two books that are very relevant right now, Madam Speaker: Nancy Pelosi and the Lessons of Power, and a book that's been in the works. We've mentioned a number of times with Susan last year that it was in the works and is scheduled for release this year, and sadly, even more timely than it would've been, and that's a biography of the now late TV journalist, Barbara Walters.

Susan, always good to have you. Welcome back to WNYC.

Susan Page: Hey, Brian, it's always good to be with you.

Brian Lehrer: Here's a short clip of Biden last week while announcing new hard caps of 30,000 people per month from Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela, and Haiti, addressing people from those countries who also want to come.

Joe Biden: If you're trying to leave Cuba, Nicaragua, or Haiti, you have-- or have agreed to begin a journey to America, do not, do not just show up at the border, stay where you are, and apply legally from there.

Brian Lehrer: I think he meant to include people from Venezuela as well. That's on the list, but boy, Susan, I feel like I've heard Biden say don't come before. What's new here?

Susan Page: I think the president is trying to adopt a middle ground that is leaving-- on immigration, that's leaving nobody happy with him. This is a tougher policy than he's been willing to impose before. It's bringing criticism from immigration rights groups and those who defend the process of asylum for people who face legitimate fears of persecution in their home countries.

It doesn't go far enough for Republicans who say the border is not under control and have used that as a real political cadre against the administration. This was the president's-- this president's first trip to the border as president when he went to El Paso, although he didn't actually meet with any migrants. It's a sign that the White House thinks the approach they've taken for the past two years just isn't enough.

Brian Lehrer: 30,000 a month from each of those four countries or the four in total?

Susan Page: The four in total. If you were trying to put that in some context, in November, there were 82,000 migrants stopped at the border from those four countries. The administration is hoping what will happen is what happened when they first unveiled the very similar policy for Venezuela, which has been in effect, and that is that it really slowed down the crush of Venezuelans trying to cross the border and claim asylum.

They're hoping that number will come way down as people find a path to apply for asylum from their home country. Of course, there are some restrictions on who can do that, that you have to have enough money for a plane ticket. You have to have some kind of tie in the United States. You have to be able to sign up using a website. It will exclude some people who, I think, have in the past wanted to seek asylum in this country.

Brian Lehrer: 30,000 a month total from the four countries. That would be 360,000 people in a year or about a thousand people a day. Is that too much for Republicans? To a lot of Republicans or immigration restrictionists, it's still going to sound like a lot of people.

Susan Page: It does sound like a lot of people, but it is an effort to bring what is pealing the White House hopes about this policy is that it brings, hopefully, they hope, a sense of order to a situation that has just looked really chaotic with people. You see the TV footage every day of people crossing the river without authorization, without documentation, and trying to seek asylum and just overwhelming our system.

This is an effort to provide a sense of order and maybe thread the needle because the real problem is there is no possibility of legislative action to try to reform or improve or upgrade our immigration system. That's just not going to happen for the next two years.

It's been very hard to pass any legislation, even when Democrats controlled both chambers of the Congress and the White House, so we've got no expectation of a broad legislative solution to this. We're left with what the president can do with his own powers.

Brian Lehrer: We've mentioned now how Republicans are reacting. How are immigration advocates reacting?

Susan Page: Well, they've been brutal, and they have-- accusing the President, President Biden of continuing the attitudes and some of the policies of President Trump. Of course, President Biden during the campaign and since it's been-- [sound cut]

Brian Lehrer: Whoops, did we lose you, Susan? Do we have Susan?

Susan Page: I muted myself unknowingly.

Brian Lehrer: I think there's somebody-- you're the Washington Bureau Chief for USA Today. There are all kinds of ways to hack in, to stop people from saying things that they don't want the public listening right now to hear, so that's what I think happened. I won't blame you.

Susan Page: I think it's a user error, but thank you very much.

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Brian Lehrer: Anyway, where were you?

Susan Page: I was saying that no chance for a broader action, although you do have a bipartisan group of senators visiting El Paso today led by Senator Cornyn and Senator Sinema, but really no prospects for action. We have this situation in the border that is enormously frustrating, has been really difficult to address.

Brian Lehrer: I read that for the 30,000 a month allowed to come in from those countries, they also have to register their asylum claims with an app, talk about user error, and then approach a US port of entry, which can be the border at places like El Paso, it can also be an airport. I'm thinking, how many of the economically desperate and politically threatened people we're talking about have the phones and everything else to download an app and apply in that way?

Susan Page: You also need some tie to the United States. You need to be specifying someone who's going to promise that you won't be-- to help support you when you get to the United States. It does exclude people, it excludes people on economic grounds, on technological grounds, so it's different.

The tradition of asylum is if you have a credible threat of persecution in your home country that the law says, US law, international law says that we'll consider your case. If we judge it to be legitimate, we'll offer you asylum. Well, this excludes a lot of people who would like to apply for asylum and be admitted to this country.

Brian Lehrer: That those allowed will be able to be allowed to work, which is interesting. Another piece of the new policy involves Mexico. Biden says Mexico has agreed to let many thousands of migrants to be rapidly, his word, rapidly sent back across the border into Mexico if they cross the US-Mexico border illegally. Is that new that Mexico has agreed to that? Does it mean Mexico will provide for them in some new way?

Susan Page: We've been sending people back to Mexico for some time. Mexico's agreed to take 30,000 a month. This whole policy depends on the number of people from those four countries declining significantly. Mexico hasn't agreed to take every single one of them if the numbers are higher than 30,000. If the numbers stay as high as they have been, like 80,000 a month, what do you do with the 50,000 people who can't go to Mexico?

Mexico has a bigger complaint, though, and that is a provision of President Biden's policy that says, you can't apply for us if you come through Mexico. You have to apply for asylum there first before you can apply for asylum in the United States. Mexico says that is unacceptable to them, and that is one of the topics that they're going to be talking about at the Three Amigos Summit today and tomorrow.

Brian Lehrer: Is the 30,000 limit only for those countries? A year ago, I think we were talking more about people from Honduras and Guatemala coming across because of desperate circumstances in those countries. Are they still allowed to come in unlimited numbers?

Susan Page: There's been a great surge from these four countries that are specified, and because we don't have good relations with several of those countries, it's harder to repatriate people to, say, Cuba or Nicaragua. This policy is trying to address the current issue of where they've seen a surge of immigrants. It does not affect people from other countries.

The United States has been trying to deal with the immigration prob issues in other countries, but this is designed for the four countries where they see the biggest problem at the moment.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, good morning. Monday morning, new week. We're talking Monday morning politics with Susan Page, Washington Bureau Chief for USA Today. Your questions and comments are welcome on three things that we're talking about, Biden Mexico and his new border policy. Nicaraguans, are you there? Cubans, Venezuelans, Haitians in our listening area, which could be anywhere in the world. Anyone else with a personal stake in this invited to call in.

Anyone else on that topic, 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, or tweet @BrianLehrer. Also, on Kevin McCarthy, elected speaker of the House in the middle of the night, we'll get to that.

Also, on January 8th in Brazil, their January 6th. Brazilians, are you with us this morning? We can take calls now with Susan Page or later with Ian Bremmer next hour on the show. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692 on any of those three things. Comments, welcome, questions, welcome always for Susan Page this morning.

Staying with immigration. It's interesting that Cuba is on the list with that limited amount of entry, I guess around 7,500 people per month. Haven't Republicans built their electoral strength in Florida on Cubans fleeing Castro? Wouldn't they want as many of those people here as possible and view them as sympathetic victims of the left-wing dictatorship that the Republicans hate the most in the Western hemisphere?

Susan Page: Well, they mind, and that may be an attack that Republicans take, although Republicans are not really criticizing the fact that it limits immigration or asylum seekers from Cuba. Republicans are focused on the fact that they say it does not go far enough to crack down on immigration from everywhere.

The view of the last Republican president was to build a wall across the entire Southern border. That is an attitude that other Republicans would embrace. The Cuba aspect of this, I haven't actually seen much-- I haven't seen any commentary on for Republicans.

Brian Lehrer: There's a larger question about who and what immigration is for and the real risks and benefits of immigration at a mass level. I think history has shown it to be generally a big plus for the US economy when waves of people were coming from Italy, from Ireland, Jews from Eastern Europe, all those people once upon a time, Latin Americans, people from Asia since 1965, that immigration law that opened things up.

Also, what if it's not? How much of a moral obligation do we as a rich country, even if not all the people here are rich, how much of a moral obligation do we have as a rich country overall to take in political and economic refugees and strivers for freedom more than Mexico or any country along the way they may pass through? Immigrants, for you, is it mostly to escape horrible things in your countries of origin, especially if you're coming from the countries we're talking about right now, or with positive reasons too? 212-433-WNYC, but Susan, are they having a real longer-term, bigger picture benefits versus risks conversation in Washington?

Susan Page: I would say the appetite in Washington for long-term discussion on serious topics is pretty limited these days. You look ahead the next day or the next week maybe, it's hard to look at the history of America and not have respect for the value of immigration. Almost all of us came here. Our families came here originally as immigrants, many of them fleeing difficult circumstances.

Look at Nancy Pelosi. Nancy Pelosi was the granddaughter of immigrants from Italy who came here because they could no longer make a living in Italy because of financial hardship there. She has just stepped down as being number two in succession to the presidency and one of the most successful legislative leaders in the history of the country. She's not alone.

You look at the inventors and the business leaders and the educators and the politicians in our country, and there are a lot of them who are immigrants or the children of immigrants, or the grandchildren of immigrants. There's also been this strain of thinking in the United States that has been anti-immigrant that goes back a very long time. We see that coming forward.

Now, the fact is opposition to immigration was the first issue that Donald Trump talked about when he came down the elevator in 2015, and it was an issue he returned to again and again, and one that really resonates with many of the people who mostly have been most supportive of him.

Brian Lehrer: By bringing up that moment when Trump came down the escalator announcing his presidential campaign in 2015, he singled out Mexico. That was all about Mexico. We're not talking about Mexico right now, which is not to say migrants from Mexico are in any way what Trump characterized as being-- I won't even repeat all those slurs, but have the sending countries flipped that much? Was it overwhelmingly Mexico in 2015, and now it's all these other countries?

Susan Page: This is more than I know. Here's one thing I know. The challenge of immigration isn't a constant one from a single country. It's something that evolves and changes as a region or a country has political turmoil or economic crisis that gets people to-- propels them to want to leave. It's not always from the same place.

Former President Trump has certainly been very focused on the southern border from Mexico and lands beyond the lands that people who come up through Mexico to try to cross the border.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take a phone call. It's Anne in Baldwin on Long Island. Anne, you're on WNYC. Thank you for calling in.

Anne: Hello, Brian. Thank you for taking my call. I was wondering what would happen to someone from Haiti who has already applied for a visa and had been waiting for a while, but can they still apply for what's going on now because twice already, they had to flee their homes because whenever the gangs come to town and the situation is only getting worse. Can't wait anymore.

Brian Lehrer: Do you know, Anne, if the person you're thinking of is applying for political asylum per se, that kind of visa or a more regular immigration visa?

Anne: No, regular immigration visa, but as things are getting worse, again, they had to flee their home twice because the gang came in and went inside the whole neighborhood.

Brian Lehrer: It's a great question, Susan, and I don't really know the answer. I don't know if the 7,500 or so now allowed to apply legally per month from Haiti includes people who've already applied, if it includes people who have "regular immigration" visa requests in as opposed to political asylum requests. Do you know?

Susan Page: I'm not a lawyer, reluctant to opine on this, except that in the briefings that were held about the President Biden's proposal on this, it seemed to be a separate program for people seeking political asylum, not for people who are applying for regular visas, and particularly not for people who have that already in process.

Anne, I'm sorry to hear about the situation that the person you're talking about is facing in Haiti. We've just seen that situation deteriorate, which is one reason we see so many Haitians trying to come into this country.

Brian Lehrer: I might recommend that you call your member of Congress, Democrat or Republican. They tend to try to help individuals with immigration issues generally, or so they tell me. That might be one way to help smooth the way or at least get that information about what category the person who you're thinking of would fall into. I hope that's at least a little bit helpful.

Let's take another call. Here's Mario in Queens. Mario, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Mario: Hi, Brian. A first-time caller, and long-time listener. What I want to say is that all this is the consequence of US policy the [unintelligible 00:21:01] especially-- No, if you interview any--

Brian Lehrer: Especially in Haiti. Is that what you were saying? Your background is Haitian, too, right?

Mario: Yes, that's right. The oligarchs in Haiti, they're very influential in Washington, and they are the one who calls a shot. Haiti doesn't make war weapons. You see all the gangs with all these war-- and they're never short of ammunition, and they're still terrorizing the country. All these weapons are coming from Miami, and some of them are coming from Colorado. I'm assuming the administration are aware of it.

Brian Lehrer: US responsibility for the situation in Haiti to some degree, therefore more US responsibility to take people in. Mario, I'm going to leave it there for time, but you made your very clear point. Thank you very much.

Susan, I can't imagine Joe Biden ever uttering those words. I don't think he would consider it in his political interest, even if his political interest is maximizing the number of people we take in from Haiti because it would be inflammatory to many Americans who may not be aware of some of the ways that the US has in fact contributed to the ongoing crisis in Haiti.

They would reject that and say, "No, don't tell us we're causing that. We've intervened to restore President Aristide when he had a coup against him. We've intervened with humanitarian relief after the earthquake a decade or so ago, et cetera, et cetera." I think it's a point that wouldn't sell even if there's an argument there.

Susan Page: I think the point I mistakenly put myself on mute, you were asking about the United States' obligation, and is the United States' obligation greater than other places because we're a rich country? Which would apply to places other than Haiti would apply to everywhere. It seems to me the United States has long accepted a special obligation when it comes to accepting people fleeing political persecution because of our own history as well as because of our wealth.

It's part of our culture to accept immigrants and to feel a responsibility to people fleeing Nazi Germany or fleeing other conflicts. We don't always step up to that immediately, but I think Americans do feel that as something that is part of, generally speaking, the American DNA.

Brian Lehrer: One other question on this, and then we're going to take a break and turn the page and talk about Kevin McCarthy being sworn in as speaker, winning that 15th ballot in the middle of the night, Friday night. I want to get your comparisons when we get to that to the person you just published a book about, Nancy Pelosi.

The subtitle of your book was Nancy Pelosi and the Lessons of Power. Mccarthy seems to be coming into the speakership without any power, which is interesting and different, if not unique, but one more thing on immigration.

To make it local to our New York area audience, the USA Today article, your newspaper's article on the whole thing today, says, "El Paso is currently the biggest corridor for illegal crossings due in part to Nicaraguan's fleeing repression, crime, and poverty in their country." Last month, El Paso mayor Oscar Leeser declared a state of emergency in response to the crisis, but we also have a crisis in New York City, Susan, as you know, where Mayor Adams last week said, "The demand for services for the number of migrants coming at the current pace could bankrupt the city."

He didn't mean bankrupt, literally, but he's making a point about needing more federal aid for what is a federal, not a New York City, policy item, immigration. Why is Biden not meeting, or to what extent is he meeting now Eric Adams' and other mayors' demands for more help for the current numbers?

Susan Page: It is a good question because it's a crisis facing not only New York and El Paso but other cities as well. I don't know if the president's meeting with mayors to talk about this. I know the White House feels this is such a difficult problem to address, and it's one that's politically fraught on humanitarian grounds as well.

This newest policy that President Biden has announced is not going to solve the problem. Their hope is get it under some control so maybe they can continue to address all the repercussions of the situation with our immigration, which would include what's happening in New York.

Brian Lehrer: All right. We'll continue with Susan Page in a minute, where Nancy Pelosi and the lessons of power will meet Kevin McCarthy, and the lessons of not that much power. Stay with us.

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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC as we continue with USA Today's Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page, who's also the author of the book that came out last year, Madam Speaker: Nancy Pelosi and the Lessons of Power. Of course, Kevin McCarthy was elected Speaker of the House finally. As he was breathing sighs of relief, more than shouting slogans of triumph, he made this self-deprecating joke. It's a tongue-in-cheek warning to the Democrats' new leader in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, who was voted in by his caucus in a single unanimous vote. Here's McCarthy.

Kevin McCarthy: Hakeem, I've got to warn you. Two years ago, I got a hundred percent of the vote from my conference.

Brian Lehrer: Kevin McCarthy. I assume it's some ungodly hour on Friday night, and he still had the capacity to laugh. Susan, Nancy Pelosi and the Lessons of Power. She was a very powerful speaker. How's Kevin McCarthy starting out?

Susan Page: The power that Nancy Pelosi might have earned during her long and quite successful political career. His taking over the speakership, he has given away several of his most important levers of power as Speaker of the House. He has set himself up, I think, to have a very difficult time succeeding. The betting in Washington is over whether he will actually last two years in this job.

Brian Lehrer: Whether he will even last two years in this job because one of the things that he negotiated was that any single member of the House can call for a new vote for speaker. It's more like the British Prime Minister thing, right? Any member can vote for a no-confidence-- can start a push for a no-confidence vote at any time, so he's precarious from day one.

Susan Page: That's right. He had several members who never voted for him. He convinced them to vote present so that he could get over the finish line on the 15th try. Yes, the motion to vacate the chair, which is made for mischief, it means that if he does anything that riles these very conservative members from the Freedom Caucus, any one of them can call for a debate over whether you can continue in that job, and his margin-- His fundamental problem is the Republican majority is so narrow that he cannot afford to lose more than four votes on anything.

That is a really difficult situation for him to be in. Let me just note one fun fact, though. He has exactly the same majority that Nancy Pelosi had, and she managed to pass in the past two years really significant pieces of legislation with a similar narrow Democratic majority.

Man, it is hard to see how Kevin McCarthy manages to do the same this way, not only the motion to vacate the chair, I think the most significant concession he made was to put three members of the Freedom Caucus on the Rules Committee, which is a committee that controls what comes to the floor and how, and what gets blocked from the floor.

That has been traditionally the way the speaker controlled what happened in the House, and that will be beyond Kevin McCarthy's power, at this point, to control.

Brian Lehrer: Some tweets that are coming in. A listener writes, "If there are jobs that are not being filled and the baby boomers are retiring, and the birth rate is down, don't we need immigrants to keep the country young and working?" Another one, in response to me raising the question of why Trump talked about Mexico so much in his 2016 campaign, but the immigrants today aren't from Mexico, by and large. A listener writes, "Trump targeted Mexico in 2016 because it was just the most obvious scapegoat. I wouldn't overthink it." Probably fair enough.

A listener writes, "Susan Page, what are the implications and process of the single member ability to move to vacate the chair?" I wonder, Susan, if you can answer that on a policy level because, yes, it's one thing to talk about the personalities and how much power they have, that's almost sports, but how does this set up what might happen with respect to policy under McCarthy speakership?

Susan Page: I think that is really the critical question because it means that on policy questions, he cannot defy this really rather small faction of very conservative members. He does not have enough votes to have them abandon him, as we discovered in the race for the speakership. For instance, one of their fundamental demands is budget cuts, a balanced budget within 10 years.

Significant budget cuts tied to raising the debt ceiling, which is something that is seen as a dangerous thing to do because the debt ceiling is so important to raise when you need to raise it. It would be traditionally-- on raising the debt ceiling, for instance, we'd go up to the cliff, we often go up to the fiscal cliff. Then there's a last-minute deal where both sides give a little, and you raise the debt ceiling.

If Kevin McCarthy does that, it is entirely likely that more than one or more than one members of the Freedom Caucus will then move to vacate the chair to punish him for having made a compromise to keep the government functioning.

Brian Lehrer: Lee on Staten Island has an interesting McCarthy-Pelosi comparison question, I think. Lee, you are on WNYC with Susan Page. Hi.

Lee: Hi. Good morning. Thank you, Brian, for this program. I was thinking about this last week. Could you compare how Nancy Pelosi handled the revolt from the left? I think it was four years ago, and how Kevin McCarthy handled this revolt last week.

Brian Lehrer: They both have people on the wings, politically speaking, of their parties, but we never really had this conversation about Pelosi, because we never needed to, that we're having about McCarthy barely hanging on to power.

Susan Page: Lee, that is my favorite question ever to get on the Brian Lehrer show, because I think it is so illustrative. In 2018 when Democrats won back the House, there was a significant movement to replace Pelosi as Democratic leader. There had been some moderate new members, people just elected from moderate districts who had promised during their campaigns not to vote for her as there were some conservative new members who promised not to vote for Kevin McCarthy.

There was also a broader sense that it was time for a new generation of leadership. We need new leaders. You heard that with McCarthy as well. Nancy Pelosi, her folks told me when I was working on the book that there was a significant chance, there was a credible chance that she was going to be defeated, but what she did was work behind the scenes in the weeks after the election till the vote for speaker.

She met individually with almost everybody to listen to them, first of all, and then to lobby them. She used carrots as Kevin McCarthy did. She used sticks. Nancy Pelosi has not been afraid to punish those who won't do what she think is the right thing to do or the thing that she is urging them to do.

At the end of the day, she won the speakership with, by the way, 216 votes, exactly what Kevin McCarthy got, but she did it entirely behind the scenes with enormous political skill so that we didn't see any of it, and she emerged stronger and without making the kind of concessions that Kevin McCarthy had. It's just an example of her skill at dealing with a difficult situation. You can only contrast that with the way Kevin McCarthy has handled this one.

Brian Lehrer: We're just about out of time. We didn't even get to the Brazil and Bolsonaro story, really. We're going to do it later, listeners, with another guest in more detail. Just let me ask you, as the Washington Bureau Chief for USA Today, one quick question about that, if you happen to know.

Bolsonaro, I see, was in Florida while his supporters stormed the Capital in Brazil yesterday, again, reminiscent of President Trump watching on TV as people were getting killed and wounded and not doing anything. Do you know why Bolsonaro was in Florida? Is he a guest at Mar-a-Lago or something?

Susan Page: Well, he had come to Florida before this after conceding the presidency. He's been in Florida for some time. I don't think that's a surprise. Man, the echos from our January 6th were enough to give you PTSD as you watched the situation in Brazil.

Brian Lehrer: Did Republicans come out against this coup attempt, or are they lining up like they lined up for Trump?

Susan Page: Well, Trump has been-- so far as I know, Trump has been silent, so is Mitch McConnell, so is Kevin McCarthy. Your new congressman from Long Island, Congressman Santos, he came out and criticized it.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, of course, he's Brazilian, but not really Brazilian. He's Jewish, but not really Jewish. He owns 12 properties, but he really doesn't own any. We won't get into George Santos anymore than that, but interesting.

Susan Page, Washington Bureau Chief for USA Today, and author of the book, Madam Speaker: Nancy Pelosi and The Lessons of Power. We didn't get to Barbara Walters, but when your Barbara Walters book comes out, please come back.

Susan Page: Oh, I'd love to, Brian. Thank you.

 

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