Mayoral Primary Kicks Off

Title: Mayoral Primary Kicks Off

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Brian Lehrer: Brian Lehrer on WNYC, and now that we've rung in 2025, it's time to take a look at the next major elections taking place this year. Today, mayor of New York. Tomorrow, governor of New Jersey. You know, the year after presidential elections is usually the most interesting in local politics because that's when we elect the mayor of New York and the governor of New Jersey, so we're going to preview the mayoral race right now. We're going to preview the New Jersey governor's race around this time tomorrow.

Will New Yorkers unseat Mayor Adams after a year ridden with scandal and corruption indictments surrounding him and his appointees? Will they judge him as a success even on his own terms? There are seven candidates already hoping to unseat the mayor in June. Citizens across the five boroughs will vote in the Democratic primary, often when the big knife fight takes place, because generally, generally, not always, whoever gets the Democratic nomination wins the mayoralty.

Of course, we did elect Rudy Giuliani twice in the '90s, then Michael Bloomberg, who ran, remember, first as a Republican and then he was an independent three times, and then Eric Adams, who, yes, is a Democrat but ran against the progressive wing in the party, so it's not a lock that New York City, which is very blue in national politics context, is necessarily going to elect a liberal Democratic mayor or that Adams is going to lose the Democratic primary.

Joining me to help kick off our coverage of the New York City mayoral race and the issues front and center facing New Yorkers right now is Ben Max. He's the host of the Max Politics podcast and executive editor and program director at New York Law School's Center for New York City Law. Ben, welcome back to WNYC. Happy New Year.

Ben Max: Thanks for having me, Brian. Happy New Year.

Brian Lehrer: Before we get into what this segment is actually about, as I just set up, let me ask you about some breaking New York City and really all of metro New York news. Is congestion pricing still going to start up this coming Sunday, or did the federal court ruling this week, which probably a lot of people listening now don't even know happened because it was the holiday week. Will the federal court ruling derail it?

Ben Max: Well, that's the question on the minds of many E-ZPasses this morning. I think we're headed towards the implementation of congestion pricing on January 5th as planned, but there are still court motions being filed and decisions to be made. There was a little bit of ambiguity in the latest ruling and still some questions, but we've heard from Governor Hochul and the MTA that they believe the latest ruling against New Jersey basically is leading them to go full steam ahead and that we're going to see this implemented. There's always the chance that a court will come in, a judge will come in, and put it on pause, but it looks like it's going ahead at this point, but that could change any moment.

Brian Lehrer: I believe the judge in that case is going to be asked to make a ruling tomorrow on kind of an injunction whether to force a delay in the implementation of congestion pricing beginning on Sunday, so watch the court docket for the final word, at least for Day 1 of congestion pricing probably coming around the end of the day tomorrow. All right, let's talk about the mayoral race. Let's talk about the mayor. Adams won the previous election largely by focusing on New Yorkers' sense that crime was out of control in the city as well as his promises to make living here more affordable. Is there a sense that those who voted for him feel he has lived up to those promises, at least on his own terms?

Ben Max: Oh, I think that's a very mixed, at best, batch for him. I think there are some voters that polls show continue to support him, especially among his base, particularly of Black voters in the city, but he has definitely frayed in terms of his winning coalition, in terms of what the polls show about his public approval ratings and about some of the interest in him resigning after he was indicted or interest in electing someone else, as these polls often ask, the question then becomes who is that someone else?

If voters really who are frustrated with Adams and don't think he has delivered as he promised, who voted for him, would look elsewhere, depending on who the field actually is made up of, and that's where you get from polls about approval ratings to actual choices in the ballot box, and that can mean that some of Adams's coalition perhaps comes home to him. It's very early to say that, but there's definitely signs that his coalition has frayed in a significant way, and many voters are up for grabs as we head towards this primary.

Brian Lehrer: Do you have data or just an impression based on your knowledge of how Adams's statements and policies toward all the asylum-seekers coming here and other recent migrants are affecting his popularity? I know his popularity is down, but just as him being kind of a centrist or more conservative Democrat on crime presumably helped him in 2021, is being more of a conservative or centrist on immigration than a lot of the progressives who will challenge him in the Democratic primary likely to help him or would that help him if the election was held today?

Ben Max: I think my sense of this from polls and other things is that this is also a mixed bag for him. I think many New Yorkers have shared [unintelligible 00:06:08] frustration about the scope and impact of the migrant crisis as well as the lack of help from the federal government, but at the same time, I think many voters are showing frustration with the way that he has handled it or not handled it as well as they would like to see.

That can relate to a number of things, including shelter placements and management of where people are going, both people who just simply don't want shelters in their neighborhoods but also people who disapprove of the way that he has instituted 30- or 60-day limits on migrants in some of these shelters. That can be across the board.

Brian Lehrer: Meaning he's getting migrant policy from the left and the right at the same time?

Ben Max: I think so, and I think this is where you bump into challenges with, again, his coalition, which lean more moderate to conservative even in the Democratic primary, and you have people frustrated, even if they have some sympathy for the situation he has been in.

I think that's pretty universal, actually, even across the political spectrum and among his opponents, that they have sympathy that this crisis was not of his own making and this was something that has been very challenging for him in the city, but there's still, of course, especially in political season, a lot of criticism for how he has handled the particulars of both the message that he has portrayed to New Yorkers, some of the language he has used talking about this crisis, "destroying the city" and so forth, at times sort of advancing a narrative that there's a migrant crime wave, which there really hasn't been, although there have been some challenges.

Then at the same time, people who are frustrated that he hasn't been able to win more support from the federal government and questioning some of his tactics and strategy on that front. Even those who sympathize with him about that lack of help or even think that his indictment has some political motivation, at least what we see in this recent polling, there's a lot of questions about his management of the city.

Brian Lehrer: The migrant crime wave narrative is so misleading, and I don't want to get off on that too much now because we're really talking about mayoral hopefuls, but it can be so misleading. It seems to me that whenever there is a high-profile crime that's committed by a migrant, we hear, "Migrant commits crimes," but when there's a crime committed by somebody who was born here, we don't see any headline that says, "Native New Yorker commits crime." If you look at the data, and I don't know if you have, historically, immigrants commit serious crimes at a lower rate than people born in this country.

I don't know if you have data comparing the last few years in this respect in New York City, but it can be so misleading the way these individual incidents get reported.

Ben Max: I don't have data on the recent migrants. I don't think that data particularly exists at this moment, but to all your points, to just take them a step further, is that we do see in polling in New York City even, some of the trend that seemed to play out on the national level, where you do see, even more so in New York, of course, support generally for immigration and support for the notion that New York City needs to be a welcoming place to all, but still also this undercurrent beneath that, that there is a lot of frustration about the recent migrant wave.

That could have a number of factors to it, including all of the sensationalism, as you've gotten at, about some of the crime issues, although, again, there have been some incidents, but also around all of the attention on the sort of government benefits that have been extended to recent arrivals and some of the frustrations that even recent generations of immigrants may have about how recent arrivals have been treated, where in this new trend, those arrivals have been coming and asking for housing and other benefits under the city's right-to-shelter provision, so you see tricky dynamics that have played out here, even though broadly, of course, New York City and New Yorkers remain very positive about immigration overall.

Brian Lehrer: All right. Let's start running through this list of candidates running for mayor so far. We're going to play a few clips here of individuals from the crowded field of progressives who are hoping to beat the odds of both unseating an incumbent but also breaking New York City's tradition of electing centrists for the most part, except for de Blasio over the last 30 years. Up first, we've got our city's current comptroller, Brad Lander, who's decided to leave his post as comptroller if, of course, he gets elected mayor. Let's hear him discuss the track record he's hoping will appeal to voters.

Brad Lander: I've got a real track record of delivering results in the comptroller's office. We protect the retirement security of our teachers and cops and firefighters. We've had really successful investments of the $275 billion, and we've invested in affordable housing, in small businesses. Look, it's really about delivering quality of life and city services across every neighborhood. That's the value that I think New Yorkers want from City Hall that they feel they're not getting and that I'm committed to deliver.

Brian Lehrer: Brad Lander, the current comptroller, who was also a founder when he was in City Council of the City Council's Progressive Caucus, but one comptroller challenging Eric Adams is not enough. He's the present comptroller. How about the previous comptroller, Scott Stringer? He also has his hat in the ring. Let's hear his candidate statement, 45 seconds.

Scott Stringer: I think people understand what the next mayor has to do and the kind of person it ought to be, and I bring 30 years of government service to the hope that we can finally clean up the city, end the corruption, actually get things accomplished in affordable housing and education, and so I'm going to use my experience to tell voters I think I can do a really good job.

I've been the comptroller for eight years. I know the finances. I've been Manhattan borough president. I know land use and zoning. I served, as you know, in the state legislature where I was the most independent legislator at that time period. Put it all together, I'm ready to serve. I've got skin in the game. I've got two young kids in this city, they're going to public school. The campaign is attracting millions of dollars from thousands of low-dollar contributors. I'm excited, Marcia.

Brian Lehrer: Talking to Marcia Kramer on Channel 2. Stringer ran before four years ago, but had his candidacy derailed, as many listeners will remember, by a sexual misconduct allegation, but that was a very old allegation and not proven, so he's taking another shot. Next few candidates are all coming from the state legislature and also happen to be further to the left, I think it's fair to say, than either Stringer or Lander. Not sure about Lander, but with one running as a Democratic socialist. Let's first hear from Jessica Ramos. She's a state senator from Queens. Here's how she's differentiating herself from other progressives running for mayor.

Jessica Ramos: Well, like I mentioned, I'm bringing 20 years of public service to the table. I am the woman in this race. I'm a mother who understands the needs for a better education system. That's going to be a lot of what I talk about, being Queens state Senator, I see the need for affordable housing across our city. Senior housing, NYCHA improvements, these are all things we're going to be able to talk about. I think I am a unique bridge between labor and business given my experience also at the negotiating table and can be a voice that unifies the five boroughs.

I also speak Spanish and believe that that is something that is increasingly necessary in talking to the influx of migrants, making sure that they're getting the right information, making sure that we are helping them integrate into the way we do things in New York City, and that's going to be a big part of that campaign as well.

Brian Lehrer: Jessica Ramos on New York 1 in September. She's running as a pro-labor candidate as well. She has got the most union endorsements so far. Another Queens representative up running for mayor is Zohran Mamdani, who's got the endorsement of the New York City chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America as well as UAW Region 9A alongside Ramos. They've endorsed either one of them. Here he is, Zohran Mamdani, member of the Assembly on Democracy Now, discussing his primary issues.

Zohran Mamdani: I think that a number of members of the political class think that the most pressing issue that is facing New Yorkers right now is the corruption that has engulfed City Hall or an issue of competence with this mayor. I think while those are important, the true crisis that most New Yorkers think about on a day-to-day basis is cost of living. This is a campaign where we are not only going to focus on that crisis relentlessly, but we are beginning it by putting forward three bold proposals that will immediately take action on that very issue.

We are going to freeze the rent for every single rent-stabilized tenant for every single year of the mayoralty. We are going to make buses free and fast across this entire city, and we are going to enact universal childcare at no cost for all New Yorkers for children from the ages of 6 weeks to 5 years. These are the policies that will set us apart, and these are the policies that resonate with New Yorkers' concerns.

Brian Lehrer: Zohran Mamdani running as a Democrat and a member of the DSA. Also from the left we've got State Senator Zellnor Myrie from Brooklyn also taking up the housing issue against Adams.

Zellnor Myrie: Well, I've been listening to New Yorkers over the past couple of months and weeks, and the most pressing issue that I have heard is that the city is no longer affordable. It is a place where people cannot live. The average cost of rent is $3,800 a month.

The average cost to own a home is close to $800,000. We have a rent in New York City that's 149% higher than the national average, 23% higher than it was before the pandemic, and so when we thought about what it takes to lead this city and to lead it in this moment, I could think of no better way to do that than to ground it in rebuilding New York City, building a lot of housing, preserving housing, and doing so, making it official that we want to be the next mayor of this city.

Brian Lehrer: Now back to our guest, Ben Max, who's been waiting patiently as we played those sound bites, introductory sound bites, in this first mayoral election preview of the year here on the Brian Lehrer Show. All of those coming from arguably, Ben Max, to the left of Eric Adams. Did I leave anybody out?

Ben Max: I would say they're all definitely to the left of Eric Adams, where they sort of fit around each other is interesting to discuss. Michael Blake, a former Assembly member, has also jumped into the race, and Jim Walden, an attorney who's had a lot of interesting cases both relating to government and not, is also in the race, although Jim Walden has said he might run in the general election as an independent, not in the Democratic primary, but Michael Blake, perhaps the most prominent name not included there, who has jumped in the race, he's the latest entry along those you listed. He hasn't been around very much in this race, but he's running.

Brian Lehrer: Hang on, we have a Michael Blake clip.

Ben Max: All right.

Brian Lehrer: Here he is on PIX11 just on the 6th of December. Michael Blake also has been in the state legislature.

Michael Blake: New York City needs a mayor that's going to focus on cost of living, quality of life, keeping our community safe, and be a clear counter to the Trump administration, in which Eric Adams absolutely will not be that. I have a consistent track record of public service. I grew up in the Bronx public schools K-12. I served in the White House as an aide to President Obama.

I was a successful Assembly member for six years, a vice chair for four years. At this moment in time, New Yorkers have to ask themselves, "Come January 1st, 2026, who is best prepared and ready immediately to not just lead us with a better future, which we have with Tomorrow Begins Today, but to be the response to the Trump administration and all the attacks they will bring against us.

Brian Lehrer: All right, there's Michael Blake for the moment at least completing the set there. He was on PIX11 last month. I guess what a lot of listeners are probably thinking is, "Oh, won't Adams waltz to the nomination as the most centrist candidate," sort of the lone centrist candidate, if he is the lone centrist candidate. We'll mention the name Andrew Cuomo in just a minute. With all these progressives kind of splitting that vote, but in New York City, we have ranked-choice voting, which could scramble that math. Right, Ben?

Ben Max: There you go. You said it, Brian. I mean, we don't get a lot of high-profile challenges to incumbent Democratic mayors. Bill de Blasio had pretty much a walk in 2017 the last time this happened, and then of course we had some interesting general elections under Republican or independent mayors prior to that, so this is a very interesting dynamic, and part of what makes it possible is both Eric Adams's weakness, especially being under indictment but even having record low approval ratings before that, and the fact that you can have a crowded field under ranked-choice voting, which, again, is only applicable to the primary, not the general election, and have the candidates not fully at least sort of take votes from each other and just have a divided field where the incumbent is able to skate through with something, you know, a plurality of sorts, it isn't that simple.

Ranked-choice voting, where we very much expect to see a significant "don't rank Eric Adams" effort, telling voters, "No matter what you do, don't put Eric Adams on your ballot where votes could transfer to him." That will be very interesting to watch, and that is certainly in the works from some of his opponents of various sorts, and where in such a large field it almost seems inevitable that voter's second and third choices will matter an immense amount once the instant runoff happens under ranked-choice voting if no candidate gets 50% of the first-place votes in the initial tally, that almost seems destined to happen. Who knows?

But with this kind of field, ranked-choice voting will play an enormous part of this as well as the question around how candidates might form alliances and ask each other's supporters to vote for the other. We saw only a tiny bit of that in 2021 under the first ranked-choice mayoral election. I'm expecting a lot more of that this time around. The dynamic of having an incumbent mayor who is facing a lot of opposition but trying to rally his base and his winning coalition will be very interesting dynamic juxtaposed against the idea of ranked-choice voting and a field of opponents trying to convince voters to select among them and leave Adams off their ballot.

Brian Lehrer: As we run out of time, is there an Andrew Cuomo factor in this coming primary?

Ben Max: Well, there's a distant Andrew Cuomo factor at the moment, and whether that becomes much more present is up to the former governor. We know that he is considering it very strongly. He clearly seems to be looking at either this year's mayoral race or next year's gubernatorial race. I've continued to sort of armchair this thinking. It's so hard for me, having watched Andrew Cuomo as governor for more than a decade, to see him wanting to be the mayor of New York City, having to sort of serve under the thumb of a governor in Albany, which he used to do, of course, to Bill de Blasio especially, but he seems to be seriously taking a look at it.

His entrance into the race would be an enormous dynamic that would significantly shift what the race dynamics look like and how voters may approach his candidacy and the overall ranked choice and how much attention, of course, is on the governor who resigned in disgrace in 2021 trying to have a political comeback. We will know a lot more about the field, including some of these candidates we mentioned may decide not to run after all, but we'll know a lot more about the field in about mid-March when candidates have to do their ballot petitioning and then get those signatures ready to submit to actually get on the ballot.

Brian Lehrer: Briefly, policy-wise, ideology-wise, Cuomo would be running more in the Eric Adams's lane?

Ben Max: He would be. I mean, it's significant to note they both have a base, especially among Black voters and among sort of white outer borough voters who are more moderate to conservative, but then also some strands of support in Manhattan and other places. It has always been the thinking, and even Cuomo and his people sort of saying that if Eric Adams is in the race, Andrew Cuomo would not join the race, but at the same time, Eric Adams has now been indicted and is seen to be so weak that Andrew Cuomo is seemingly taking a very strong look at possibly entering the race even with Adams in it.

I don't know that Eric Adams would go for this, but you could see a situation where they form some sort of alliance to try to convince voters to rank each other 1 and 2 and not all these other candidates who have been trying to take on Adams, but if Cuomo were to enter the race, I don't know how much Eric Adams would go for that type of thing.

Brian Lehrer: Ben Max is the host of the Max Politics podcast and executive editor and program director at New York Law School's Center for New York City Law. Ben, thanks a lot.

Ben Max: My pleasure.

 

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