Nate Silver, a statistician and the founder and editor in chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight, discusses his first forecast for the 2016 presidential election.

Trump chances of Making America Great Again are currently 22%, up a tick from 20%. https://t.co/WLXtJovjYd pic.twitter.com/r9BmujztYs

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 1, 2016

Clinton's running a bit ahead of Obama '12 in swing states, although with some exceptions. Same in national polls. pic.twitter.com/i6Hk2yl9VE

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 5, 2016

This is interesting, though. Trump's only winning *red* states by 7 points, whereas Romney won them by 16. pic.twitter.com/rx41gnot8K

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 5, 2016