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Election Results by Iowa Communities Offer Nuanced Look at Caucus Votes

Pundits and politicians say Iowa doesn't represent America — and they're right. But some parts of Iowa are a lot like other sections of the United States, and looking at the state this way can provide insight into candidates' strengths and what may lie ahead.

The American Communities Project (ACP) identifies seven distinct types of counties represented in the Hawkeye State — from the more densely populated areas around Des Moines (the Exurbs of Polk and Dallas counties), to the young, educated homes near the University of Iowa and Iowa State (the College Towns of Johnson and Story counties) to the Rural Middle America counties that make up the overwhelming majority of the state.

Those places are made up of different kinds of people with different backgrounds. Caucus results sorted by these county types offer a nuanced view of what happened in Iowa Monday. Here's a summary:

The Republicans

Yes, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz wound up winning the state he needed to win. He did it by winning the Rural Middle America community vote and by capturing the vote in the state's Middle Suburb counties.

But in many ways, the real story of the Republicans in Iowa was the reemergence of the establishment with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's strong finish. He won the places any establishment candidate must win -- the Exurbs and the College Towns. That may be a sign that the fragmented establishment vote is coalescing around him.

Iowa also has smaller manufacturing hubs in the east part of Iowa that fall into the ACP’s Middle Suburb category. Those places, full of slightly lower incomes and education levels represent two hallmarks of Donald Trump's supporters. Those places should have been good for the New York businessman. But Cruz won those counties, too, and Trump came in third.

The Democrats

If there's a lesson from Iowa for Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, it may be that the enthusiasm of young people is powerful, but it needs help. Sanders convincingly beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Iowa's two College Town counties. He led in each by more than 15 points with 93 percent of the results tabulated. He even got a pleasant surprise when he won the vote out of the state's Middle Suburb counties.

The Exurbs are a bit more complicated. They are younger and have higher college education rates, but they also are full of people who work in and around the state government and tend to be a bit more establishmentarian in their voting habits. In these counties, Clinton won strongly.

But the Democrats saw their establishment flex its muscles as well. Clinton won the Exurbs by about 10 points. She also carried the older, less-diverse Rural Middle America counties (by about 2 points) and the state's Working Class Country communities (by about 4 points). That was enough to put her ahead, with 93 percent of precincts reporting.

The Aging Farmlands counties, older and more conservative on the whole, were expected to favor Clinton, and did by large margins.

Dante Chinni is director of the American Communities Project, based at Michigan State University, a political/data reporter for The Wall Street Journal and a contributor to NBC News. He has worked with WNYC on elections analysis since 2010.