Nate Silver

Nate Silver on what 538 is doing differently — and what he's doing the same — this election.

Iowa, the final countdown: Will Bernie's lead hold? Will the impeachment trial help or hurt Biden? 

Nate Silver analyzes how, despite close numbers in the polls, the media missed Donald Trump's chances of securing the presidency.

Nate Silver, editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, was shocked but not surprised by the election results. He explains why you shouldn't have been surprised either. 

One day ahead of the election, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver says that the polls indicate an uncertainty that many voters don't want to acknowledge.

Hillary Clinton dropped a bit in national polls after her post-convention bump, but has the race really gotten tighter? FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver breaks down the numbers.

November is coming, and with it, polling data. We revisit Nate Silver’s discussion about the importance of reading polls with a critical eye.

Statistician Nate Silver of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight talks about his first forecast for the 2016 presidential election.

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver crunched the numbers and found Trump's success was extremely unlikely. He wasn't wrong, and yet here we are. So why is this election so unpredictable?

Nate Silver, statistician and the founder and editor in chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight, discusses presidential polling and predictions as well as sports picks for 2016.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight explains why Donald Trump's position in the polls isn't everything he makes it out to be, and how polls can also obscure the truth.

Do candidates get more coverage because they're polling well, or do they poll well because they get more coverage? We're teaming up with FiveThirtyEight to search for an answer.

Statistician and FiveThirtyEight blogger for The New York Times Nate Silver talks about forecasting elections, and the weather, plus his new book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't.

Less than a week before the election, many observers across the political spectrum say that they believe a victory for President Obama is highly likely. Others say that it's reckless to predict the future with any kind of certainty. Nate Silver of the New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog explains to Brooke the difference between forecasting and fortune-telling, and defends his belief that an Obama win seems probable. 

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Nate Silver looks at how predictions are made, and why experts and laypeople both mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. He explains that overconfidence is often the reason for failure, and if our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can too. In The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA.

Nate Silver is something of an authority on political forecasting. In 2008, his blog FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential race in 49 out of 50 states. (In that same election, he was also right about all 35 senate races.) Bob sits down with Silver to talk about the 2012 election as well as his new book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't. 

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Political junkies, economists, baseball scouts, meteorologists, and basically everyone else in the world is constantly trying to predict the future. And yet with the overwhelming amou...

Nate Silver, blogger for The New York Times' Five Thirty Eight blog, discusses the outcome of yesterday's special election in New York's 26th Congressional district.

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Our election series The Big Picture takes a look at the incumbents running for re-election and why many of them may be at risk of losing their seats. Nate Silver, of the New York Times' blog FiveThirtyEight, joins us to discuss some of the most heated races in the nation.

Melinda Henneberger, founder and editor-in-chief of Politics Daily, and Nate Silver, blogger for the New York Times' Five Thirty Eight blog, discuss the most interesting midterm races around the country.