Tri-State Election Roundup

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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. Here we are in the one-day void between early voting and Election Day. In New York and New Jersey, early voting ended yesterday. In Connecticut, there was no early voting, but they have a ballot measure that would establish it for future elections. No in-person voting today anywhere in the tri-state area before Election Day itself tomorrow. Then how long will it take to count and possibly recount the ballots in some of the closer races?

There's been more coverage of the Hochul-Zeldin governor's race than any other specific one in our area. As you know, control of Congress is also very much in play in our area. We're going to talk mostly about that in this first segment today. The Cook Political Report ranks four New York congressional seats just in our listening area, which will say it's from the Hudson Valley down through Long Island that are all currently held by Democrats rated as toss-ups.

There are others further upstate, but four Democratic seats in Congress in the Hudson Valley or Long Island, all rated as toss-ups. Also, the one in Connecticut held by Democrat Jahana Hayes from Waterbury on up to the mass line. In New Jersey, the seats held by Democrats Tom Malinowski, Josh Gottheimer, and Andy Kim are also considered more likely to go to the Democratic incumbents, but with some doubt. Republicans are also making a push against Mikie Sherrill, though she's not listed as at risk by Cook.

Malinowski has the most vulnerable seat for a Democrat in New Jersey by most accounts. What about some of the other statewide races in New York? If Zeldin could possibly win for governor, could enough Republicans vote the whole ticket to threaten Chuck Schumer or Attorney General Letitia James or Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, all Democrats up for re-election? There are also Governor Lamont and Senator Blumenthal, Democrats up for re-election in Connecticut.

With us for this Election Day eve morning, a tri-state all-stars reporters' roundtable. Jimmy Vielkind, Wall Street Journal reporter covering the whole tri-state, but was formerly the New York State politics correspondent and he's got his eye very much on that. Nancy Solomon, WNYC and Gothamist reporter and editor focusing on New Jersey and host of the Ask Governor Murphy monthly call-in show and of the podcast Dead End: A New Jersey Political Murder Mystery. Lisa Hagen, federal policy reporter for both the Connecticut Mirror and Connecticut Public. Nancy and Jimmy, welcome back to the show. Lisa, it's your first time, so welcome to WNYC.

Nancy Solomon: Good morning, everyone.

Lisa Hagen: Thanks so much.

Brian Lehrer: Can we start with the big picture from the House races in each state? Nancy, I'll go to you first. If you think The Cook Political Report is about right, how much are Democratic incumbents threatened in ways that Republican incumbents aren't right now, or to what extent do you think that whole premise is wrong?

Nancy Solomon: I don't think it's wrong, but they've now shifted Andy Kim in NJ 3, which is Burlington County down in the southern third down there. They've shifted him from likely Dem or to leans Dem. That's the big change. We've known all along that Tom Malinowski in the 7th district was facing an uphill battle. This all stems from redistricting, of course, a year ago, the once-in-every-10-year process. Malinowski had had the closest margin of victory in 2020. We have a bunch of Democrats who all won in 2018. We only have two Republican Congress people out of a 12-person delegation.

Brian Lehrer: 2018, Trump's midterm election when there was a big Democratic wave. Republican seats in New Jersey, a few of them got flipped, right?

Nancy Solomon: Yes, exactly. Then what Democrats in the state tried to do with the every-10-year redistricting was shore up some of those very purple districts and gerrymander them and make them more Democratic. The loser in that process was Tom Malinowski. He has a real uphill battle because he's got a lot more Republicans in his district now. That race is neck and neck. He's facing Tom Kean, Jr., namesake of a popular former governor, who came within a tenth of a percentage point of beating him in 2020.

That's the 7th district. Andy Kim was thought to be fairly safe. Now, if we're looking at a red wave, he becomes the next Democratic incumbent who I would consider the most vulnerable, but he still has a lot more Democrats in that district than he had two years ago. I don't think necessarily that he's going to lose, but that's that one. Gottheimer. Every two years, there's a lot of talk about how Gottheimer-- He was in a notoriously purple district. He had taken the scene--

Brian Lehrer: Definitely has a reputation as a moderate Democrat. In fact, let me ask you as you talk about the Gottheimer race. To give a big picture cast to this also, it seems like in our polarized country right now, it's the moderate Democrats who are much more at stake. Maybe it's because they're in swing districts, which is why they run as moderates in the first place. It's the moderates who are the most threatened.

Nancy Solomon: Yes, and I think you could make that argument in both parties. We say it again and again and again, right? We are in a very, very divisive, divided moment. I hear it a lot when I go out and interview voters. Moderates get it from both sides, right? New Jersey has got a lot of independent, unaffiliated voters. They generally are moderate. You have to convince those voters to vote for you and, at the same time, hold down the fort with your base.

Brian Lehrer: To get them enthusiastic enough to turn out.

Nancy Solomon: Yes. Certainly, that's in a midterm, off-year, non-presidential election. That's the key. Who is going to turn out?

Brian Lehrer: Jimmy, same question. For New York and even in the relatively downstate region of the Hudson Valley and all the way downstate on Long Island, what's happening and why is it so different from two years ago and four years ago that all these Democratic-held seats, some of them are open, but they have been held by Democrats? Why are they suddenly in play?

Jimmy Vielkind: Well, Brian, I think it's really twin pillars on which we are resting these competitive races this year. The national mood, which we can talk about and which Nancy just talked about, and redistricting. Some listeners might remember that in New York, this was the first time in decades that Democrats controlled the redistricting process. It never happened before since we've had this modern, one-person, one-vote standard in the 1960s that necessitated the decennial redistricting process as we know it.

Democrats drew lines that were believed to be favorable to their party. It was done by the legislature after an independent commission that had been tasked with the job failed to do its job. The Republicans successfully brought a lawsuit, which resulted in an upstate judge overseeing a process by which these district lines were drawn. Originally, right now, there are eight Republicans, the New York's 27-member delegation to the US House.

With these new districts, as you're saying, we are seeing lots of competitive elections, not just in the Hudson Valley or Long Island, but there are some indications that an upstate seat that encompasses the city of Rochester might be more competitive than is expected. That's the first reason. The second reason is, of course, the national mood. I spoke with a political consultant, Bruce Gyory, who said that Democrats have been focusing on a constellation of issues that includes abortion rights.

It includes preservation of democracy and voting rights as well as the tax on Donald Trump in the National Republican brand. Republicans, of course, have focused on elevated crime in New York City as well as inflation and the rising cost of living. We know where voters in both partisan camps lie. Polls indicate that they are overwhelmingly supporting the nominees of their parties. When it comes to competition for these low-propensity voters or lower-propensity independent voters, it's an open question to me.

Which cluster of issues will be more of a motivating force? We have competing points of information about that. In August, there was a special election in New York's Hudson Valley for the district formerly known as the 19th. I feel like I'm making a reference to Prince there. The current 19th district, which will soon be blown apart. That is the district that Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado left behind when he rose to be lieutenant governor and Marc Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive; Pat Ryan, the Ulster County executive, faced off.

It seemed it was going to be a vintage Molinaro. He had longer, deeper political connections. He had higher name recognition. Ryan ended up winning pretty soundly after making the race referendum on abortion rights, which Ryan supports and which Molinaro said should be left to the states after the Dobbs decision struck down the Roe v. Wade standard. Democrats are leaning on that.

Brian Lehrer: Then those district lines changed and abortion isn't the salient top issue, according to the polls that it was a few months ago.

Jimmy Vielkind: Here we are today. Pat Ryan is running in the new 18th district against Assemblyman Colin Schmitt. That race is believed to be competitive. Marc Molinaro, the loser in that August special election, is running for Congress in the new 19th district. He faces Josh Riley in that seat, which had been rooted in New York's Hudson Valley and Catskills for a long, long time, was redrawn so that it now encompasses the city of Binghamton, which is generally an area of Democratic votes in the city of Ithaca, about which, it's sometimes joked that it's 10 square miles surrounded by a reality that it's very known for its progressive politics. That race has proven to be very competitive. The last public poll I saw had the Democrat, Josh Riley, leading over Marc Molinaro by five points.

Brian Lehrer: Lisa, how about Connecticut, which I believe has no Republicans in any House or Senate seat right now, is that correct?

Lisa Hagen: That's right. It's been an all-blue delegation for quite some time now. The last Republican lost in 2008. This is the party's big chance in trying to break that blue wall basically down. We're seeing that ripple effect in potentially other places in New England and, obviously, also the tri-state area too. Connecticut's 5th district is the one to watch. It's a state or it's a district that's always competitive. It always gets a lot of attention. This year, it seems like Republicans have their best chance.

Its representative, Jahana Hayes, who is looking for her third term, she first came into office in 2018. She's facing Republican George Logan. He's a former state senator. At least from past data that I've looked through, I've never seen so much outside spending in this race. It's about $12 million being spent to try to flip this district that pretty expansive. It's the way that it's drawn. It's called a lobster claw, which is kind of funny. It's a race that it seems like basically, polling shows, in a dead heat. It's definitely something that Republicans are trying to flip and seems like they have a good chance going into it tomorrow.

Brian Lehrer: Let's talk about this district a little more and this race. This is not where most of our listeners live, but some of our listeners live there. A lot of folks from New York and New Jersey will know where it is anyway on a map. This is the northwest corner of Connecticut, so from about Danbury up to the Massachusetts border. It runs along the New York border from east of around Newburgh on up. Hayes is Connecticut's first-ever Black Congress member if I'm not mistaken. Describe the district demographically and why Cook Political Report would rate it a toss-up this year if it wasn't so, so close in the last two.

Lisa Hagen: Yes, Hayes is actually the first Black woman elected to Congress from Connecticut. I just want to point that out.

Brian Lehrer: There was a Black man previously, yes.

Lisa Hagen: Yes, in that district. Then if Logan wins, he'd be the first one since then. He also has family from Guatemala, so first Afro-Latino. Again, it's something that has always been competitive. Chris Murphy, who's now a US senator, it was competitive when he first won in 2006 against Republican Nancy Johnson. When Nancy Johnson held that seat for a long time, she split it between the 5th and the 6th district.

The 6th district does not exist anymore in Connecticut based on redistricting. It's an interesting district. You're coming out from the suburb of Hartford towards the west. Again, you're spanning borders of New York and Massachusetts. You have pockets like her hometown of Waterbury. It's an area that has seen a lot of other places around the country, a decline in manufacturing.

Very interesting, different pockets of the state. I was with her in Meriden, which had a bit more of a diverse population, and then in Southbury, which was a little further south of her hometown of Waterbury. That has predominantly white voters in that area and a pretty big retirement community. There's just very different little pockets and diversity spanning not just racial diversity, but also just geographic diversity compared to the rest of the state and its delegation.

Brian Lehrer: Hayes, just to focus on her a little bit more, was named National Teacher of the Year in 2016 before she ran for office. Has education been a focal point of her policy work in Congress?

Lisa Hagen: Yes, very much so. She's done a lot of work on education, but also in the realm of-- She's also in the agriculture committee, so she's done a lot on nutrition and nutrition schools. I've talked to her about this. She wants to work on the farm bill. She comes back to Congress next year. That's been a big focal point. We saw that play out yesterday when she held a rally with AFT President Randi Weingarten, who is coming in from different areas of the country to campaign with her. We saw Hayes really talk about her background as an educator and try to use her experience as a way to contrast herself with her Republican opponents.

Brian Lehrer: We are going to take a very short break, then we're going to continue with our tri-state political reporter all-stars. We'll start taking your calls as well. I'll put a specific call or question out there in a minute. We're also going to hear a little montage right after this break of how some of the candidates for Congress in each of the three states are running against each other over the last few days. You will hear a consistent theme in those ads and then we'll talk about it. Brian Lehrer on WNYC, stay with us.

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Attack Ad 1: Record inflation, everything more expensive, but Sean Patrick Maloney raised taxes anyway. That's right. Liberal Sean Patrick Maloney raised your taxes when you can least afford it.

Attack Ad 2: What do MAGA extremists look like in the Hudson Valley? Like MAGA Mike Lawler, they'd let politicians ban abortion even in cases of rape. Even in New York, Mike Lawler and MAGA Republicans are too extreme.

Attack Ad 3: Tom Kean, Jr., and the MAGA Republicans have shown they have no real plan to tackle inflation, but the MAGA leader Kean says he'll support, have other plans, plans to gut social security, to ban abortion, and deny New Jerseyans property tax relief.

Attack Ad 4: Growing tomatoes, sometimes you have to toss a rotten one. It's just like politicians. Take Tom Malinowski, votes for billions, higher taxes, whatever Pelosi says. Now, we're all paying more. It's rotten.

Attack Ad 5: Hayes has voted for an extreme agenda that hurts Connecticut families and seniors. Higher prices at the supermarket, more money to heat your home, pay more for a tank of gas.

Attack Ad 6: Logan sides with extreme Republicans, the same Republicans who want to ban abortions nationwide with no exceptions for rape, incest, or life of a woman. They'd even throw doctors in jail. It's all on the line. George Logan is too extreme for Connecticut.

Brian Lehrer: All right, Brian Lehrer on WNYC. If you're paying attention there and keeping score, attack ads, negative, negative, negative in each of the three races that we sampled from there. One from New York, one from New Jersey, one from Connecticut. Both candidates in each pairing overwhelmingly negative campaigning going on right now in the airwaves that you probably couldn't avoid if you watched any TV over the last week or so.

As we continue with our tri-state political reporter all-stars on this day before Election Day, Jimmy Vielkind from The Wall Street Journal on New York, Nancy Solomon from WNYC and Gothamist on New Jersey, and Lisa Hagen from Connecticut Public and the Connecticut Mirror. Nancy, is it your impression that candidates aren't running on what they will do for people as much as why their opponent is a threat to people? Were those ads representative in that way?

Nancy Solomon: No, I wouldn't say that. I think that is what you would take home from those ads clearly, but I think there's other ads that do talk about-- I've been covering the Malinowski-Kean race the most closely. Malinowski has a bunch of ads that talk about what he did while in Congress and what he wants to do. The Kean ads are a little bit less specific and tend to be a little bit more-- They're both attacking, so I want to be fair about that. I think there are issues. One of the things that Malinowski told me was that he had a very tough race in 2020.

He really barely, barely won. He says this year, even with all the extra Republicans in his district, he feels more comfortable going out and talking to people because the Congress actually got a bunch of stuff done. He talks about that in person and on the campaign trail and in the debates a lot. The fact is Tom Kean, Jr., does talk about the problems, but it's very hard to get an answer out of him about exactly what he would do. Like that ad from Malinowski is fair in the sense that Tom Kean has not put forward any kind of plan for how to bring down inflation.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, we can take your questions or comments on any specific race in New York, New Jersey, or Connecticut this year other than the New York governor's race as we did that one in a segment like this on Friday. This is congressional races and any others. Questions or comments welcome here.

I wonder, listeners, to the theme of those ads and the exchange that Nancy and I just had, how much are you voting for someone this year versus how much are you voting to stop someone this year? 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692, or tweet @BrianLehrer. Tweet at us. I think Elon Musk will still let your tweets go through even if you don't pay $7.99 a month and we will see them. [chuckles] We will, of course, see your phones ringing on our phone at 212-433-WNYC.

Jimmy, a campaign theme this year for Democrats that Nancy just touched on has been Republicans are running on crime and inflation, but, hey, look, they don't actually have policies to fight them. Just blame for the Democrats because the Democrats happen to be in power when the war in Ukraine and the pandemic sent things haywire. That's the Democrats' line. What are the Republican plans to fight crime and inflation that these races might have in common?

Jimmy Vielkind: Well, in terms of fighting inflation, there's already been talk among Republicans nationally that they will look at pairing back federal spending that might involve some changes to eligibility and benefits for entitlement programs like Social Security. This is, of course, always very controversial and something that was talked about. I remember in the last Republican wave, the Tea Party wave of 2010, it didn't get particularly far. Of course, eventually, a few years later, it culminated in a government shutdown.

I think there will be some talk about spending restraint if Republicans do take power. I'm also hearing a lot of talk about oversight and use of oversight powers in New York. There are still some bad feelings about Andrew Cuomo's management of the state government during the pandemic. One of the more prominent members of Congress from the Empire State, Elise Stefanik of the North Country, who's one of the leaders of the Republican conference in the US House of Representatives, is promising to send subpoenas and to hold hearings about that if the GOP is returned to power.

That line of attack has become more prominent from Democrats as has certain points on votes or bills that have come up. Of course, Senator Lindsey Graham has put forward a bill that would introduce a national standard for abortion. That has become a litmus test in many of these House races. Democratic candidates across the board in New York that I've heard from have said that they would oppose such a bill. Of course, New York State law guarantees strong protections for abortion rights through past the second trimester.

Brian Lehrer: Jimmy, let me stay with you for a minute. Actually, let me go to you, Lisa, in Connecticut in any of the races, but certainly in that competitive 5th district race where the incumbent is Democrat Jahana Hayes that we were talking about before. How much is her Republican challenger, Mr. Logan, running on doing something specific about inflation or crime or whatever they're running on that they say the Democrats should be blamed for?

Lisa Hagen: I think the same thing is happening in Connecticut as we've heard in New York and New Jersey. Not always the most specifics talking about curbing federal spending, exactly what Jimmy was saying about how we might see spending cuts being pushed over a debate over raising the debt limit and that could potentially trickle in. We hear Democrats talking about potential cuts to Social Security or Medicare. Just hearing a lot about cutting federal spending.

One thing I will notice regardless of the specifics or the vagueness of some policies we might be hearing, regardless if Republicans get one or both majorities in Congress, President Biden is still in office for the next two years and can veto any of this. I don't know if that's contributing to potentially why we don't hear the most specifics from Republicans on this. At least when I've talked to Logan or we've heard in ads, he's talking about cutting federal spending and not voting for a lot of these bills that Democrats have passed, whether it be the Inflation Reduction Act or the American Rescue Plan.

Brian Lehrer: Jimmy, perhaps the most notable congressional race in all of New York State is the one involving Democratic incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney in the Hudson Valley, who's not only running to save his own seat, but he's the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which for those listeners not steeped in internal political positioning, that means he's supposed to be leading all these swing district Democrats nationally to victory.

That position would typically, I think, go to somebody whose own seat was safe. One of the core issues leaving Maloney vulnerable to Republican Mike Lawler and we heard them attacking each other viciously in that comparison, little pair of ad clips that we played, or you're just going to go back to your original answer in this segment and say a lot of it has to do with redistricting?

Jimmy Vielkind: Yes, I am going to go back to the original answer. There are no major local issues that rose to the top in that race. Republicans are certainly harnessing and trying to hit national themes in this election and Democrats have answered in kind. That race is, of course, notable because Maloney is the campaign chief. As the head of the DCCC, he's primarily responsible for raising funds and figuring out where coordinated resources will go and do the best, most amount of good on behalf of his party, the Democrats.

What we saw was that DCCC had to invest in his own race. Another organization, VoteVets, which is designed to boost veterans, also spent money on behalf of Maloney, who is not a military veteran. That was one that was unexpectedly close, but it was a district where Donald Trump had performed well. It was something that was on the radar of a lot of people. Maloney was considered to be relative secure and had proven adept as a party fundraiser.

Michael Lawler, we should note, has a long history in politics. He was an official at the state Republican Party. He's been an assemblyman for several terms. He has worked hard to focus on inflation, to keep the focus there, to talk about Democratic policies and the national mood. One thing, Brian, I think is important to note is that people are generally unhappy. One of the most interesting stats that come out of these polls that I always look for is the question, "Do you believe the state or the country is on the right track or going in the wrong direction?" Right now, a majority of voters say that it's going in the wrong direction.

When that's the case and that's usually a product of some kind of formalist dissatisfaction about both the state of the economy and the state of politics. When that is the case, when the electorate is just restive and displeased, we often see a throw-the-bums-out mentality. It doesn't necessarily matter which party those bums are. I do think that that is something that Republican candidates have been sounding. They've been pushing up problems. Democrats have called it fearmongering, but that is also at play in this race and it's something that these candidates are talking about a lot.

Brian Lehrer: You said there weren't so many local issues, I guess, as opposed to national issues. It is, of course, a race for Congress, but there was a line on Saturday Night Live the other week. I'm probably going to mangle it, but it was something like, "Voters in Texas are very concerned about crime. They're concerned about crime in Detroit. They're concerned about crime in Chicago," right?

You get the political and the racial implications of all of that. I wonder if anything similar is going on in a district like Sean Patrick Maloney's, where a Republican is running on fear of crime, but it's not a high-crime district. It's like fear of crime in New York City. Somehow, it pertains to how people vote in the Hudson Valley, even up there, which is not the lowest Hudson Valley district. What do you think?

Jimmy Vielkind: I definitely think that that's part of it. Rockland County in Sean Patrick Maloney's district is a place that's home to many retired law enforcement officers. It's one of the places where New York City police officers have long made homes and commuted into the city to duty. There is a public safety tie to New York City. The commuters in that district, who are now commuting less because of the pandemic, they do sense it.

When you talk to voters, either on the near districts on Long Island or in the suburbs, they are some of the most likely to have changes in their perception of the city because they aren't there all the time. They are reading about horrible incidents as they may happen in the public realm, on mass transit, or in heavily-touristed areas. I think that in New York and in New Jersey and in Connecticut suburbs perhaps, there is slightly more of a tie to the elevated crime rates in New York City than in, say, Texas, where I will take Saturday Night Live's word for it, that they're worried about the crime rate in Detroit.

Brian Lehrer: [chuckles] Let's take some phone calls for our tri-state reporting all-stars. We're going to go one from Connecticut, one from New Jersey, one from New York in that order. Gretchen in Cornwall, Connecticut, you're on WNYC. Hi, Gretchen. Oh, okay. Sorry about that. We have to click you on a different way. Do we have her? Okay, I have to do this. Sorry for the technical snafu, folks, and you have to do that. Hi, Gretchen. Now, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Gretchen: Oh, hello, good morning. Longtime listener, first-time caller. I'm in the Connecticut 5th district. I've been receiving flyers from the George Logan campaign that have, basically, a picture of a handgun. It looks like a Glock and it said, "I don't think we need any additional restrictions on gun laws here in Connecticut." Our district is diverse in some ways. We have a lot of second homes.

We have a lot of people from New York. He seems to be making gun rights issues his major issue, at least from the flyers that he's sending out. It's shocking and horrible to me as a longtime resident. I was born here. My father was born here. We don't have a lot of violence. There's a lot of gun owners and he's using this fear and it's really terrible. It's very upsetting actually.

Brian Lehrer: Gretchen, thank you. I'm going to move on and get some other folks in, but thank you. Thank you for being a first-time caller. Please call us again. Lisa Hagen from the Connecticut Mirror and Connecticut Public, is Newtown in that district?

Lisa Hagen: Yes, it is. It is in that district. It's in Fairfield County.

Brian Lehrer: Obviously, one of the worst things ever in our country, the massacre of the young students there, the first-graders, a decade ago now. That's one of the ways that Chris Murphy ran to national prominence and got elected senator from Connecticut, tell me if you disagree, was his strong advocacy for gun control after Newtown. Even in that district, that includes Newtown, Connecticut, George Logan is running on this, "We don't need any more gun laws." Why does that play politically or does it?

Lisa Hagen: Right, it's obviously a very prominent issue. We're coming up on 10 years since Sandy Hook. Murphy, in a pretty big deal this summer, helped pass the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which put in place gun safety reforms for the first time in many decades. It's interesting to hear. There's a mailer on that. I've spoken to George Logan about that previously and had asked him, if he was in Congress, would he have supported that bill?

Gave a murky answer on that, said he would want to vaguely work on some measures. He basically just didn't give a straight answer if he would support it. Interesting that he's talking about not having further gun restrictions. It's an issue that I haven't heard come up as much as other issues in terms of inflation or crime. I think it's for that reason. I think it's because gun reforms are a huge deal in the state of Connecticut and, specifically, the 5th district given Sandy Hook,

Brian Lehrer: Let's go to Will in Woodbridge in New Jersey. Will, you're on WNYC. Hi there.

Will: Good morning. I'm really just in shock that we are not talking more about reproductive freedoms and the fact that we have just had a 50-year freedom ripped from us, and that so many people can just-- Look, economies come and economies go. The political party in place at the time really is not responsible or does not create a good or bad economy. All parties would want to create a great economy. I just can't understand why more people are not really honed in on this issue. Because once they start taking our freedoms and as Judge Clarence Thomas said, now, we're going to look at the privacy issue, which we just eviscerated in Dobbs. We're going to apply that to marriage equality and-

Brian Lehrer: -contraception.

Will: -contraception. Michael Moore has been talking about there really will be a blue wave. I hope that's correct, but people are so shortsighted. Wake up. They are taking away our rights. It is the Republican Party that is doing that.

Brian Lehrer: Little electioneering there from Will in Woodbridge, where the Turnpike meets the Parkway. Nancy, as our New Jersey reporter, why do you think more people don't feel like Will in the sense of putting abortion rights as much at the top of their agenda today as they seem to a few months ago according to the polls?

Nancy Solomon: [sighs] If I knew the answer to that, [laughs] I'd be making a lot more money, Brian. Come on, we're dealing with very short attention spans and a news cycle that seems to just ramp up and go through issues so fast. I think, partly, people were freaked out about the Supreme Court decision in June and over the summer. I don't disagree with Will that it isn't of crucial importance.

When you go out and you just do person-on-the-street interviews, Democratic activists who I run into talk about it, but regular folks don't bring it up. The polls are showing that it has dropped in the list of things that matter to people. The answer to why that is, I can't tell you, but it has. I don't think you can underestimate the power of disinformation right now. I think I'm looking forward to your conversation coming up later in the show about this because I really do think it's the sleeper cell of American politics right now.

Brian Lehrer: You're right. That's going to be our very next segment in just a couple of minutes because that's all we have left with you three. Listeners, many of you know Ilya Marritz and Andrea Bernstein. They're going to come on and talk about misinformation and disinformation in the campaign and game. That's coming up in just a few. All right, we took our Connecticut call. We took our New Jersey call. Sarah in Westchester is calling to answer the question that I posed before. Are you voting more for someone or more to stop someone? Sarah, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Sarah: Good morning, Brian. I was really struggling when I voted. I consider myself a Democrat and I live in a very liberal part of Westchester. When I sat there with the ballot in front of me, I was working in the Flatiron District and crime had become exponentially worse. I don't take the subway anymore. Always took the subway many, many years. I looked at the ballot and I voted Democrat because Zeldin was an election denier and he aligned himself with Trump, but it wasn't an easy choice.

Even with Chuck Schumer, thinking about how they're funding extreme right-wing Republicans so that moderate Republicans don't get the nomination, I guess. Also, listening to an NPR special on PPP and the misspending there of both administrations, but it just makes me really concerned with the Democrat's agenda. Being someone that's worked in New York City a long time, I actually had an opportunity, an excellent, exceptional job opportunity that was taken away due to market conditions.

I'm just concerned with where the economy is going. That question, are you better off than you were a couple of years ago? No, and I am concerned with what lies ahead. I like Biden, but I understand why Zeldin is resonating. I'm really just aligning with the Democrats for climate and some social issues, but I think since it was such a tough call for me, I imagine other people are struggling when they're making that choice as well. I really do think it's a vote against the Republican Party right now and Trump in 2024 in my opinion.

Brian Lehrer: Sarah, thank you very much for sharing your inner ambivalence. Ambivalence is always welcome here in an era when politics is so much a cult of certainty on one side or the other for so many people. That's just about going to bring us to the end of this segment. Tomorrow, listeners, all morning from 10:00 AM to noon, we'll do our traditional Brian Lehrer Show Election Day informal, unofficial, thoroughly-unscientific exit poll.

We'll be putting that question back out there no matter what race you want to talk about. Are you voting more for someone or more for something or more against someone, more against something, among other questions we'll be talking about all morning tomorrow during Election Day morning? Jimmy Vielkind, let me wrap this up with you and pick up on something that Sarah in Westchester mentioned there.

Taking the Zeldin candidacy seriously and then thinking even when she pulled the lever for Chuck Schumer, those similar thoughts went through her mind. If Zeldin is running a statistically competitive race against Kathy Hochul, let's say he were to win, could enough Republicans vote the whole ticket to threaten Chuck Schumer, senator, obviously, and senate majority leader, Letitia James, the attorney general, or Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, all Democrats up for re-election also? We never hear about those races being competitive.

Jimmy Vielkind: That's a really interesting question and one that plays out most often in election cycles. Sometimes the down-ballot races drive the turnout up. Sometimes it's a competitive race for Congress or the State House that gets people to the polls. They're mobilized by a candidacy and then they vote up. This clearly in New York seems to be election where the gubernatorial race is getting a lot of the attention and it's driving the conversation down the ballot.

Chuck Schumer has been shown to gain a lot of support from Republicans. He wins his elections by very, very, very large margins over time. It seems that he will generally outperform whatever the prevailing mood is. The same has been true of Comptroller Tom DiNapoli. He is someone who I think, in 2014, won by the biggest margin. He ran ahead of the last Democratic guy running for governor, especially given the fact that their challengers are so poorly known.

I would buy a beer for most listeners who could name the Republican candidates for comptroller in the US Senate running against Joe or running against Chuck Schumer and Tom DiNapoli. There have been some polls that have shown that the Republican candidate for attorney general, Michael Henry, is running slightly ahead or even with Lee Zeldin. I have seen Henry as well as some of the other candidates, Joe Pinion running against Chuck Schumer at rallies.

It's difficult to know whether voters who may be motivated to go to the polls because of the gubernatorial election, whether they'll be straight partisans or whether they'll just leave the ballot blank or think, "I've heard of this person, Letitia James. I've heard about her work against Donald Trump," or "I've heard about her work on opioids." "I've heard about Tom DiNapoli because he came to my brother's cousin's chicken barbecue back three months ago."

It's certainly an interesting effect that I'll be watching, but there's been no one I've been speaking with in my reporting who seems to think that Chuck Schumer or Tom DiNapoli are in danger. Letitia James is likely to be in that category as well even if we see a closer-than-expected gubernatorial election.

Brian Lehrer: For this day before Election Day, our tri-state political reporter all-stars, Jimmy Vielkind, who is just speaking from The Wall Street Journal on New York, Nancy Solomon from WNYC and Gothamist on New Jersey, Lisa Hagen from Connecticut Public and the Connecticut Mirror, thank you all very much for spending part of election eve morning with us.

Nancy Solomon: Thanks, Brian.

Jimmy Vielkind: Thanks, Brian.

Lisa Hagen: Thanks so much.

 

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