Monday Morning Politics: Biden's Fate

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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. Hope you had a great 4th of July weekend if you didn't have to work, and if you did have to work, I hope you got lots of tips or time and a half or other compensation and all the love that you deserve if you're working so that other people can be on vacation. Now, there's a weird convergence this morning between this being a very special day for WNYC and the lead story right now in national politics. Today, if you haven't heard yet, is WNYC's 100th birthday.

We will have special programming to celebrate the occasion later in this show and with an evening special tonight that will recreate the first broadcast from July 8th, 1924. Tonight's thing should be almost too much fun to bear. Tune in if you're around. The birthday made me curious. What was in the news on July 8th, 1924? I pulled up the front page of that day's New York Times, and are you ready for this headline? McAdoo below Smith on 86th ballot. McAdoo below Smith on 86th ballot. What does that mean?

Well, the Democratic Party was having an open convention at Madison Square Garden to nominate their presidential candidate for the 1924 election, and they had gone through 86 ballots so far, and no candidate had yet gotten a majority of the delegates. Wow. The two leaders at that point were those two names, the governor of New York, Al Smith, and William McAdoo, I don't even know if I'm saying the name right, who had been treasury secretary under President Woodrow Wilson as of July 8th, 1924. No nominee yet.

That night, as WNYC was signing on to the airwaves for the first time, the first minute was 8:54 PM, that night there were even fights in the streets of New York among some passionate and rowdy delegates. Finally, the next day, day 16 of the convention. Of course, these days they're just four-day television commercials. That was day 16 of the convention, and on the 103rd ballot, they nominated neither McAdoo nor Al Smith, but rather what they call a compromise candidate, John W. Davis, who, spoiler alert, went on to lose to Calvin Coolidge after the Democrats had torn themselves apart.

That was the other news in New York City as WNYC became a radio station and that's the weird convergence. Today we're celebrating our 100th birthday, and the Democrats are tearing themselves apart again, deciding whether or not to have an open convention. Here's where I think things stand. I think this clip that we're about to play from President Biden's Friday interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC is kind of the centerpiece right now.

Now, there's breaking news this morning, Biden just sent a letter to congressional Democrats saying he's firmly committed to staying in, but Stephanopoulos asked Biden what he would do if leading Democrats came to him and asked him to please step aside to improve their chances of beating Donald Trump. We pick it up there.

George Stephanopoulos: If Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, and Nancy Pelosi come down and say, "We're worried that if you stay in the race, we're going to lose the House and the Senate.", how will you respond?

Joe Biden: I'd go into detail with them. I've speaken to all of them in detail, including Jim Clyburn, every one of them. They all said I should stay in the race. Stay in the race. None of the people said I should leave the race.

George Stephanopoulos: But if they do?

Joe Biden: [chuckles] We're not going to do that.

George Stephanopoulos: You sure?

Joe Biden: Yes, I'm sure. Look, I mean, if the Lord Almighty came down and said, "Joe, get out of the race." I'd get out of the race. The Lord Almighty's not coming down. I mean, these hypotheticals, George, if. [unintelligible 00:04:17].

George Stephanopoulos: It's not that hypothetical anymore. I grant that they have not requested the meeting, but it's been reported.

Joe Biden: I've met with them. I've met with a lot of these people. I've talked with them regularly. I had an hour conversation with Hakeem. I had more time [unintelligible 00:04:34] Jim Clyburn. I spent many hours off and on the last little bit with Chuck Schumer, I had all the governors, all the governors.

George Stephanopoulos: I agree that the Lord Almighty is not going to come down, but if you are told reliably from your allies, from your friends and supporters in the Democratic Party, in the House and the Senate, that they're concerned you're going to lose the House and the Senate if you stay in, what will you do?

Joe Biden: I'm not going to answer that question. It's not going to happen.

Brian Lehrer: Stephanopoulos and Biden on Friday, we don't yet know if there will be such a delegation of party leaders to take that step, but we should know in a matter of days, maybe even later today. Now, the other main piece of where I think things stand is the Democrats pondering, well, if not Biden, then who and who decides? Basically is Vice President Harris, the heir apparent, and they coalesce quickly around her and that's it, or is it deja vu all over again with an open convention, hopefully, less violent than in 1924, but with multiple candidates competing in Chicago next month, that's where the convention is as the best position to beat Trump in November?

Also of national and local interest, which presidential candidate most helps the Democrats running for Congress in the competitive New York suburbs, with control of Congress also at stake and very much at stake locally? Let's dive in. With us now, Christina Greer, associate professor of political science at Fordham University, co-host of the podcast FAQ NYC, and author of the book, Black Ethnics. Some of you heard her be amazing with Kai Wright on Notes from America last night as together, they sifted through 100 years of audio of black icons from the WNYC archives on this 100th anniversary. Christina, thanks for coming on today at this hair-on-fire moment for the democratic party with an epic decision to make.

Christina Greer: There's no other person I'd want to discuss this with but you, Brian. Whoo.

Brian Lehrer: Whoo. Well, thank you for that, and just to start on that history, which I admit was new to me when I thought I was randomly flipping through an old New York Times. Do you know anything about that 1924 open convention and that wild ride to a losing nominee that year?

Christina Greer: No, I do remember when Al Smith ran for the presidency, but I wonder if it was somewhere in the power broker, and I must have missed it in all those hundreds and hundreds of pages, but I love that all roads always lead back to New York, no matter what we're discussing.

Brian Lehrer: [laughs] Right. It was the governor of New York, and that was at Madison Square Garden. Well, Smithsonian magazine just did a history piece about the 1924 convention last month, and here's one paragraph. The divisions within the party were so profound that fights broke out on the convention floor and across the New York metropolitan area. At one point-- Get this, this really shocked me. It says, at one point 20,000 members of the Ku Klux Klan, which backed leading candidate William Gibbs McAdoo, battered to a shapeless pulp, an effigy of New York Governor Al Smith, the other frontrunner, at a demonstration across the Hudson River in New Jersey. Wow. Nice way to pick a presidential candidate, huh?

Christina Greer: Yes. I mean, it made me think of the Patriot Front marching in downtown Nashville just yesterday. We're getting eerily close to some of those days sometimes.

Brian Lehrer: There you go, and at that point in history, the Ku Klux Klan was still more aligned with the Democratic Party, the southern end of it at very least, rather than the Republicans. Is that convention, its own little bubble in history, irrelevant to today from the bits of it we were just describing, or is there an implied message if they abandon Biden, modern Democrats, this could happen to you?

Christina Greer: This is why you're so important, Brian, because I think so many people are thinking about the 1968 democratic convention in Chicago, and it's like, "Oh, well, we have a redo of protests in the streets." but we could see a hundred year redux in the sense that Biden has said staunchly he's not going anywhere, but he's also said more recently just this morning, "If you all are so pressed to get me out of here, then somebody pick up your marbles and run." No one has done that as of yet. We're starting to see more and more democratic calls for him to step aside, but he seems pretty steadfast in the fact that he's not going anywhere.

These are the cards we have and these are the cards that he plans on playing. It will be interesting to see if someone decides that, at the convention, it won't just be a ceremonial coronation for the Biden-Harris ticket, and fortune favors the bold. We saw that in 2008 with Barack Obama. I think it would throw the party in great disarray. I think it's still unclear just how many people want Joe Biden to step aside and how many people actually want the Biden-Harris ticket to stay as is and power through until November 5th. I hate the word interesting, but it will be an interesting next few weeks as we lead into the convention in Chicago. The democratic convention in Chicago.

Brian Lehrer: I played that specific piece of the Stephanopoulos interview because as Politico put it, Biden basically dared those top party leaders, in that clip, from going public against him or against getting in his face. Those conversations among top congressional Democrats about whether to do that are taking place right now. How do you think they're weighing their options?

Christina Greer: Well, I think, one other group that is in these conversations is the donor class. You've got a few groups. You've got your political base, which is largely Black people, not just Black women, Black men, even though there's rumors that there might be a small percentage looking elsewhere. Black women and Black men are, by and large, steadfastly Democratic voters. You've got your members of Congress who are also looking down tickets saying, "We've got a weak top of ticket. That makes my job a lot harder, especially in particular districts where Democrats win just in the margins."

Then you've got the donor class who's looking at, "Am I throwing good money after bad, doubling down on someone who--" It's one thing to have a bad day as a debate. I think the follow-up when it's been scripted interviews here or there, and obviously, the rally in North Carolina was great and robust, but that was also a teleprompter moment. You've got nervous donors. You've got a small but growing number of nervous electeds. Then the proof will be if the base really begins to crack and if you get ambitious politicians who actually want to be POTUS or VP, I think that really does change the conversation. Obviously, time is of the essence.

This is also a fascinating conversation, Brian, when we think about, "Some people have their fantasy ticket, Bernie Sanders." Bernie Sanders is 82. You've got Maxine Waters saying, "Joe Biden's not going anywhere." She's 85. Joe Biden says, "I spoke to James Clyburn. He supports me." He's 83. Nancy Pelosi is an octogenarian as well. The bench is a little longer in the tooth than I think a lot of Democratic supporters would like, but then some people are really clear. It's like, "These are the cards." The conversation I had switching the cards would have been in 2022. We didn't have it. Now we have to double down and power through until November 5th.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, and what you just said goes to something else that-- I'm looking for the quote. It's from Politico. Let me see if I can find the exact thing. Oh, there it is. "Biden and his lieutenants are clearly counting on the result being the same in 2024 as it has been in every one of their modern races. The donor class may have their preference, but it's older Black women in church pews who will decide the nominee. Thank you very much." That's from Politico on Biden's possible thinking. What do you think about that strategy and that framing of the factions?

Christina Greer: Well, it's frustrating that the Democratic Party relies so much on Black women saving democracy [crosstalk]

Brian Lehrer: Over and over again.

Christina Greer: Over and over again, just as Stacey Abrams and her efforts. Then what exactly is the reward? The thing is, I think the reason why they are doubling down and they recognize that Black women, in particular, Black people have been such steadfast supporters is because, yes, I've used the phrase canary in the mine in the past, but there is a real threat that I think a lot of Black people understand about the future of a second term Donald Trump presidency that I don't think white people fully understand. I don't think they understand the capacity of what a second term could look like in their lives, where Black people fundamentally do.

They believed Donald Trump when he said he's going to deport people. The list is long and horrifying. I think a lot of people think that they're immune to some of the promises that Donald Trump and the Republican Party and Project 2025 have made. Is Joe Biden leaning on to the Black folks to save the day again? I think he is. Are Black people, by and large, going to do their best to make that happen? Yes, but we are seeing some people very exhausted of having to do that election after election, and asking other Americans, non-Black Americans, "What are you all thinking? Why aren't you doing the heavy lifting? Please don't just save it for Black people to rescue the country time and time again.

With Joe Biden being pretty steadfast that he's not leaving, it seems as though that work in the next few months is going to be a heavier lift than anticipated.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. Listeners, especially Democratic Party listeners, you matter to the result here. Call us, text us. You help decide should Biden stay in or quit the race? If he quits the race, should it automatically be Vice President Harris to replace him? If not, who or how should they decide? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, call or text. How about this scenario, folks, and we'll get Christina on it. How about this scenario? Some people are suggesting Biden actually resign right now, so Vice President Harris can become President Harris like today, and show the nation her stuff for a few months before the election with her as the nominee and as the President of the United States.

Anyone like that one the best? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. Christina, what do you think about that option? Had you even heard it before?

Christina Greer: I think some people like fantasy football. I think this is a lot of people running through fantasy scenarios. I don't see Joe Biden stepping down. I think he and Joe Biden are steadfast in the fact that he-- We've seen the heavy lifting she's doing. I think that they think he can do it. We know that, obviously, the Republican Party would be at the ready with attack ads for Kamala Harris. That doesn't mean that she's not qualified by any stretch of the imagination. Going back to basically her DA and AG days, and going with the tropes and some of the misinformation about her locking up Black men in particular. I think that they would focus on the past as opposed to her role as Vice President.

I don't see Joe Biden leaving. It is a Biden-Harris ticket. We already saw Nikki Haley hinting at-- [chuckles] which is rich because she's also the child of two immigrants, but saying, "If you all don't like me or don't like Donald Trump, and you want to go with Joe Biden, he's old, and Kamala Harris could be president, dot, dot, dot." meaning a Black woman, an Indian woman, a child of two immigrants, with a Jewish husband, could be the president.

Republicans have already whispered that when they were in their various campaign trails, so we know that we'd see, unfortunately, the racist, sexist, xenophobic, anti-immigrant, anti-Semitic tropes coming out with not just Kamala Harris, but with her husband, Doug Emhoff as well.

Brian Lehrer: How do you think they would play it? Because they can't just come out explicitly. Maybe in some circles, they can, but mostly, they can't just come out explicitly and say, "Hey, swing voters, you don't really want a Black woman, an angry Black woman," or however they would say it in their heads, "to be President of the United States, somebody who also has roots in South Asia, who knows who those people are." Whether a Jewish first gentleman would be a plus or a minus at this particular moment in time, maybe that's a little more up in the air, but they're not going to come out and say, "Kamala Harris is Black and a woman and Indian." no. How do you think they would do it?

Christina Greer: [chuckles] As a woman of color, I'm well-versed in these tropes.

[laughter]

One would be that she's angry. They pull in lots of spliced clips of her responding to something. You can make it black and white with red lettering. We can already write the attack ads. She's this angry Black woman who's unfit for the job. They would definitely focus on the past, right, to try and siphon off that small percentage of Black men. Low-information voters who don't necessarily know her past as a DA or an attorney general in the State of California. They would splice together little clips and-- All good attack ads have a small kernel of truth to them, and you can just extrapolate from there about the number of Black and Latino men that she locked up over time.

Obviously, not her personally, but the office and the role of the offices of an attorney general and a district attorney would be as a prosecutorial role. Putting that information and saying that she has destroyed communities, especially communities of color, and she's not "one of us". Then, obviously, any shortcomings of the Biden-Harris administration trying to essentially stronghold her as possibly the architect, which we know vice presidents don't normally have that power. "She's the one who failed to do X, Y, and Z. She is the one why your taxes are up." Absolutely not, but it doesn't matter, especially with--

We have to be honest, Brian. A lot of people have never had a female boss, they've never had a boss of color, and they definitely haven't had a female boss of color, so they don't want to vote for someone as an executive who's a female of color. If you give them a small opening to not have to do it-- I wrote this op-ed about Kamala Harris when Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were first elected in The Times called It's A Trap. Essentially, I asked people, it's like, "Why is it that you can remember every critique of Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Warren, but not so much with male candidates?"

The expectation of what was in her portfolio, initially, that she was given, I was like, "She was literally given everything but world peace. Voting, immigration, COVID, you name it. I think there are a lot of people who just do not want to vote for women. They do not want to vote for people of color, and if you give them a small reason not to, they'll run with it.

Brian Lehrer: We'll continue in a minute with Christina Greer, Fordham political science professor and host of the podcast, FAQ NYC. Christina, you may not be surprised to learn that all our lines are full and our text messages are blowing up, so we will see what some people have to say and also get into some of the other details of these scenarios. I want to talk more about who would decide if Biden does step aside, and I'm not taking your certainty from a minute ago as definitive that Biden's just not going to drop out.

I think a lot will depend on the impression that he makes on people at a news conference that he's planning for this week and a few other things, but if he does drop out, how will it even be decided and by whom, whether Harris just gets elevated to the top of the ticket or whether there's a competitive process. We'll get into that as well, but listeners, what do you think? 212-433-WNYC will take your calls and continue with Christina Greer right after this.

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Brian Lehrer on WNYC. As we continue to talk about the two-part conundrum for the Democrats right now, should they force Biden to resign from the race or pressure him to resign the race? They can't force him, but should he do it? Do you want your members of Congress to step up? I guess that's one way you could exert leverage. Contact your member of Congress and say what you want them to do one way or the other and they'll see if there's a groundswell. What should Biden do? Then if he does step aside, should it be Kamala Harris or should there be an open process, and who even decides that?

Listener texts. "I thought Ezra Klein's piece in the New York Times yesterday was very good. He's suggesting not only that Biden should not run, but that it would be a terrible mistake to just anoint Harris and not have an albeit fast democratic primary." Of course, there can't be actual state-by-state primaries. It would be a series of debates of some kind, I guess, and then an open convention. Christina, by the way, do you know how many delegates there are to the Democratic convention this year? I looked it up.

Christina Greer: No. How many?

Brian Lehrer: 4,600 and something. 4,600. I mean, those are the real deciders right now. Except if Biden doesn't drop out, they are committed, I guess basically by law because of the primaries, they're committed to voting for Biden, but if he does drop out, that's 4,600 people who become the new electorate.

Christina Greer: Essentially having a mini primary within the convention. I will say this Brian, in 2016, I was at the convention in Philadelphia and I was going up to actually do some work with you all and with New York 1. I had my badge and you can only go in particular places, and I happened to be with a city council member, so I was going up and security stopped us, and I had my badge that said I could go in this area. The person I was with, didn't and so I told the security guard and I said, "Excuse me, ma'am. He's a city council member in New York City." She says, "Baby, aren't they all?" and just wouldn't let this person go.

That says, at a convention, everyone is important in their particular city or state, but that's 4,000 people that have to coalesce around someone and quickly too. That could present a very challenging position for Jamie Harrison, who is a head of the DNC from South Carolina. If you remember, he famously ran and lost and is now head of the DNC. I think that puts him in the catbird seat in a lot of ways as well. I'm looking at who his vice chairs are. One of his vice chairs is none other than Gretchen Whitmer, a name that many people may be familiar with being floated around current governor of Michigan.

Brian Lehrer: Well, we're talking about our oldest president, so I'm going to take our youngest caller, I believe. Ginger in Sleepy Hollow, you're on WNYC. Hi, Ginger.

Ginger: Hi.

Brian Lehrer: Wait, first you have to tell me how old you are.

Ginger: I'm 12 years old.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, you were going there anyway.

Ginger: Sorry. I'm 12 years old.

Brian Lehrer: Do you follow politics?

Ginger: Yes, I do. Very much. My parents are reporters, so I have to.

Brian Lehrer: You don't have to tell us who your parents are, but what do you think?

Ginger: I think that Biden should drop out because people have very low confidence in him. In general, but especially after his disastrous performance at the debate, and now that he's just doubling down and insisting that he will never drop out, more people are just not-- It's just horrifying what-- He needs to drop out and we need someone else because very few people are going to vote for him. [unintelligible 00:25:16] he will not survive to the end of a four-year term.

Brian Lehrer: Do you have a candidate in mind to replace him?

Ginger: Vice President Kamala Harris would be amazing as a president, our first woman of color as a president. Generally, any Democratic candidate, not Biden would be very helpful.

Brian Lehrer: By the way, Ginger, did you happen to watch the Biden George Stephanopoulos interview?

Ginger: Yes.

Brian Lehrer: He looked more normal, right? He looked more normal than in the debate, didn't he?

Ginger: He certainly did, although, possibly that was because he wasn't right next to Trump on something that more people would be watching while Trump was screaming.

Brian Lehrer: Ginger, thank you very much for checking in. I really appreciate it. Nick in Manhasset, you're on WNYC. Hi, Nick.

Nick: Yes, Brian, Biden is clearly too old and he needs to drop out. I don't have any preference. Harris is okay. Any Democrat other than Biden. I just have a quick question for you. In the past, you interviewed Franklin Foer, Evan Osnos, and Gab Debenedetti. They've all written books about Joe Biden. Can you bring them back on your show and just ask them what they knew and when they knew it regarding Biden's mental decline?

Brian Lehrer: Nick, thank you. That's a fair question, Christina. That's one that's going around in the press as well. I don't know if it's about reporters, it's certainly about insiders in the Biden circle protecting him from reporters because they were seeing signs of mental decline reportedly. I don't know if there were signs that reporters themselves would've seen and covered up. There's some dynamic there about some insiders knowing and trying not to let on, right?

Christina Greer: Yes, that's definitely some of the reporting that's coming out now, and I think the second round of questions will be, well, how long has this been going on? We know that Joe Biden has many competent people around him, but that's not the question. The question is about the president who ultimately makes decisions. Some of the reporting has said he's having trouble with recall. As someone who's deep into her 40s now, I'm like, "Wow. I recognize that I'm not as spry as I was five years ago. I know that aging is real and a lot of us are looking at that.

I do think that the questions and concerns are legitimate. You can imagine, Brian, I'm sure your phone was blowing up during the debate with people who wanted to get your thoughts, hot takes analysis, cries of outrage, whatever it may be because there was a real collective--

Brian Lehrer: They tended to be two-word texts. First word, holy, fill in the blank.

Christina Greer: I was about to starting with holy. I actually just put my phone on silent. There was a big tree that was chopped down in front of my house that day, and I was like, "Emotionally, it's too much for me today to go through both of these things simultaneously." I think there's a real concern, especially when you heard the former president spout what I would argue were some lies and really doubling down on his vision of America, which is not inclusive to a lot of communities that I care deeply about. There is this real concern that a lot of folks have.

Whether it's reproductive rights, whether it's immigration, whether it's taxes, whether it's the rise of fascism, whatever your concern is, it's like, "Is Joe Biden the man to fight Donald Trump all the way through November 5th?" If by some chance he is victorious, what do the next four years look like in a Biden administration? Especially if the growing whispers are that the people around him have been shielding him from a lot of these real questions about his fit.

Brian Lehrer: We're getting a lot of Biden needs to go for the sake of the party, for the sake of the country. We're also getting some pro-Biden. Here's a text. "Biden, best president of my lifetime. Took Obama's mistakes like avoiding the environment, upgrading infrastructure, giving Putin a pass, sneering at Israel, reducing cost of insulin, et cetera, et cetera, and turned these mistakes into his to-do list. Biden's strength is that he's trustworthy on this. I therefore trust his judgment." From there to Susan in Lindenhurst. Susan, you're on WNYC, thank you for calling in.

Susan: Hi. I'm very surprised to hear all these, the Senators, the Congress people. I thought we already had a primary, and I thought-- Let me put it this way, when Biden first won his first primary in South Carolina, I hadn't wanted Biden. He just turned me around because he turned to the voters and he said, "You did this, you did this." He knows it's the voters. It's not like I don't know how many people-- I don't know what you think, but all the people, the famous people, the big shots, the people on the media, they all get one vote. They could have voted against him in the primary.

The other thing is we were upset, very upset. [crosstalk] We're still talking about how Donald Trump tried to take the election, the presidential election, away from Joe Biden and they were trying to take the nomination away from him, his own party. I have never heard of anything like this.

Brian Lehrer: Did you--

Susan: Another thing is people, the--

Brian Lehrer: Go ahead, Susan. Go ahead, go ahead, you're on a roll, keep going.

Susan: One thing that people really, really dislike about the Republican party, was all these the trying to so many votes for the Speaker of the House and then constantly bringing us to the birds of default, and not paying down the debt and all this stuff. Now we have a good candidate that a lot more people I think is it, or a few more people than all the people-- The media people, let's put it that way, the media darlings voted for. Those media darlings had a chance to vote for another candidate.

Now we never going to be in another period of, "Oh my God what's going to happen?" People are actually looking forward to having a broker convention when we should just back the candidate we had that, I think at least a few more people voted for them, the ones that are complaining and to try to put him down and go all in for him. I don't understand it.

Brian Lehrer: Susan, let me ask you one follow-up question--

Susan: [crosstalk] only worse.

Brian Lehrer: Susan let me ask you one. I hear you on all those points. One follow-up question. Did you watch the debate and did it give you any new concerns--

Susan: I was listening to the radio.

Brian Lehrer: Oh, okay. From listening to it, any new concerns about his ability to either beat Trump or to govern?

Susan: No, absolutely not, because I've worked all my life and I know how it is. If you need the money and you have to go to work and I work in the store. If it's a really busy day right before Christmas, and you're sick and you just keep pushing, and pushing, and pushing, and if this is a bad call, it's not going to be over. For a little bit of extra rest while you're preparing. The longer you put off dealing with it, the more time it's going to take to recuperate. Then Biden is in the position where if he said, "Well, I was sick I can't go to the debate, the same things would be said."

Brian Lehrer: Right.

Susan: The other thing is, people make fun of him but they use nine million words to make a case against him. He is winning against it. It is the candidate. He's the opposition, not the almighty not the--

Brian Lehrer: That's a classic Biden line I'm running. Don't judge me against the Almighty, judge me against the alternative. [crosstalk] Susan, great full-throated support of Biden call. Thank you very much. How about that, Christina?

Christina Greer: I don't think Susan is alone. I think that there are a lot of folks who are just like, "Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good." Listen, Biden has a lot of hits. He's done quite a bit in a short period of time, and I think folks want to focus on that and they recognize that he's got a strong team around him. He may not be the sharpest tech that he was four years ago, but they're willing to ride it out into the next term. I don't think that that caller was in the minority.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. In fact, Politico has this article called The Poll Joe Biden is Actually Reading. I don't know if part of what you do as a political science professor is carefully scrutinize the polls and compare them to each other, or if you're more shrug at the polls. This headline on Bloomberg News that they're citing is Biden narrows gap with Trump in swing states despite debate loss. That Bloomberg article says Biden registered his best showing yet in a Bloomberg News Morning Consult tracking poll of battleground states, even as voters offered withering appraisals of his debate performance amid panic within his party.

Republican Donald Trump led Democrat Biden by only two percentage points 47% to 45% in the critical states needed to win the November election. Now, I think that was an outlying poll, but if the polls can disagree even though if you take them on aggregate, Biden seems to have lost a few points since the debate. I don't know what it says, but at least says that there are a lot of individuals like Susan in Lindenhurst out there.

Christina Greer: Right, I think some people saw that debate performance and said, "Okay, well, now's the time that we huddle around our candidate and we push forward, and we actually now put on our boots and get to work to make sure he's elected." Some people obviously have gone in the other directions and maybe we need to start thinking about it, a younger ticket or someone else on the ticket.

There were some people who were galvanized by that debate performance and saying, "Okay he needs our help now. We can't actually just think that this is going to be a campaign that we can pay attention the last week and make sure some people voted." It's like, "No, no, no, now we actually have to get to work and work all summer to make sure people have voting plans and they understand the existential threat as Joe Biden talks of a second Trump presidency."

Brian Lehrer: Now, we'll talk more about Trump in future segments. He's getting a pass in a certain respect right now because the story is what's going to happen with Joe Biden and people can't ignore that story. It's critical, and it's moving fast. It's got all of these elements, so we have to be talking about it. I want to read for people, in case you didn't come across this yourself online, what Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania tweeted the other day that got a lot of attention.

He wrote, and Christina maybe you saw this, "Here are the questions that George Stephanopoulos should ask Joe Biden." This was obviously before the interview, but it frames where some Democrats are. John Fetterman's tweet questions that George Stephanopoulos should ask Joe Biden. "One, ever bang a porn star? Two, ever bribed one? Three, been impeached? Four, consumed by revenge? Five, vow to pardon January 6th insurrectionists? Six, pay a $25 million fine for some SH college? Seven, promise to be a dictator? Eight, ever destroy Roe?" Pretty entertaining if nothing else from Senator Fetterman, right?

Christina Greer: Right, and all solid questions. I think when you have major newspapers calling for Joe Biden to step down, I think some of those critiques of those major outlets have been did you have that same-- as the kids say-- that same smoke for the former president when saying you were a convicted felon, you should step aside and you aren't fit to run either. Keep that same energy as they say. In the press, we're seeing this play out. In one outlet, you're seeing a host of different opinions as to whether or not folks should support Joe Biden or step aside.

I do think a lot of the focus is folks wondering, "Well, why are all these questions about Joe Biden, and where were those questions for Donald Trump after those convictions came down and the fines were levied and court case after court case, guilty verdict after guilty verdict, where was that same energy for the former president as well?

Brian Lehrer: Who does get to decide between Kamala Harris or an open process if Biden does step aside?

Christina Greer: This isn't my full wheelhouse, Brian, but the little bit of research that I've been doing obviously as of late, is I think some of the timing matters. If this happens before the convention, this is where we have Jamie Harrison coming into the fore.

Brian Lehrer: That's the head of the Democratic Party?

Christina Greer: Yes, the head of the Democratic National Committee. To throw that to those 4000-plus delegates to put forth voting, and candidates, and have a series of votes that way. I think the rules change and the process changes if this happens after the primary, or after the DNC in Chicago. That's when I think it gets a little more complicated because those delegates would have already been pledged, and I'm not exactly sure how this all plays out.

I think a few of your listeners who called in said this, some people think that if Kamala Harris has been the vice president and has served faithfully alongside the president for three-plus years, why is it not just essentially the heir apparent, Kamala Harris? Others say, well, if we are going to open it up and try and figure out who it's going to be and either throw it to the delegates or throw it to the leadership to decide, then should it be a brand new conversation as to what the ticket could look like?

Could it be a Harris-someone else ticket, or could it be someone else and Harris still as VP, or is it just two brand new people? That's where I think it gets a lot more confusing and convoluted because, don't forget, we are yet again in unchartered territory in even having these conversations.

Brian Lehrer: Gosh, I didn't even think of a scenario where he wouldn't step aside until after the convention, but I guess that could happen. A couple of more good texts coming in. Listener writes, "Hi. I was actually a student of Professor Greer at Fordham, and miss hearing her takes." Well, tune in, listener, you will hear her pretty regularly here. "I wanted to hear more about what you both think of voters who say they're just not going to vote." Listener writes, "I'm 23 and I have lots of friends on both sides of the political spectrum that feel both options are so bad that they're just not going to vote.

I'm not sure removing Biden would change the opinions of these blocks of voters. I think Biden as a trustworthy establishment Democrat will keep more voters." That's the opinion of one of your 23-year-old former students. How would you answer her question if there's any way for you to gauge what those none of the above voters might do in a Biden versus a replacement scenario?

Christina Greer: I've been hearing a lot of that, Brian, not just from my students, but from people who have voted steadfastly in the past. The other scenario is, "I will vote, but I'll just vote for everyone except for the top of the ticket." Let's be clear, Donald Trump supporters aren't going anywhere, so the people who were Republicans [unintelligible 00:41:20] and Republicans independents who don't like Donald Trump, I don't think this is new that they're discovering that they don't like Donald Trump. I think the people who are with Donald Trump are with Donald Trump.

With Joe Biden, I think there are a percentage of Democrats who just don't want to do it, and that could be from policy or from age, whatever it is, because he is the sitting president. That is a great concern because this is where we start to see wins and losses by the margins. This is also where when we talk about third-party candidates and our dominant two-party system. We always have to say dominant two-party system because it's not just a two-party system. We have many candidates who are running.

Cornel West is on the ballot in North Carolina. He could make a difference by the margins, especially for Joe Biden.

Unfortunately, for Joe Biden, I think Cornel West could be a deciding factor if Joe Biden wins or loses in that state. This is where we start to see the small percentages that third-party candidates can siphon off with people either not voting or some might just say, "Oh, well, you know what? I like the environment. Let me just vote for this Green Party candidate at the top of the ticket, and then I'll vote for my senator or my member of the house down valid." That, I think could possibly hurt Joe Biden more than Donald Trump.

Brian Lehrer: Listener texts, "The problem is if anyone other than Kamala Harris is chosen," this is assuming Biden steps aside, "Black people, especially women, will be angry. To select a white male over Harris at this time will be perceived as unfair and racist." That's the text. The implication being that some significant number of Black voters might stay home in that scenario if Biden drops out, and it's anybody other than Harris, especially a White male. What do you think?

Christina Greer: I think some people might realize the threat is too large. They would hold their noses and vote for insert white male. I do think that there could be a percentage of people who are like, 'You know what? I'm really tired of you looking for me to save this democracy and when it comes time for you to do the right thing, America, you throw Black women under the bus and choose a white male.' There could be a percentage of people who say, "Well, you know what? You get what you get."

The only problem with that strategy is that the train running off the tracks also has you on it. You can say, "I'm not going to vote." but whatever happens to the train also happens to you. I do think that there are lots of conversations I've had where-- My grandmother used to always say, "The only time you should be surprised about this country is when you're surprised."

I do think that a lot of Black women have already had that conversation of what does it look like if the Democratic party throws Kamala Harris to the wayside and chooses a white male who has not the experience that she has and obviously has not been in DC these past three-plus years and has not been vice president, et cetera. The list goes on and on. Would it be disappointing? Yes. Surprising? No.

Brian Lehrer: Did you happen to see that The Wall Street Journal had an editorial that argued, it's kind of a conspiracy theory, but it was a Wall Street Journal editorial had that prominence, argued that supporters like the head of the Democratic Black Caucus in Michigan, are endorsing the prospect of a Harris candidacy as a threat. Like, "I'm for Harris if it's not Biden." The journal argues she's more unpopular than a limited Biden.

These polls are saying they'd support Harris, but what they're really saying, subtext, is you better not go there because I'll endorse her and she'll be the nominee and she'll lose. Do you think some Democrats-- I noticed Jim Clyburn also said, "If it's not Biden, I'm for Harris." Do you think any politicians like that are playing that kind of three-dimensional chess at that level to try to keep Biden in?

Christina Greer: I don't know, Brian. Maybe it's just I'm so disillusioned. I'm like, "Are people playing chess because it really looks like childhood checkers over here?" I'm not sure. I think that the subtext of some of these conversations is these politicians do understand the role of a Black woman at the top of the ticket. Let's not forget, yes, Kamala Harris is the first female vice president, first woman of color, we can go down the list, great, but we also have to remember she was only the second Black woman who was ever a US senator. We do not have a history of electing women of color in this country. We have had zero Black female governors.

Brian Lehrer: I'm so glad you reminded people of that stat because I think a lot of people, if they ever knew it, might've forgotten it. Just the second Black female senator in the entire history of the country.

Christina Greer: Right, and we've had many opportunities. Val Demings from Florida, no missed opportunity. We had Sherry Beasley, North Carolina. This is all 2022. Missed opportunity. We've got Lisa Blunt Rochester in Delaware, who's on the ballot now. We'll see. It looks great, but people get a little-- We call it the Bradley Effect, named after Mayor Bradley from Los Angeles who ran for governor and everyone said, "Oh, he's going to win." and then he absolutely did not. That was the concern when Obama ran in '08, "Would we see a Bradley effect?" We've definitely seen it with [crosstalk].

Brian Lehrer: That is a lot of white people would've told pollsters that they were going to vote for him, and then didn't actually vote for him because of race. That's the implication there. By the way, the answer to the trivia question that many people may be asking themselves is Carol Mosley Braun was the other Black female senator from Illinois.

Christina Greer: Yes. From the great state of?

Brian Lehrer: Illinois.

Christina Greer: Illinois. This is why I always remind my students, I'm like, "Illinois is not to be trifled with." We had Carol Mosley Braun, we had Jesse Jackson, we had Barack Obama. Jesse Jackson, obviously famously ran in '84 and '88 and came very close to the nomination in '88 and missed it after Wisconsin. That's a much larger story. Illinois has a long history of national politics. Obviously, we could think about the great Harold Washington if we're going to municipal politics. That being said, though, Brian, Kamala Harris--

Brian Lehrer: That's where the convention is next month.

Christina Greer: Yes. This is why it's so fascinating. You get excited to talk about politics. It is our lives that we're discussing, but when you put it all together, and you have to understand the historical context of all this stuff, I don't think it's a coincidence that it's happening. It's all going to go down in Chicago again. I don't know if this kind of sub-context of "I'm going to not nominate Harris if we try and pivot from Biden." I think we still have to be honest with ourselves as to how much we have and have not progressed as a nation, especially when it comes to the intersection of race and gender.

Brian Lehrer: Christina Greer, associate professor of political science at Fordham, co-host of the podcast, FAQ NYC, and author of the book, Black Ethnics. Well, who knows where we'll be tomorrow at this time? Christina, thanks for coming on and talking it through today.

Christina Greer: Thank you, Brian, and happy birthday/anniversary to WNYC.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you. Thank you.

 

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