NY's Congressional Swing Seat Results

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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC. To go over some local results again, we did this at the top of the show, but I know the audience turns over and a lot of this is being less reported than the national results. Then we'll talk about it with Brigid Bergin and take some of your calls. Harris won in New York and New Jersey, no surprise there, but Trump improved his percentages in both states. According to NBC, Harris only won New Jersey by five points. Trump is winning Passaic County at last report, the county that includes Paterson and around there, that's a 45% Latino county. Trump is winning it.

Also a big shift in Hudson County, which includes Union City, which is 80% Latino. Biden won Union County by 46 points, Harris by only 28 points. In New York State statewide, Harris had only an 11-point win yesterday. Biden won it by twice that much, around 22 points if you believe the exit polls in the boroughs. Harris got around 80% in Manhattan, 70% in Brooklyn and the Bronx, 62% in Queens. Trump has in the past carried Staten Island by a lot. Trump won both Long Island counties. Harris won Westchester. Trump won Rockland.

Proposition 1 in New York state did win the Equal Rights or Equal Protection Amendment. It looks like Democrats have flipped three House seats. The House is too close to call. Remember, Republicans won the Senate yesterday. They flipped that from Democratic control. Chuck Schumer will no longer be majority leader. We'll see who will, not Mitch McConnell. The House, which was in Republican hands with Speaker Mike Johnson, may yet flip to the Democrats. Trump would have a divided Congress, but we don't know that yet. Too many races are too close to call. Trump could have both houses of Congress in his party, but Democrats flipped three seats in New York.

Apparently, two of them are firm. Marc Molinaro, the Republican, lost his seat to Josh Riley in the Hudson Valley. There was one upstate in the Syracuse area that flipped from red to blue. It looks like Democrat Laura Gillen is going to unseat Republican Anthony D'Esposito on Long Island. Officially, that race is too close to call, but I saw this morning, with 95% of the vote in Dillon was winning by about 2 points, so probably plus 3 in New York State for the Democrats. For the House, that could be huge nationally, just as all the Democratic losses for the House in 2022 were huge nationally. Let's bring in our senior political reporter Brigid Bergin to talk about all of this. Hey, Brigid. Good morning after.

Brigid Bergin: Good morning, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: Were you at Gillen headquarters last night? Is that where you were posted?

Brigid Bergin: That's where I was. It was the Gillen campaign and really all of the Nassau County Democrats. That also included the state and Nassau County party chair, Jay Jacobs, who was there. It was a very interesting room. Pretty much a roller coaster of emotions last night.

Brian Lehrer: How's that race looking as far as you could tell this morning?

Brigid Bergin: Nothing has changed from last night. At this point, it still appears that Gillen has a lead. She declared victory and was pretty resounding in her victory statement last night, but the incumbent, Representative Anthony D'Esposito, did not concede. At this point, we know that there are ballots that will still come in. Absentee ballots, mail ballots that are postmarked as of yesterday can come in through Tuesday of next week. The margin, it would be a lot of votes that need to come in in his favor. As you said, it's a small point margin. It's about 6,000 votes at my last check.

I asked Gillen after she gave her victory speech last night, "What does this mean? You're declaring victory, your opponent hasn't conceded yet." She said to me, "It means I'm going to Washington."

Brian Lehrer: It probably means she's going to Washington, but we don't know yet.

Brigid Bergin: Not yet.

Brian Lehrer: We will obviously wait for the final results. Listeners, any questions or comments on any of the local results. 212-433-WNYC with Brigid. 212-433-9692, call or text. Our colleagues at Gothamist this morning have a piece out on how Trump's victory and the mandate to enact his policy proposals may affect New York City directly. The article lists transit, immigration, and education as major areas where things might change in ways that it would affect the city. You're keying in on any of those?

Brigid Bergin: I will credit my colleagues Stephen Nessen, Jon Campbell, and Jessica Gould who reported that piece. They looked at how a Trump presidency would impact transit and education and immigration. We know that he's laid out a policy plan that was a real shift from where we stand right now. I would urge our listeners to go and read that piece because I didn't report it.

Brian Lehrer: I'm going to play a clip of somebody who you did directly report on, and that is the other Democratic congressman from our immediate area who flipped a seat after the 2022 loss to the Republican but before yesterday's election. That, of course, is Tom Suozzi. We remember the fabulist George Santos who excelled more than maybe anybody ever at enhancing his bio. Then he got caught and charged with other crimes, and so George Santos had to leave Congress, and there was a special election, and Democratic candidate Tom Suozzi took back that seat for a part of northeast Queens and the north shore of Nassau County.

You've got a clip of Suozzi, who ran like one of the other callers in the previous segment was discussing Harris running toward the center. Suozzi, I think we can rightly say, ran toward the center. I saw his TV commercials that were running that called him and in this tone of voice, "tough Tom Suozzi." How do you want to set this up?

Brigid Bergin: It was interesting to speak to him because the analysis that he gave last night is very similar to the analysis in the wake of the special election where he ran an incredibly difficult race, had tons of resources. It was a special election back in February when it was really the only thing that people were paying attention to. Yet he still was the underdog going into that race, even though we had the name recognition far surpassing his challenger, a Republican named Mazi Pilip. He ran a much more moderate race. He talked about things like issues with the border in a much more concrete way than some Democrats had been talking about these issues in the past.

I asked him what was the lesson of what we were seeing, not just locally, but across the country. Why was New York, the results here, seeming to differ from other parts of the country? This is part of what he said to me.

Mazi Pilip: The bottom line is the message to everybody who ran in this cycle is you've got to listen to the people. Everybody's got to stop pandering to their base. The Republicans pandering to the right, the Democrats pandering to the left. Stop pandering to your base and listen to what the people want you to do. Work together. Progressives, conservatives, moderates. You don't have to change your values, but stop attacking each other and start figuring out where you can find common ground to solve problems and make the world a better place to live in.

Brian Lehrer: How do you put policy meat on those bones? It's a nice sentiment. What does it mean at a policy level?

Brigid Bergin: At a policy level, certainly in this district, we have seen concern over issues like immigration. Suozzi was very quick back in February and to continue to beat the drum all the way through this campaign to say, "Yes, something needs to happen on immigration. We need to do something at the border." In fact, there was a proposal that was presented, a bipartisan deal that Republicans and Democrats, including some very conservative Republicans, had come together to agree on. That proposal was tanked by former President Trump, President-Elect Trump, because he wanted it to remain an issue that would be salient to voters come November.

Suozzi told his constituents back in February, continued to say through the general election that this was an issue that he was willing to work across the aisle to work with anyone, and acknowledging that it was an issue. That move from, I think, what people would consider a further left position to a more centrist position, tackling this issue head-on was a real shift, and it was something that we saw echoed. It was very similar to what you heard the way Josh Riley talked about it in the 19th congressional district.

It was very similar to how Laura Gillen did it in the 4th congressional district. That playbook of adopting more moderate policies and actually talking about some of the issues that had in previous election cycles may have been weaponized against Democrats was something that Democrats here in New York, I think, adopted into some degree of success.

Brian Lehrer: If you went to sleep at three in the morning before the race for president was called and you just woke up, Trump won. We are talking now about the local races, including how Trump and Harris did in our area. Also races for Congress, the propositions Prop 1 was victorious, the New York State Equal Rights Amendment and other things here locally. Trump really surprised a lot of people with how well he did in New Jersey. He lost by only five points there. Looks like he's winning fairly heavily Latino, Passaic County, and things like that. We're talking about the local results.

Our guest is Brigid Bergin, our senior political reporter. A number of people, after I went over the three congressional seats that Democrats apparently flipped in our area, a few people are writing in to ask about some of the other races. I'll just say if I didn't name those districts as having flipped, then the incumbents won. Somebody's asking how Mondaire Jones did. He lost. Republican Mike Lawler held that seat. Somebody else is asking how Democrat John Avlon did on the east end of Long Island. He lost. The Republican Nick LaLota held that seat.

Another listener on another point writes, "Jay Jacobs--" that's the head of the New York State Democratic Party. "Jay Jacobs has to go. The Democrats need new ideas. Their campaigning is awful. We're losing. Give us money," is how this listener cites their strategy. "We're losing. Give us money." Folks are willing to throw votes elsewhere. Too many Americans treat politics like sports. Any thoughts on Jay Jacobs? I know he took a lot of heat in 2022 when Democrats lost all those House seats.

Brigid Bergin: Absolutely. The response was supposed to be something that I think in other parts of the country, certainly in other states, people would be shocked. Didn't exist up until now, but a coordinated campaign across the state where elected officials, local party committees were working hand in hand with the state party to try and get out the vote from the bottom of the ticket all the way to the top. Last night, that was one of the things that Jay Jacobs was asked about, and he certainly credited some of the success that Democrats saw in New York.

I asked him explicitly how much credit or blame would be going to Governor Hochul, depending on the outcome. He was pretty adamant that for someone who was not on the ballot, that she worked very hard to raise money for some of these congressional candidates, and worked very hard to get out the vote, and so she deserved a lot of credit. He said anyone who disagreed could speak to him. Listeners, you know who to call out. I think that he certainly remains a controversial figure among some people, particularly on the left within the state Democratic Party, and certainly in different pockets of it here in the city specifically.

They managed to pick up some pretty important seats in the House. I think I saw a tweet from Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie that they may have added to their supermajority in the Assembly. There were some wins for Democrats in New York, even though the margins at the very top of the ticket for Harris were not as wide as we've seen for Democrats in previous elections.

Brian Lehrer: The other swing congressional district, which I didn't mention because I was only mentioning those in the area that flipped was Tom Kean Jr. seat that was considered the only swing district in Jersey. Tom Kean Jr. held his seat. That stays with the Republicans. None of the congressional seats in New Jersey changed parties. Of course, Andy Kim won. That was not considered competitive, so we haven't talked about it much, but this is a historic win. This is, of course, the US Senate seat that Bob Menendez, now disgraced, used to hold.

This is the first election, I believe, anywhere in the country of a Korean American into the United States Senate. Andy Kim, who hopefully will be coming on the show in the next few days with a victory lap and to talk about what he will want to do as a freshman senator, wins in New Jersey. Definitely worth mentioning.

Brigid Bergin: Yes, absolutely. Interestingly, because of the circumstances you just laid out there, there is a temporary appointment to that seat, and there's a lot of speculation that the current occupy-- I'm blanking on his name, will step down and that Governor Murphy will have the opportunity to appoint Kim earlier than some of the newly elected Senate elect people. He may have a bit of seniority going into this new Senate, which is definitely something that I think will be good for the state of New Jersey.

He is a Democrat here in New York. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Democrat, also reelected. Probably the toughest blow for Democrats in the Senate is that they lost the majority and that Majority Leader Chuck Schumer from New York will lose that leadership post. That's going to certainly change the dynamics in Washington greatly, especially since we're still watching so many of these House seats. Yes, New York 4 will be watching that, but it seems like the California seats are the ones that may really determine which party is in control. That could take a very long time because the counting in California can go on for weeks.

Brian Lehrer: Alina, in Manhattan, you're on WNYC with Brigid Bergin. Hi, Alina.

Alina: Hi. Thank you so much. I'm just sitting here pulling my hair out because I just want the idea of misinformation to come into these conversations. It's everywhere, and we're doing analysis almost as if that wasn't the case. One side is presenting an honest story. The other side is filled with misinformation. I did canvassing in New Jersey on Monday for Sue Altman. I did canvassing in Pennsylvania. What you hear is so much misinformation.

Pertaining to the previous conversation, all the Latinx men that I have talked to have presented me with facts that they think things that they think are facts, which are these crazy, outlandish stories. They were targeted, I believe, by misinformation very specifically. I just think we need to talk about that when we're talking about these races because it's such a huge factor in how everybody is voting. I wanted to--

Brian Lehrer: We've covered disinformation a lot, and it's hard to quantify how much it turns into votes, obviously. Do you think it dismisses Latino men since that's who you just singled out too much to say, "Oh, they just so many fell for disinformation and that's why Trump won them by 10 points," rather than giving them more agency. Whether or not you agree with their decisions, say, well, their priorities were their priorities.

Alina: I respect that. I'm just going on what I've been hearing in New York City. I'm going based on what I've been hearing when I have conversations in earnest and in good faith, not trying to even persuade anybody, just trying to talk about issues. I hear stories like there were Democrats killed people who were wearing red hats at rallies. You can't ignore this stuff. I'm not saying that I'm all for agency and I'm all for understanding the complexities.

I don't know if you've read Bruno Latour, but the Third Attractor, maybe that's-- people want answers. If Trump is sounding more like he's going to represent workers rights, even though that's probably not true, but he's reaching a handout. Democrats don't feel, or Latinos don't feel like they're receiving that, I understand that. I'm just saying this is something I've observed, like, really strongly. I just think if we're doing analysis, that has to come into play. When I was in New Jersey, I was hearing a lot of the same stuff.

Brian Lehrer: Alina, thank you. Thank you very much. Further to that New Jersey race, Brigid, listener writes, "Shocked and disappointed that Tom Kean Jr. stealth campaign was successful by staying below the radar and riding Trump's coattails in the New Jersey red wave was apparently the right strategy. I will say that other incumbent New York Republican Congress members came on this show when they were in competitive races. Mike Lawler came on and defended. Anthony D'Esposito came on and defended. During this campaign, the Democrats, Sue Altman came on, but Tom Kean Jr. did not accept our invitation, and he hardly did any media. I think the listener is fair in calling it a stealth campaign in that respect.

Brigid Bergin: Yes. Nancy Solomon reported repeatedly how it was impossible and it actually became something that most media outlets were talking about that tracking down Tom Kean Jr. became a near impossibility that whether you were in the halls of Congress or in his district in New Jersey, this was someone who was just not speaking to constituents, not speaking to reporters. I guess do no harm is a strategy. It doesn't do a lot for representation however.

Brian Lehrer: Chris in Manhattan has a fair question on something in the local results that we haven't mentioned yet. Chris, Hi. Tee us up.

Chris: Hi. Yes, I heard you say Proposition 1 was voted. Yes, but, yes, these Adams end run power positions, two through six, what's going on there?

Brian Lehrer: Chris, thank you very much. Those were not statewide. Those were just in New York City. Brigid, I know you covered these. These kind of boil down to a power struggle between Adams and City Council, but some of them won, one of them lost. Break this down for us.

Brigid Bergin: Yes. The one that I think won with the biggest margin was Prop 2, which was related to cleaning of public spaces, gave the Department of Sanitation more clear authority to clean space that had been under the purview of multiple agencies, street medians, parks. It was a proposition that some immigrant rights advocates were very concerned about because it also went into the space of regulating vendors. We will see what the actual impact of this is.

There were a few others related to the capital budget and bills that have to do with agencies like the police department getting prior approval and review time from the mayor's office. Then there was another one that was related to a chief diversity officer. That's the one that actually failed. I think this is actually very much teeing up a longer fight, Brian. Yes, these charter amendments were adopted, four of the five.

I think that we have already gotten signals from this current city council that they are planning to launch their own charter revision commission where they will take a look at the entire city charter. One of the criticisms of this particular set of valid initiatives was they were done in what was generously called a hasty commission, very quick, about two months, and that people weren't sure that they actually looked at the full city charter and that these amendments were really more an effort to subvert the power of the city council and some of the work that they were trying to do to give themselves more approval of certain commissioners that the mayor appoints.

By initiating a charter revision commission and putting forth these ballot amendments, it prevented the council from putting forth that particular proposal. I think these changes will likely be implemented, but how long they are for this world, we will have to see, depending on what a city council charter revision commission does.

Brian Lehrer: WNYC senior politics reporter Brigid Bergin. Brigid, thanks.

Brigid Bergin: Thanks, Brian.

Brian Lehrer: As kind of an addendum to that, here's a little stretch from Gothamist this morning, our transit reporter Stephen Nessen writing that Trump's election casts doubt on the future of major transportation projects in New York. It says during his first term Trump stalled federal funding for the Gateway project to build a new tunnel for Amtrak and NJ Transit beneath the Hudson River. His federal Department of Transportation also slow-walked approval of congestion pricing, a program that Trump has signaled he'll kill once he's sworn into a second term.

Stephen reminds us that the MTA's next $65 billion capital plan is counting on as much as 14 billion in federal funding to cover the costs, which could now be in jeopardy. Then he adds that Tom Wright-- I don't know Tom Wright wants to say this out loud, but he did. Tom Wright, president of the influential Regional Plan Association, said Trump's election may not mean inevitable doom for local transit. He pointed to a strategy used by foreign leaders and some Democrats when it comes to Trump flattery and public praise. That from Gothamist on Trump's election and New York area transit.

 

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