Published by
It's A Free Blog

Kicking the Tires in New Hampshire

The Presidential political wheels have been turning much more slowly here in New Hampshire than past cycles. This is good news for candidates who have been slow to engage and better news for candidates who are not well funded. While there may be many reasons for the sluggish start, one very possibly is that candidates are trying to assess what voters are looking for.

The 2010 November election showed New Hampshire turning from Blue (most Republicans tried to argue purple)  to being staunchly Red with only one token Democrat left standing….Governor John Lynch. The swing to the right was historic with super majorities elected in both chambers.

One would think that super conservatives would have a lock in New Hampshire for the Presidential primary, but wait; one would have to read the tea leaves. Many of the newly elected members came out of the tea party movement voted in by energized tea party activists and disenfranchised former Republicans.

Then a funny thing happened on the way to the election of a new Republican State Party Chair. Incumbent John H Sununu (yup, former Governor and Bush 41 Chief of Staff) announced a hand picked successor, only to have activists push back to the perceived manipulation. If anyone could be considered the force behind the NH Tea Party movement, it is 2010 gubernatorial candidate Jack Kimball. His victory at the State Party election in January put a serious crack in the granite good old boys network and put Harry Reid’s prediction about a tea party fizzle to rest. 

What effect will the Tea Party activists have in NH presidential politics? First off, it is still anyone’s game. Mitt Romney is best recognized and leads the polls. He was a candidate in 08, has a second home on the Lake, helped a lot of those newly elected, and maintained his strong organization in place. It is thought his to lose, but dodging Mass care will be tough. In a straw poll at that State Party Convention — with only the most active Republican movers and shakers able to vote — Romney pulled a strong first with 37%. Ron Paul was second with his strong and dedicated following. From there, it’s anyone’s game. Those down at one or two percent could still be major players — but only if they engage now and get to work letting savvy NH voters kick the proverbial tires.

But there is no done deal in NH until the last vote is counted. This year’s field looks to be chock full of social conservatives who will be splitting that vote. This opens the field for conservatives not known for strong social records. While Romney topped that Convention poll, when the questions were asked about the most important issues voters were looking for in a candidate, the social issues were rock bottom. This is good news for those candidates a little to the right of center and those attractive to libertarian leaning voters.

Fran Wendelboe is a former fourteen year conservative member of the NH House of Representatives.  She is a former Deputy Majority Leader, has been active in campaigns at all levels in NH, and is principal of Wendelboe Consulting.  She blogs for the TheLobbyNH and is an Arena Participant with Politico.