Democrats across New Jersey are ramping up efforts to get out the vote in Republican districts they’re hoping to turn blue. But in the race to keep Democratic Senator Bob Menendez in office, the lack of competitive House races in blue strongholds could be a big problem for the party.
Menendez is running against former pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin, and the race could hinge on districts where voters aren’t as compelled to turn out to the polls.
“The vast majority of the races in question around the country — and I think Senator Menendez’s race is a perfect example of that — will depend on turnout,” said political media consultant Glenn Totten. “These are all going to depend on who goes to the polls. And that's one of the problems I think that the senator faces in northern New Jersey.”
That's why Hudson County Democrats have started sending out canvassers and recruiting volunteers to work the phones in towns like Bayonne, a Democratic stronghold. On a rainy October afternoon, about a dozen teenagers got ready to knock on doors and ask people to give Menendez a third term.
“Most people probably say [yes] just because, and they might just not vote,” said 18-year-old Deven Camacho, who was on his second day canvassing for about $12 an hour. “We never know.”
And if previous midterms are any indicator, many people probably won’t show.
Bayonne is in Hudson County, which is Menendez’s home turf, and he’s pretty much guaranteed a victory there. But midterms get about half the turnout presidential elections do. And in 2014, Hudson County came in last, with 29 percent of registered voters showing up to the polls, according to state’s Division of Elections.
Totten said another problem for Menendez is many of the surrounding counties — Passaic, Bergen, Essex — are all Democratic strongholds with noncompetitive races.
“Since there's not a dynamic race going on for those congressional seats, the fact is turnout could be a little lighter,” Totten said.
The latest Quinnipiac University poll has Menendez leading Hugin by seven points. And the pharmaceutical exec has more than double the campaign funds, hauling in over $26 million — $24 million of which came from his own bank account, the most recent campaign finance records show. Menendez has raised over $11 million.
“He’s not ahead by anywhere near as much as you would expect an incumbent Democrat from New Jersey to be,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “You know, 20 points would not be unreasonable to think.”
And money has meant air time. Murray said Hugin had the airwaves all to himself over the summer.
“He was able to take information that voters already knew, which was Bob Menendez’s ethical problems, and he was able to elevate them to the most important problem, most important issue,” Murray said.
The federal case against Menendez focused on gifts and campaign contributions from a Florida eye doctor who Menendez said was a close friend. In exchange, the indictment alleged, Menendez made calls on Melgin's behalf to federal agencies. The case ended in a mistrial last year when jurors could not come to consensus on conviction or acquittal. Federal prosecutors declined to try him again and then he was admonished by the Senate Ethics Committee.
But even just the appearance of corruption continues to hurt Menendez. The Quinnipiac poll found 52 percent of likely voters have a negative view of him. That was evident in the primaries, where almost 40 percent of Democrats voted against Menendez.
Stephen Spaulding, of the government watchdog group Common Cause, said “sometimes the appearance of corruption can be just as damaging to trust, faith and confidence in government as actual corruption.”
It’s not just Menendez, Spaulding said wealthy donors buying influence is all too common in Washington, and the line between favors and bribery is murky.
“And the Supreme Court under Chief Justice Roberts has by no means been a beacon of clarity on that front,” Spaulding said. “The court has by and large said this kind of access and influence is as American as apple pie and it's really up to voters to punish or reward elected officials, not the court.”
But national Democrats like Ron Klein, chair of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, say they’re not concerned about the ethical problems hounding Menendez. The group has endorsed the senator and Klein said the main concern these midterms is curtailing the power of President Donald Trump.
“It’s not just about Democrats — it’s about the country. It’s about the future of the country,” Klein said. “We know where Senator Menendez stands on things that are important to not only the Jewish community, but the country as a whole.”
In private, people close to the party say Democrats know Menendez is an imperfect candidate, and they don’t necessarily even like him. But they’re rallying, especially on a local level, to keep his seat in Democratic hands.
“I think the Democrats would prefer to have somebody who is an Eagle Scout and who spends all of his time doing charity work as their candidate,” said Ross K Baker, political science professor at Rutgers University. “But that's not Bob Menendez. Bob Menendez is a Hudson County guy who came up the hard way.”
And Hugin isn’t the perfect candidate either. While he was CEO of Celgene, a $80-billion pharmaceutical company, Hugin was accused of keeping a life-saving cancer drug away from generic companies; marketing the drug to doctors before getting Federal Drug Administration approval; and aggressively raising prices — a single tablet of the drug can cost about $700.
But Hugin’s biggest problem is his record as supporter and donor to President Trump.
“He is stuck to Donald Trump like a stamp to a love letter,” Baker said. “I think in the eyes of voters, sending a Republican to the United States Senate, especially from New Jersey, would be seen as a vote of confidence in the president.”
Trump’s approval rating in New Jersey is in the low 30s, and the number of registered Democrats is nearly double than that of Republicans. So again, Baker said it will be up to local Democratic organizations like the one in Bayonne to actually get those voters out to the polls.
In a sign that that the Menendez camp is worried, it’s been focusing a lot of attention in Democratic bastions like Newark and its suburbs. A recent announcement from the progressive group SOMA Action in South Orange-Maplewood sheds a light on the dilemma many voters face. They endorsed Menendez saying, at the end of the day, it’s more important to reject Bob Hugin and Republican control of the Senate.
“In short,” SOMA Action Trustee Amy Higer wrote in a statement, “a Senate majority led by Democrats in a Trump era is vastly more likely to uphold the principles of our mission, in and out of NJ, than a Senate majority led by Mitch McConnell."