Black Voters and the Mayoral Campaign

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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC, and the final Democratic primary mayoral debate is tonight seven o'clock on channel four, WNBC TV. We'll have excerpts and take your reactions on tomorrow's show here. Right now, we'll talk to Christina Greer and open the phone specifically for our Black voters today in the mayoral primary. The Marist poll that came out on Monday estimated Black voters at around 30% of the electorate, and as of a week ago, giving Eric Adams a big lead, 43% among the people polled who identified as Black, compared to just 11% for Maya Wiley, who was next, 43 to 11. Andrew Yang had 10% support. 14% were undecided. Kathryn Garcia was not connecting very much with Black voters with just 7% support, even as she has been rising with other groups at a faster pace.

Based on endorsements and some other news, there's reason to believe Maya Wiley is probably doing better than she did at when they finished taking the poll a week ago today. Adams, too, has picked up some significant new endorsements. So, Wiley has a mountain to climb. It may depend on how she does with ranked-choice voters and who they choose second, as our last guest was just saying. Maybe you saw the Jeff Mays article in the New York Times today, 'Battle for Black voters in New York City's Mayor's race centers on policing'. Back with us now, Christina Greer, Fordham University political science professor, and co-host of the podcast FAQ NYC and author of the book, Black Ethnics. Hi, Christina, interesting times. Welcome back to WNYC.

Christina Greer: It's always Interesting times, Brian, how are you?

Brian Lehrer: I'm doing okay. First, on those Marist poll results, if they seem about right to you, what do you make in general of the racial and borough by borough breakouts? It looks, on first blush, like Kathryn Garcia is the candidate of white Manhattanites. It's the only borough and only racial group where she leads, but she leads significantly in each, in Manhattan, and among white voters. It's Adams, with his message of, "I know both sides, police brutality and crime," who is beating everyone else among Black voters. It's the only major number in the whole poll where anybody goes above 40%. Adams, 43% Black support. Second place, Wiley, in the teens. Please, give us your political science professor wisdom on this and tell us if it seems to you to be what meets the eye?

Christina Greer: Yes, it doesn't seem completely out of the ordinary. When we think about the diversity within Black voters in New York City, we have to think about so many different diverse groups of Black people within the five boroughs. You've got your homeowners, you've got Black people who want more policing because they feel neglected by the NYPD in their particular communities. You have Black communities that feel like they're over-policed. You have some people who have been victims of 'Stop and Frisk'.

The relationship between Black voters and the NYPD is quite complicated. It's not to say also the Black voters don't read the New York Times, but I don't think that the New York Times endorsement of Kathryn Garcia necessarily moved many people one way or the other. Eric Adams is an interesting figure in the sense that, of the, say, four primary Black candidates who were on the ballot, Eric Adams, Wiley, McGuire, and Morales, Eric Adams is also the only one who's ever held political office. He has this constant insider-outsider narrative that he's been able to push through that's resonated clearly not just with Black voters, but with other voters as well if you look at some of the numbers.

Brian Lehrer: Now, listeners, as we try to give different groups of voters the floor in a concentrated way on different days. Black New York City registered democrats are likely to vote or have already voted in this primary, the floor is yours. 646-435-7280, 646-435-7280. How do you compare Eric Adams and Maya Wiley in particular? Between them in the Marist poll, they have a majority of Black voters as of last week. On how you see Adams versus Wiley, 646-435-7280, if you're a voter who identifies as Black in the New York City primary. Also, have you considered Kathryn Garcia, seriously? Why are you deciding for or against ranking her? 646-435-7280.

Also, we'll give you the chance to say who you're choosing second in this ranked-choice voting experiment year, because it certainly might make a difference in the ultimate outcome. 646-435-7280. How much does identity play a role in your voting decisions as opposed to left-right ideology or any other factors? Juan Manuel Benitez yesterday was talking about that here with respect to Latino voters. How about for those of you who identify as Black? 646-435-7280.

Or, anything you want to say or ask Christina Greer, if you are a Black likely voter today or already have voted person in the mayoral race. 646-435-7280, or tweet your comment or question @BrianLehrer. Christina, let me play for you and for our listeners a short excerpt from a Maya Wiley ad that's running now, and then a short soundbite from Eric Adams and ask you to compare and contrast. Here's Wiley.

Maya Wiley: They rammed into peaceful protestors, beat others to the ground and New York's leaders defended it, but it was an injustice to those of us know Black lives matter. I'm Maya Wiley, as a mom and civil rights lawyer, I've had enough.

Brian Lehrer: That, of course, all pertain to the NYPD, and here's a little of Eric Adams.

Ad interviewee 1: 22 years on thef force.

Ad interviewee 2: Borough President of Brooklyn.

Ad interviewee 3: He's born for this.

Ad interviewee 4: He will use his experience as a cop to take these guns off the street.

Brian Lehrer: Do those ad snippets, Christina, encapsulate how they're competing?

Christina Greer: Right, but did they also encapsulate, Brian, the incredible diversity, not just within the Black electorate, but within Black families, but also within sort of Black people? On the one hand, yes, there are many voters who were saying, "I'm going to the polls because I want someone who is still going to address 'Stop and Frisk', who's going to address the fallout from last summer's protests and some of the brutality that we saw on display then." Other folks say, "Well, if Eric Adams was on the force in some capacity, are we going to have someone who can actually talk to the NYPD, and NYPD officers won't turn their back on him the way they did to de Blasio?"

We have to understand, though, keep in mind, there are a lot of Black folks who actually are in the NYPD, who have family members in the NYPD, who want to support the NYPD as well. I think Eric Adams is capitalizing over that. What I find fascinating is that I've always thought that this race, in the very beginning, might be a little bit more of a conversation between Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, and Ray McGuire, in the sense that Eric Adams said, "We get crime under control and then finances come."

Ray McGuire's philosophy was, if we get the finances under control, then crime inevitably decreases because we know some of the crime that we're seeing and the public safety issues are economically related and people feeling desperate. Then, you have Maya Wiley, as a representation of the more progressive wing of the Black electorate, which is not the majority of the Black electorate, but it is a strong, significant force of the Black electorate, especially in a primary. I thought it would be more of a triangular relationship as opposed to a dichotomous relationship when it came to Black voters in a certain way.

Brian Lehrer: Let's take a phone call. Tanya in East New York, you're on WNYC. Hi, Tanya, thank you for calling in.

Tanya: Hi, thanks for taking my call, Brian. I love your show. You're so fair. If Black lives matter, it does at this radio station. I love you guys.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you so much.

Tanya: I was thinking of Wiley. When I watched the debate, it seemed like-- the debates really turned me from Eric Adams because I am in a thought process, like the same old, same old thing, because he's been around for so long. I'm more leaning towards Wiley over Eric Adams. Then, the other gentleman, I forgot his name. I just can't think of him, oh God.

Brian Lehrer: Ray McGuire?

Tanya: Yes, I'm going to do my five choices, but those are my top three. Yes.

Brian Lehrer: Tanya, thank you. Thank you very much. Let's go next to Michael in Queens. Michael, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Michael: Hi, how are you doing? I'm voting for Eric Adams. I feel that Eric is-- Well, number one, my top priority is public safety and relations with the police. That's why I'm voting for Eric Adams. The other candidates, I don't think, as has been said by your guest, can relate to the police in a way that will be effective for New Yorkers in general, and African-Americans in particular.

Brian Lehrer: What's your thought about what would happen under a Wiley mayoralty with her stance toward public safety that, I guess, concerns you?

Michael: What concerns me about Maya Wiley [inaudible 00:10:18] the background to-- I think she'll be more confrontational with the police than Eric Adams. I think he'll be more nuanced and be able to be more effective than Maya Wiley.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much, Michael. We really appreciate it. David in Astoria next. David, you're on WNYC. Thank you for calling in.

David: Thank you. Good morning. Love your show. Basically, Wiley's my number one. It wasn't always the case. Dianne Morales was the only enthusiastic vote I would've cast, but that is no longer the case. As a rallying point, Kathryn Garcia, who I honestly didn't want on my ballot when this all started, has risen up to potentially number two, not because I'm super enthusiastic about her, but as a strategy going against Adams and Yang, who I will not be putting on my ballot.

Brian Lehrer: What's your vision of what would happen badly if Adams is the mayor?

David: Well, I'll hone in on this. Even though I'm not including Yang on my ballot, he said something at the last debate that caught my ear. When Adams is in front of certain crowds and he's asked about crime, he cites, "Hey, I was a cop 20 years ago," but he's in front of other crowds, all of a sudden, "I was beaten." So, he's being, what do you call it, a politician. I just don't trust him. I don't trust him.

Brian Lehrer: David, thank you very much. Christina Greer, there we got probably pretty representative views from a Wiley supporter and from an Adams supporter of what the vision is, not only of what might work, but what might not work if one or the other gets into office.

Christina Greer: Yes. I think for those who are concerned about, say, a Wiley mayoralty, they're concerned that because of her very effective ads and what she said about the NYPD and policing that she'll be walking into a police department that is unwilling to work with her from day one. We know that Black mayors, historically, not just obviously in New York, but across the country, have had difficult relations with their police departments, whether it's assumptions that they want to make them smaller or crack down, but there are also some historic racial and ethnic tensions that have always existed between Black mayors and their police departments.

With Eric Adams, I think some people find that he talks out of both sides of his mouth. I think that the critiques of Adams are that we don't know what kind of drama we'll be walking into, whether it's with the real estate, whether with its personnel, personal or personnel, or whether or not this kind of insider-outsider status with the NYPD-- Some people think that it's great. Obviously, the NYPD would want to work with him because he's technically one of them. Others would say, "Well, because he's been so outspoken about wanting to change things, would that make his job more difficult? And, is he being a politician with this slippery way of articulating certain ideas and visions that he has for crime and public safety?"

As we get closer, though, I think what we realize is-- and the piece I picked up from the callers was folks are starting to pay attention. Obviously, this weekend will be a major weekend for people to decide if they also choose to vote early. Voting early ends on Father's Day, which is Sunday. There is no early voting on Monday, and then June 22nd is election day, 6:00 AM to 9:00 PM.

Hopefully, we'll have some people who are still on the fence, but they'll decide to vote. I think the bigger concern is that not just with Black voters, but voters writ large, because we've seen these abysmal and embarrassingly low rates of turnout for our municipal elections. People don't really know how to feel about particular candidates. They're not in love with any candidates, so they choose to abstain.

My hope is that, even if there's no ideal candidate, they'll still participate because that's better than nothing. So, we'll have to see. You and I have been talking about this race for over six months, but we have to also remember many voters are just now paying attention this week and essentially doing a crash course in who these people are, what they stand for and what the vision is for New York City in the next four years.

Brian Lehrer: With Christina Greer, as we take calls from any of you who identify as Black on who you're leaning toward or what your questions are about candidates in the mayoral race, 646-435-7280. I was just going to go to Dash in Hell's Kitchen who hung up. Let's try Onika in Brooklyn. Hi, Onika, you're on NYC.

Onika: Hi. I am not supporting Eric Adams. I have followed his career and he definitely did stand up for Black people in terms of 'Stop and Frisk'. My more concern is on the devastation that he will play on public education, bringing in more charter schools and then also looking at the displacement of Black and brown people from their communities in Brooklyn. Eric Adams was pretty quiet on that issue. Also, the pipeline that's being built in Bronxville. I haven't really heard anything from him about that. My number one is on Maya Wiley and number two is Dianne Morales, and I actually wanted Stringer, but, the sexual harassment incident is a big issue. He's not on the ballot because of that.

Brian Lehrer: Onika, did you consider Kathryn Garcia at all? Just curious.

Onika: No, I didn't because, while she is very accomplished, I see Kathryn Garcia as older Brooklyn, even though she would be the first female mayor. I still see old Brooklyn policies coming from her.

Brian Lehrer: Onika, thank you so much. Juliette in East Harlem, you're on WNYC. Hi, Juliette.

Juliette: Hi, thank you for taking the call. I like particularly Maya Wiley. I was on the fence between her and Eric Adams, but I haven't heard Eric come out strongly enough for a wide variety of issues. I know that Maya has worked in government and I like her energy and I like her passion. She's going to be number one. I'm not sure if Adams is going to be number two, but I'm sure that Scott Donovan is going to be number three, because I heard him on your show at least once and I definitely appreciate where he's coming from in terms of his work with the federal government. I'll do a little bit more research. I'm not going to be an early voter, and I'll do a little bit more research, yes.

Brian Lehrer: Juliette, thank you so much. We appreciate it. Let's pick up on a couple of things from that caller set. Christina, one, the caller Onika mentioned charter schools and it's one of the reasons that she's not for Eric Adams, because he seems more supportive of charter schools. How do you see that playing across Black New York? I think it's an issue that people have different opinions on in pretty large numbers.

Christina Greer: Right, Indeed. I think it'll be interesting to look at the data borough by borough, neighborhood by neighborhood. There are some parents who really want/need charter schools, and there are others who think that charter schools have been part of the reason why public education is not where it should be, especially for Black and Latinx children.

I think that that's a major issue, but also depending on what neighborhood you're in, the conversation about education might be secondary to the conversation about public safety and crime. It depends on what people are seeing. I also think it's fascinating that, I know we've been concerned about the low rates of early voting, but I do think, if your callers are any representative sample of New Yorkers, which I think they are, because you provide such a great service to the city of New York, I do think a lot of people need those extra two days to continue to think about candidates and where they stand on a myriad of issues, not just crime and public safety and not just education, but really thinking about the vision.

As one caller said, she likes Maya Wiley's energy. I think some people are still looking at-- we've had somewhat of an absentee mayor for the last few years. What type of person do you want to hear from every single day as they present a vision as we emerge, hopefully, from COVID. We're not out of COVID yet. We also need someone who's going to be able to work with the governor, work with city council, work on a vision of the city whilst also dealing with some really complex current issues. I think some people will be looking at a personality style as well, as they go to the booth.

Brian Lehrer: I wonder if that's related to this, here's a tweet from listener Grant, who asks, "Is the Wiley-Adams split breaking down on age lines? It seems like boomers trend Adams across the racial spectrum. It certainly is a fact from the Marist poll, I mentioned this yesterday, Adams leads all candidates among voters age 45 and up. Among voters age 45 and under, he's only tied for third.

Christina Greer: Well, I think we know that younger Black voters tend to lean to the more progressive end of the ideological spectrum, and that would obviously bode very well for Maya Wiley. We know that older Black voters, especially in New York, tend to be homeowners, tend to be a little more conservative, but we know almost all 90% of the Black ideological diversity is trapped into one party. That's the Democratic party, because of choices that the Republican party has made.

If we had a more robust two-party system not just in New York, but across the country, we'd see a lot more freedom for Black voters to have a lot more nuance in their decisions. We don't have that. You have relatively conservative Black voters who were Democrats in New York, and incredibly progressive Black voters who are also Democrats in New York, all participating in a primary. Right now, you have four legitimate Black candidates.

There are more, but I would say four legitimate Black candidates who are on the ballot, and Eric Adams presents one range of the spectrum and Maya Wiley presents the other. I do think it's really interesting. I want to see the borough breakdown with Scott Stringer to see whether or not the Upper West Side has abandoned him or not. My completely unscientific straw poll, as we call it on the show, shows that people aren't breaking with him as much as the media may suggest. I'm also curious to see if those sexual harassment claims actually hold fast for some voters on the Upper West Side who've been loyal Scott Stringer supporters for many, many years.

Brian Lehrer: 15 seconds left in the show. Why did Sharpton choose not to endorse?

Christina Greer: The Phoenix. Oh, Al Sharpton. Well, I think he understands the complexity of the diversity of the electorate, not just the Black electorate. With the ranked-choice voting, it's really hard to make a call. With voting in June as opposed to September, it's really hard to make a call and I think Sharpton will work with whatever mayor comes into office in November.

Brian Lehrer: Christina Greer, Fordham university, political science professor and co-host of the podcast, FAQ NYC and author of the book, Black Ethics. As always, Christina, thanks so much.

Christina Greer: Thank you, Brian.

 

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