Dispatch from Pennsylvania

Title: Dispatch from Pennsylvania

Brian Lehrer: It's the Brian Lehrer show on WNYC. Good morning, everyone. Hope you had a great Labor Day weekend. If you were off, maybe today you're back at work or back at school, so you're probably not listening right now, but at some jobs you can. Hello to those of you who are finally off today after working all weekend in the restaurant or the hotel for all those Labor Day vacationers and striking hotel workers, we see you and we'll talk about your issues during this Labor Day week. This being the Tuesday after Labor Day, it also means it's exactly nine weeks until Election Day, but it's really much closer than that. If I'm reading my early voting list correctly, early voting begins in less than two weeks in Pennsylvania, the first state to go to the polls. Important that it is Pennsylvania of all places, the state considered the ultimate battleground in the presidential election, there's almost no path to victory without Pennsylvania, so it's no surprise that there is so much action there right now. For example, President Biden appeared in Pittsburgh yesterday for Labor Day in support of the Harris campaign.

President Biden: I believe in American steel companies, American-owned and operated steel companies. A simple reason, it's not hyperbole. American steelworkers are the best steelworkers in the world. I made it clear last time I was in Pittsburgh, United States Steel, an iconic American company for more than a century, is going to remain an American company.

[applause]

Brian Lehrer: President Biden in Pittsburgh yesterday and former president, Trump, appeared in Johnstown to start the weekend on Friday.

Donald Trump: I will turn the United States into a manufacturing superpower very quickly. We are ready to do that. We will no longer allow foreign countries to take our jobs and steal our wealth.

Brian Lehrer: Trump on Friday in Johnstown. Remember, western Pennsylvania was also where the Trump assassination attempt took place in July. Also remember, the Trump-Harris televised debate is set for one week from tonight, assuming Trump doesn't back out. Where? In Philadelphia. We're going to do our first politics segment of the post-Labor Day season, specifically about the keystone state. Those of you in or with ties to Pennsylvania, we'll open up the phones to you shortly for questions, comments or stories.

You can start calling now, but we're going to get through a little material before we go to the phones. 212-433-WNYC. Call or text, 212-433-9692. Let's bring on our guest. Steve Ulrich, managing editor of the website PoliticsPA. Steve, thanks for joining us. It must be busy times for you, so thanks for giving us some time. Welcome to WNYC.

Steve Urlich: Brian, thank you so much for the invitation. I think your listeners and interested parties nationwide are finding out every little city we have in our commonwealth right now, as you mentioned, just the focus is on Pennsylvania, and it is a busy time.

Brian Lehrer: Did I get that early voting calendar right? Is it two weeks from yesterday when early voting begins in Pennsylvania?

Steve Urlich: That is correct. Pennsylvania statute says that 50 days prior to an election that election offices are required to make ballots available. It may take a little bit longer for certain county election offices to get their ballots out in the mail, so people were expecting them within the next two weeks, that may be a little early, but voters are able to go to their election office and request a ballot and be able to cast a vote that early. Yes.

Brian Lehrer: Is that seen as favoring one party or another, the fact that Pennsylvanians can vote so early, assuming all the county offices are ready for it, as you say? I think typically over the last four years, early voting has been seen to favor Democrats because Republicans during the pandemic, as we'll remember, railed against the existence of it.

Steve Urlich: I think it does benefit Democrats, Brian, in the fact that you are essentially banking the vote. I know the GOP has used that as their catchphrase, but Democrats seem to prefer after COVID and has continued through the 2022 and now into 2024, the idea of being able to, I don't want to say get it out of the way, but the task is complete, it's done, and they don't have to worry about it any longer. It does seem to favor Democrats. Republicans, I think, haven't quite relieved themselves of that 2020 Donald Trump message that said, you have to go to the poll on Election Day. Republicans continue to try to get an early vote out there, but they are lagging far behind Democrats in the state.

Brian Lehrer: when you talked a minute ago about different counties being at different levels of readiness for day one of early voting, that gave me a little shudder and a question because one way that certainly Democrats look at this election season and some analysts is Democrats are getting ready to turn out the vote. Republicans are getting ready to get county executives, state legislatures, and judges to overturn the vote or suppress the vote. Do you think there's any discretion on the part of county executives in that scenario that you were painting where some executives don't want Pennsylvania's to be able to vote as early as the law allows?

Steve Urlich: I think that is the case with many that lean to the right. We had a case in 2020 in Fulton County, located in south central Pennsylvania, that voted 86% in favor of Trump, but they were part of the Dominion Voting Systems, the Smartmatic voting machines, where they tried to disqualify them. Pennsylvania Supreme Court just fined Fulton County $1 million. We're not sure if the money necessarily is going to dissuade Republican county commissioners or Republican judges from trying to sway things.

I spent two years as an election director in York County, Pennsylvania, prior to starting with PoliticsPA. We didn't see any of that locally, but we have heard of other instances like Fulton County where machinations are underway to make it more difficult to count the vote. Certainly, that's one of the things that's going to come into play on November 5th. If people are going to stay up all night thinking that Pennsylvania vote is going to be completely counted and ready to be added to the mix, they're sorely mistaken.

Brian Lehrer: Really? We should plan our Wednesday, November 6th, show on the assumption, or at least a likelihood, that there will not be a result by then?

Steve Urlich: What Pennsylvania typically does, Brian, is all the mail ballots that are submitted prior to Election Day in Pennsylvania's 67 counties, those are opened and tabulated first. Pennsylvania does not allow what we refer to as pre-canvassing, which would mean, Brian, if you sent your mail ballot in, it was received October 1st, all that does in the election office is stamped as received, is put into the statewide database that says, "We received your vote, but it's not opened until seven o'clock on Election Day."

You can only imagine what it's like trying to open all those ballots, trying to smooth them all out, trying to run them all through the scanners. You're trying to get those votes tabulated before you even begin thinking about what's going on in various polling places around the commonwealth.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. 7:00 PM, I presume, on Election Day, right?

Steve Urlich: We are allowed to open them at 7:00 AM in Pennsylvania. Polls close at 8:00 PM. What you often see is the first announcement of vote totals in the commonwealth is almost always mail balloting. Then you still have those mail ballots that are delivered to perhaps your local county election office on Election Day. Those usually aren't even tabulated until after all the other votes on Election Day at the polling places are tabulated.

Then you add in provisional ballots, which would mean if you went to your polling place and you didn't show up, your name didn't show up in the poll book, or for some reason you were challenged, you can cast a provisional ballot, but we're not even allowed to look at those until three days afterwards. In 2020, I know just in York County, 1 of 67 counties in the Commonwealth, we had 8,000 provisional ballots to go through, which took us the better part of 4 or 5 days. You can only imagine if Pennsylvania remains as close as everyone expects it to be, it's going to take some time to do it accurately. That's the most important job of any election official. It's not about getting it done fast, it's getting it done right.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. With those parameters that you were just describing on when the last votes will be counted, it could be really relevant to Pennsylvania's result, and therefore to the national result, based on an article that I'm going to cite now from your website called How Close Is It? It has Harrison-Trump tied in the latest Emerson Poll 48-48, but the stat that jumped out at me was that only 2% said they were undecided. Does that sound right to you? Are there so few voters still in play?

Steve Urlich: When we look at most of the polls involving Pennsylvania voters, and at PoliticsPA, we really focus on the commonwealth versus what you may see nationwide. It does appear, from all the data that's been coming in over the course of the past year, that 95% of the electorate already has made up its mind. I think it's important for everyone to understand that polls are a snapshot in time that the article that you referenced, it was tied, 48-48, but when you polled all the likely voters, there were 950 likely voters that were surveyed in the state, one more person said they preferred Kamala Harris than Donald Trump. One person.

The ironic thing also that really jumped out at me is when you dig deeper into the polling data, six of those people that were reached out to and said they were likely to vote said they had never heard of Kamala Harris. Six of them also said they had never heard of Donald Trump. I bring that up just as a indication that polls sometimes don't tell you everything that you want them to, but as you mentioned earlier, in this situation, Harris and Trump are essentially deadlocked in the state.

Brian Lehrer: Assuming that's basically the case, is turnout a bigger issue now than persuasion in Pennsylvania?

Steve Urlich: Absolutely. That is an excellent point. In 2020, even during the pandemic, 76% of Pennsylvania's registered voters came out to either cast the mail ballot or go to the polls. I would not be surprised if Pennsylvania, given the attention that we get right now, if that doesn't push 80% this time around. It's really going to turn into, as you mentioned, who gets out the vote. The Harris-Walz campaign just opened their 50th local office around the state to help spread the word in more rural counties.

We understand, I believe, the Trump-Vance campaign has approximately 8 to 10. I think a lot of the enthusiasm that was generated by the ascension and the nomination of Kamala Harris to the top of the Democratic ticket has spilled over in trying to turn some of the more ruby-red areas of Pennsylvania to perhaps not be as ruby red in 2024.

Brian Lehrer: Do you think the surge in volunteerism for Harris that we saw during the Democratic Convention Week and also in the couple of weeks before, after she got into the race, is really mattering on the ground in terms of the get-out-the-vote effort or even the last minute knocking on doors to try to persuade people effort?

Steve Urlich: I do believe it does help. There is something about your neighborhood when a neighbor comes to your door and knocks on it and wants to talk to you. Oftentimes, if you're friendly with your neighbors, you don't find people slamming doors in their face because I favor a Democratic candidate and they favor a Republican candidate or anything like that. You'll have your neighbor that will knock on the door and just say, "Are you registered to vote? Do you know where your polling place is? Do you know who you might be interested in voting for? If not, let me share with you this information."

I think what you find with especially Democrats that I've seen recently is that enthusiasm to be involved with the campaign. Do whatever you can to help elect your favorite candidate, I think is going to have an impact in Pennsylvania.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, if you're just joining us, we're doing our first presidential campaign and election segment of the post-Labor Day period, specifically on the state of Pennsylvania, which is considered the ultimate swing state and also is where early voting begins, earliest in the nation, two weeks from yesterday. Less than two weeks away, people will actually be voting, not just following political news, if they follow political news, in Pennsylvania. We're doing this with Steve Ulrich, who's managing editor of the website PoliticsPA.

Listeners, we invite your phone calls. If you are from, in, or have any ties to Pennsylvania, the phones are open for your comments, questions, or stories about the presidential race in the state. For Steve Ulrich, managing editor for PoliticsPA 212-433-WNYC. Call or text 212-433-9692. I think Michael in Jackson Heights, Queens, has some personal experience relevant to what you were just saying, Steve. Let's bring him right on. Michael, you're on WNYC. Hello.

Michael: Hi. How are you? Hi, Brian. I love your show. My husband and I were just in Monroe County, which is in the Poconos area, where we also have a house. We were going door-to-door canvassing and having the list that we had. Our turf was particularly independent voters, undecided voters, and people who had swung between Republican and Democratic presidential candidates.

It was just quite an experience to have conversations with people who were undecided, not only necessarily undecided on who they'd vote for, but undecided as to whether they would vote. One person talked to us about voting for Jill Stein, which was really interesting to have a conversation about how he believed if enough people could vote for Jill Stein, that she could win the state.

Brian Lehrer: The Green Party candidate. Go ahead.

Michael: Exactly. Yes, a third party candidate, which those candidates have historically swung in sometimes the opposite direction of what people wanted. What came up that I wasn't expecting was a number of people talked about Gaza, and they were waiting to hear more about what Kamala Harris had to say about that to decide whether they were for her or not. It was interesting that that came up. I wasn't expecting that to be a major issue for a number of people.

Brian Lehrer: Would you say that you were canvassing mostly in a progressive area? If the Green Party nominee was on people's lips, if Gaza was on people's lips, is the neighborhood you were in largely progressive?

Michael: I didn't get the sense that it was. This was a development just outside of Mount Pocono, which is a small town. The Poconos is very much this giant suburb of New York and New Jersey in a sense. Of course, many local people who are born and bred in Pennsylvania, but to me, it felt like, I don't really know the designation, but maybe a lower middle-class neighborhood homeowners. It seemed like some people were really struggling, and it did not strike me as a progressive vibe.

Brian Lehrer: Thank you very much for your call, Michael. I appreciate reporting your experience. Let's go right to another caller. We played the clips earlier of Trump on Friday in Johnstown and Biden yesterday in Pittsburgh. Craig in Greenwich, Connecticut, says he has ties to both of those places. Craig, you're on WNYC. Thank you for calling in.

Craig: You're welcome. Yes. My ex-wife grew up in Johnstown. I moved there and-- when did I move there? Right before Obama was elected first term and then moved to Pittsburgh four years later and then moved back to Connecticut after that. It's interesting that her whole family up until Obama was a Democratic stalwart or we're all Democrats, and after Obama was elected, you can see that they all became very, very deep Republican. She's actually on the outs with her older relatives. She stayed progressive. The more progressive she's gotten, the more Republican they've gotten.

Brian Lehrer: What is your observation of what flipped them? Was it race per se, the fact that we had a Black president? Was it specific policies? What would you say flipped?

Craig: I think it was race, and I think it was also policies. I think they benefited. John Murtha was their representative for 40 years or so, and he was pretty high up in the Democratic Party, and he was bringing a lot of business and industry to the area. Once he died, they're quite a [crosstalk]--

Brian Lehrer: They're kind of Democrat? Didn't seem to be in office?

Craig: They're kind of Democrat. Yes, they left office, industry left. Johnstown area is very-- it went through a lot of economic downturn. [crosstalk].

Brian Lehrer: Right. Judging from the speech excerpts we played in the intro, both Biden and Trump, and of course, they said other things too, but listening to those speeches, it suggested to me that the economy is the number one issue in places like Johnstown and Pittsburgh. I think I hear you saying that for your in-laws.

Craig: I think Johnstown more so. Pittsburgh, more or less is more-- it's not as a republican stronghold as Johnstown is.

Brian Lehrer: Craig, I'm going to leave it there, and I really appreciate your call and your observations from your personal experience. Let me go back to our guest, Steve Ulrich, managing editor of PoliticsPA. Can we start on that point in reacting to these two callers? Like I say, judging from the speeches we excerpted from, would it be accurate to say that the economy is the number one issue in Pennsylvania, or at least in Pittsburgh and Johnstown, where Biden and Trump respectively chose to speak on Labor Day weekend?

Steve Urlich: Absolutely, Brian. I wanted to respond to Craig. I grew up in an area just 30 miles south of State College. Pennsylvania is known for, I think, James Carville referred to it as the T. There's Pittsburgh to the west, there's Philadelphia in the east, and everything else in between, I think James Carville referred to it as Kentucky. Manufacturing has left most areas in central Pennsylvania. We're seeing high school age students after they graduate, they're leaving the area, and the economy has become a big issue.

I think there's a feeling among folks that live in that area that they've been left behind and that the Democrats have really made an effort to really court more elites than remember their roots among unions and the like. I think that's one of the reasons why you see Harris and Biden making a point to show up in Pittsburgh at union rallies yesterday. That's why you see Trump showing up in Johnstown or York, Pennsylvania, trying to talk about the economic challenges that those areas face.

It always comes down to-- in the end, it's always the economy. Stupid, I guess, is what the phrase is. It makes sense that Pittsburgh and Johnstown areas like that are certainly in the fray. I think as we get closer and closer, for those who are undecided, I think that will be the tipping point when all is said and done.

Brian Lehrer: Well, in that context, maybe it's worth fact-checking both of the clips that we played for their accuracy and their relevance to the electorate today. In the Biden clip, he said, "I believe in American steel companies, American-owned and operated steel companies. It's not hyperbole. American steelworkers are the best in the world, and I made it clear last time I was in Pittsburgh, the United States Steel, an iconic American company for over a century, is going to remain an American company," and people applaud it. Is the steel industry anything like it was before? Do those words inspire any confidence that there are going to be steel jobs like there were generations ago?

In the Trump clip, he said, "We will no longer allow foreign countries to take our jobs and steal our wealth." Of course, he had the tariffs policy when he was president, and Biden continued a lot of that. The theory of tariffs is that if you charge a lot of money to import goods that could theoretically be made in the United States, then the manufacturers aren't going to move the jobs overseas to China or wherever, where they can get very, very cheap labor, because with the tariffs, it won't pay to move those jobs and there'll be more American jobs. I'm not sure that worked. I'm not sure Pittsburgh considers itself a steel town anymore or that that's where its future is. What do you say about either of those clips?

Steve Urlich: That's a great point. I think Pittsburgh identifies itself as a steel city when it comes to football season. I don't think they view it anymore. Let's say, the city has gone through a tremendous renaissance. In Allegheny County, the home county to Pittsburgh, has certainly seen an economic upswing. I don't think, given how close the race is--

Brian Lehrer: As a tech sector, right, not as a manufacturing sector?

Steve Urlich: Correct. I'm not sure, given as close as the race is, and we look at the 11 polls that we have averaged-- their statewide polls right now show Harris up by 0.7 points. I'm not sure how Harris and Biden could come to Pittsburgh and say, "No, we're quite happy with Nippon Steel taking US Steel away from us. I'm not sure if that necessarily, the message resonates.

Brian Lehrer: Well, he didn't say he was happy with it. He said, "US Steel is going to remain an American steel company." That was the quote, but maybe that's not based in reality.

Steve Urlich: Once again, just at this point, I think everything is game. I think those who are following politics in the state need to understand that politicians are going to be saying a lot of things here over the next nine weeks to try to curry favor and to court their votes. This is not to say that Democrats are going to allow US Steel to leave the country, go to Japanese ownership or anything like that, it's just that everyone needs to just be a little cautious with their enthusiasm.

Brian Lehrer: Is there any indication that the Trump tariffs actually brought manufacturing jobs back to Pennsylvania? Think anybody's going to vote for Trump on the basis of that in their personal experience?

Steve Urlich: I don't believe so. I don't believe that that is necessarily carrying the day in terms of message with Donald Trump and the GOP. It's more of a, remember how things were in February 2020? Remember where the stock market was. Remember the job was. How was your 401K? Remember that feeling? Forget about what happened afterwards with COVID. Forget about what happened after the election.

Look at what Biden did, by guilt, I guess, by association, what Kamala Harris has done as a member of the administration. You don't want that to continue for the next four years. That's why you want to go back to where I did it. I'm not sure that in Pennsylvania, you didn't necessarily say [unintelligible 00:27:06] are carrying the day.

Brian Lehrer: We're doing our first politics segment of the post-Labor Day season, specifically about the state of Pennsylvania. Those of you in or with ties to this state, considered the ultimate swing state in the presidential election, and where early voting starts first in less than two weeks, those of you with ties to Pennsylvania of any kind, you are invited to call in or text us at 212-433-WNYC with Steve Ulrich, managing editor of the website PoliticsPA. 212-433-9692. We have more to do when we come back from a break.

We have a very relevant Kamala Harris clip from her CNN interview. We have a JD Vance clip, another one in the childless cat lady vein that surfaced over the weekend. Maybe you haven't heard this yet. We're going to talk about gender as an issue, as well as the economy and other things in this ultimate swing state as we continue with Steve Ulrich and you. Brian Lehrer, on WNYC. Stay tuned.

[music]

Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC as we focus on Pennsylvania, the ultimate swing state, and where early voting begins first in the nation in less than two weeks as our first post-Labor Day presidential campaign segment with Steve Ulrich, managing editor of PoliticsPA. I want to play a clip, Steve, from the Harrison-Walz CNN interview last week. This is where the host, Dana Bash, is asking Harris about changing her position from what it was in 2019 when she was running for president about fracking. The exchange begins with part of that question.

Dana Bash: In 2019, you said, "There is no question I'm in favor of banning fracking." Fracking, as you know, is a pretty big issue, particularly in your must-win state of Pennsylvania.

Kamala Harris: Well, let's be clear. My values have not changed. I believe it is very important that we take seriously what we must do to guard against what is a clear crisis in terms of the climate. To do that, we can do what we have accomplished thus far, the Inflation Reduction Act. What we have done to invest, by my calculation, over probably a trillion dollars over the next 10 years, investing in a clean energy economy, what we've already done, creating over 300,000 new clean energy jobs. That tells me from, my experience as vice president, we can do it without banning fracking. In fact, Dana, I cast the tie-breaking vote that actually increased leases for fracking as vice president. I'm very clear about where I stand.

Dana Bash: Was there some policy or scientific data that you saw that you said, "Oh, okay, I get it now"?

Kamala Harris: What I have seen is that we can grow and we can increase a thriving clean energy economy without banning fracking.

Dana Bash: Okay.

Brian Lehrer: Harris on CNN with Dana Bash last week. Steve, how big a part of Pennsylvania's economy is fracking for oil or natural gas these days? We heard Dana Bash mention Pennsylvania specifically single it out in the question.

Steve Urlich: It's one of those great dichotomies, Brian, because if you are outside of the commonwealth, you hear fracking. I think it's viewed much more importantly outside of our state than it is inside. Fracking does cause environmental issues, and we are all aware of that. We're also aware that the amount of shale underneath the Marcellus shale area, being able to get oil out of that is important not only to the state but certainly the country as well. I think if you were to ask the average voter who has not made up their mind or maybe on the fence, does Kamala Harris's position on fracking, is that going to sway your decision? I'm not necessarily sure that our data agrees with that as much.

Pennsylvanians are more concerned really about the inflation, the economy, and jobs more so than something that for-- I'd say, two-thirds of the state, they would say, "Well, fracking takes place in western Pa, so I'm not really that familiar with it." I'm not sure it's as important as necessarily national media make it out to be.

Brian Lehrer: That's the assumption is that it's a jobs issue because there's so much shale, as you say, in the state, and that there'd be a lot of industry jobs there, oil and gas industry jobs. Is that overestimated by the national media?

Steve Urlich: I think it is overestimated, but I will say this. I think when you take those comments and the idea that fracking was banned and those jobs were lost, it may take Pennsylvanians back to a day, like our caller that talked about Johnstown, when you saw manufacturing leave Johnstown, what happened to the city. If fracking was banned, what would happen then to the economies in the western part of the state? That might be in the back of people's minds, but because they don't see it as a reality yet, I'm not sure they necessarily say Harris and Walz are going to come in as the Green New Deal candidates and immediately eliminate fracking and our jobs are going to disappear.

Brian Lehrer: Let me take a Pittsburgh call right now. Kathryn in Pittsburgh, you're on WNYC. Hi, Kathryn.

Kathryn: Hi. I have to say that I am a New Yorker, but I moved out to Pittsburgh seven years ago. When we moved here, there was pump signs all over on the way out, and it's all the way out. Pittsburgh is right next to Ohio. If I go to the west, it's [unintelligible 00:33:16]. Anyway, my experience in Pittsburgh has been that it's extremely Democratic, extremely Democrat. It's very blue. The mayor is a Democrat, and he comes out for all of the major issues. My experience here has been almost misleading because once you get out of Pittsburgh, you're in an ocean of red. I think people have said this already, but there's a little bit of blue by State College, and then till you get to Philly, it's all red. [crosstalk] of itself--

Brian Lehrer: Yes, in Pittsburgh itself, very blue.

Kathryn: Yes. Now, of course, I'm only there seven years. The people I meet tend to be of the educational, health, and tech sectors. I cannot say that's representative of everyone, but they are people from Pittsburgh. What I heard as reaction to US Steel being sold was, well, we shouldn't be selling to Chinese. Not so much about, "This is our future or even our past." I think it's recognized as a past. It's even come to be, I don't know what the word is, but it's almost romanticized [crosstalk].

Brian Lehrer: Source of nostalgia, yes. The objection you're saying is to it being sold to a company from another country. Is it Nippon from Japan? Just so we get the country right, Steve, is that accurate?

Steve Urlich: That is correct, Brian. I just want to mention one thing. Kathryn brings up a good point. Pittsburgh is, in itself, the city is very progressive. Representative Summer Lee for the 12th congressional district has been perceived as a member of the squad. There are a lot of progressive ideas that are taking hold in the city of Pittsburgh, but when you look around outside of Allegheny County, you look at Butler County, where Donald Trump had the outdoor rally, where the attempted assassination took place, very, very red in that respect. To her point, she's absolutely right. You have Pittsburgh, you have State College, you have Philadelphia and the color counties around there, and everything else in the state does look red if you look at the map.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, but this is the same pattern that we see all over the country. The cities are blue, the rural areas are red more or less in each case, and the suburbs have the swing voters. Is that Pennsylvania in a nutshell?

Steve Urlich: That is Pennsylvania in a nutshell.

Brian Lehrer: The country in a nutshell.

Steve Urlich: There are three key counties to keep an eye on in Pennsylvania. One is Erie County in the northwest corner, one is Bucks County in the southeastern corner, and the other one is Northampton, that is east of Allentown. For your listeners that might be wondering where, this is in between I-80 and I-78 in the border of Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Those three counties voted for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and the voter registration is pretty much split down the middle. Those are the bellwethers to keep an eye on in our state when you look at 2024.

Brian Lehrer: Let's see. Just in recent electoral history, since you cited those years, did Obama win Pennsylvania both times?

Steve Urlich: Yes, he did.

Brian Lehrer: Did George W. Bush win it or did Al Gore or Kerry in either of those elections win it?

Steve Urlich: Bush won in 2004. I'm hard-pressed to remember 2000.

Brian Lehrer: That's okay.

Steve Urlich: [crosstalk] myself.

Brian Lehrer: We're already establishing it as somewhat of a swing state. If Bush won and then Obama won. Clinton, Trump, how'd it go in 2016?

Steve Urlich: Trump was able to win it in the last moment. Going back to our earlier discussion, Brian, it was Luzerne County, which is the Wilkes-Barre-Scranton area. A lot of those folks, a lot of manufacturing folks, who felt that the Democratic Party had left them behind, and for the first time in a long time, Luzerne County, which is home to many, many strong unions, went for Trump. They also went for Biden in 2020. There are strong--

Brian Lehrer: It really does swing.

Steve Urlich: Absolutely. You're going to see the southeastern counties like Montgomery County, Delaware County, just outside of Philadelphia, they're going to roll up huge Democratic numbers. Allegheny County, huge Democratic numbers. Right now, the battle is on to see if the traditional GOP stronghold in that T and all those red areas in the commonwealth, will be able to turn out and offset that, or will the inroads being made by Harris and Walz doing tours of primarily red areas in the state, will that be able to negate the GOP advantage in that area?

Brian Lehrer: I wonder how much of this is going to have to do with culture war issues that we haven't touched on. I'll play a JD Vance clip here in a minute, but let me set it up by citing something you wrote, citing an NPR story, actually, you asked, "Where do different ideas of masculinity fit into the presidential election?" What were you looking at there?

Steve Urlich: Really getting a sense of-- I grew up in central Pennsylvania. I grew up in a town of 8,000 where the idea of masculinity may be much different than way it is perceived now in perhaps more suburban or urban areas. The idea of the man is the king of the family, drives the pickup truck, watches football, all that kind of stuff, is changing now. You don't see that as much portrayed around the country. You look at other folks that are following politics and you get a sense that this is where the white male, the high school graduate, did not go on to college. They are feeling disenfranchised.

They felt like they're being left behind, and they're looking for a leader, and they're drawn more to Donald Trump. When you look at the disparity in the polling among men and women-- right now in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris has a 10-point lead among women. You take that same, you look at those who are surveyed that did not go to college, the advantage is 12 points for Donald Trump.

Brian Lehrer: Wait, I think you conflated two things there. I was going to ask you about the men versus women polling because I see nationally, it's crazy. I think what I saw was a poll of swing states, all the swing states nationally, that showed Harris up by like 17 points among women and Trump up about the same among men. When you just take men and women, would it break down something like that in Pennsylvania, all education groups?

Steve Urlich: Very similar to that, yes.

Brian Lehrer: Are you saying that non-college-educated women, even with all that that you just described, are still much more for Trump than the college-educated women?

Steve Urlich: Yes. Most of the surveys that we've seen in Pennsylvania, don't break it down into white men, white women. It turns into women, men, college-educated, non-college-educated in that regard.

Brian Lehrer: They don't cross.

Steve Urlich: Right, but I think you're accurate in the numeral and the numbers. That is the way it seems to be breaking.

Brian Lehrer: All right. If the competing ideas about masculinity are in play in this election, so definitely are different ideas of what it means to be a woman. We know Vance is childless. Cat lady slur. Now another clip from him from the same year, 2021, in another podcast, has surfaced via the group Media Matters. The Guardian in the last few days, where he rails against his alma mater, Yale, and how he interprets what they're teaching women. Listen.

JD Vance: You have people at Yale Law School, you have women who think that truly the liberationist path is to spend 90 hours a week working in a cubicle at McKinsey instead of starting a family and having children. I think that those people, in their defense, they genuinely believe that the path of liberation is to work 90 hours in a cubicle at McKinsey. What they don't realize, and I think some of them do eventually realize that, thank God, is that that is actually a path to misery. The path to happiness and to fulfillment is something that these institutions are telling people not to do.

Brian Lehrer: Vance in 2021. How big an issue is Vance's take on women's roles in this election, including clips like that and the originally aired childless cat ladies one?

Steve Urlich: I do think it plays a role in Pennsylvania politics, certainly. Given the fact that the strategy right now for JD Vance seems to be, "Park him in Pennsylvania. Perhaps let him go to Michigan or Wisconsin once in a while," but JD is spending a lot of time in the commonwealth. I'm not sure the message necessarily resonates. You think back to when Donald Trump selected him as his running mate, and it almost appears now, with the benefit of time, that people were correct when they said they thought that perhaps Vance was going to be the next generation of MAGA leaders and he was going to follow Donald Trump after Trump completed four more years.

Watching Joe Biden drop out, watching Kamala Harris take on the Democratic head roll on the ticket, certainly has changed the equation and makes me wonder if Republicans would have been better off not having JD Vance as part of the ticket right now. I just don't think the message is connecting with Pennsylvanians that they certainly need to reach.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. I framed the Vance clip as a take on women's roles, but it does come back to masculinity too, which you wrote about, because he never says men should be as focused on their families as their jobs. He only says women.

Steve Urlich: Absolutely.

Brian Lehrer: I don't know if anybody but me is talking about that. The exclusion of men from what he says people's relationships with their jobs versus their families should be.

Steve Urlich: I certainly think that we all need to give women much more credit. Just because there's a woman on the ballot doesn't mean that women are going to run out and vote for her. I do think when you have male coming out and making those types of comments that denigrate women, I can't see where that helps the Republican ticket. Certainly in a state as close as Pennsylvania is going to be, it just makes no sense to me.

Brian Lehrer: All right. We could go on all morning and talk about Pennsylvania in the presidential election, but I'm going to let you go after one closing question, because the debate, assuming it goes forward, the Harris-Trump debate, is going to be a week from tonight in Philadelphia. I'll tell you an experience I had once covering the scene of a debate on debate day. It was an Obama-McCain debate in 2008 that was taking place at Hofstra University on Long Island. We went out there and we did the show from Hofstra University that morning. We talked to students and other people who were describing the issues that they hoped would come up for them in the debate that night.

When the debate happened, and obviously it was a nationally-televised debate, I don't think they mentioned Long Island once, except for saying where they were debating from. It was all the national issues. Okay, that's fine, but maybe this year is going to be different. Maybe when they debate in Philadelphia next week, because of the role of Pennsylvania, it's going to be a lot about the Philly suburbs. What are you anticipating?

Steve Urlich: I do. I'm really looking forward to this. I don't think we're going to get quite a Super Bowl-type TV ratings, but I would imagine that even if you've already made up your mind, you're going to want to watch to see what happens. Is Kamala Harris, the prosecutor, able to get Donald Trump in any more difficulty? Does Harris misspeak and give Trump the opportunity?

The point you brought up about fracking, you have to think that's going to come up. The way the Democrats have pushed freedom, if they don't talk about freedom in the city of brotherly love, I would be very surprised. I do agree with Brian. I think Pennsylvania will be mentioned more than Long Island is, and I think it's going to be a fascinating debate next week.

Brian Lehrer: Steve Ulrich, managing editor, of the website PoliticsPA. Thanks for giving us so much time tonight. Maybe we can squeeze you back in around the end of the campaign, maybe even after you've been up all night on election night into Wednesday morning. If your prediction comes true, that will arrive at ten o'clock in the morning on the Wednesday, and there won't be a Pennsylvania result yet. But, Steve, thanks-- Go ahead.

Steve Urlich: Thank you so much for having me. I've enjoyed the conversation.

Brian Lehrer: Thanks a lot for today.

 

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