Why the Colorado River is Drying Up

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Brian Lehrer: It's The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC. Good morning, again, everyone. Now our climate story of the week. We're turning to the southwest where the Colorado River has been facing an historic drought this year due to climate change. Reservoirs in the region are at record lows. This, if you live in the New York area or anywhere else that's not in that region you may not know, is one of the most important watersheds for so many Americans. Abundant enough supply of fresh water is at stake as the Colorado River dries up.

This will have profound effects as time goes on, including on LA and other major metro areas. Let's talk about this with Michael Elizabeth Sakas, a climate and environmental reporter for Colorado Public Radio to explain why the Colorado River is drying up and what the long-term impact of that might be. Michael, thanks so much for joining us. Hello from New York. Welcome to WNYC.

Michael Elizabeth Sakas: Hi, Brian. Thanks so much. It's great to be here. I appreciate you inviting me on your show.

Brian Lehrer: Could you start out by describing for people elsewhere in the country how important the Colorado River is for fresh drinking water for how much of the US?

Michael Elizabeth Sakas: Yes, of course. The Colorado River essentially connects Wyoming to Mexico. We have about 40 million people in this river basin that rely on the Colorado River and seven states, Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, Colorado, and in the lower basin of that is going to be Arizona, California, and Nevada. Then, of course, Mexico uses this water as well as do 30 Indigenous tribes that are in the basin.

This river is supplying drinking water for 40 million plus people. It's also irrigating millions of acres of farmland in the area. As you mentioned, we have the two largest reservoirs in the US, Lake Powell, and Lake Mead, that are filled with Colorado River water, and these two reservoirs are sitting at near-record lows right now because of drought and climate change.

Brian Lehrer: This might sound incredible to people around the country that all those millions of people depend on one river for the main source of their drinking water. I'm sitting in Manhattan. We have a bunch of reservoirs upstate just to feed most of New York City and the sources are various. You're saying one river to supply the drinking water for so many people. I know this is not a new story, and this is not at all a new topic for you in Colorado, but it's amazing that development even ever happened in the desert as much as it did, including up to LA.

Michael Elizabeth Sakas: No, absolutely. Even living in Colorado, growing up in Colorado, learning about this story, and the situation, and just how many players are involved to write this. This one river, and these seven states, and 30 Indigenous tribes, and Mexico, all being tied to the outcome of this river, and having such a stake in the situation. That's the moment we're in now is trying to figure out how do we all work together to figure out how to work with a resource that's dwindling drastically. There's water cuts, there's definitely hurt and pain. We're trying to figure out how to do that with the least amount of impact folks.

Brian Lehrer: What's happening with the river?

Michael Elizabeth Sakas: What's happening with the river is, essentially, the river that was 100 years ago-- When 100 years ago a compact was signed between the seven states and then, eventually, Mexico was involved in that, the Indigenous tribes were not involved in this agreement, but 100 years ago, the river was essentially carved up. There was an assumption based on some data of how much water was in the river.

That agreement allowed these states to, essentially, on paper, have a certain amount of water that they can use. Well, 100 years later, we're working with a river that is just a totally different situation with climate change and the mega-drought that we're currently in. This might be a good time to explain the mega-drought situation. Essentially, starting in about 2000, so we're about 22 years into this, the Colorado River Basin in the southwest have just experienced this intense drought going on for decades now and because of that the river has a lot less water in it. We're essentially having less snow, less snow runoff.

About 80% of the river originates in the Colorado, Wyoming area and in the Rocky Mountains as snow. When the snow falls, and as things are getting warmer, the soil is drying up. As that snow melts, the soil is actually absorbing a lot of that snow that actually used to go into the river and into the reservoirs. We've got heat, we've got less snow, we've got snow that's smelting faster, and really thirsty soils, and just essentially less water is getting into the river. The river is running about 20% less on average than it did in the '90s. Essentially, demand is outstripping supply. We're using this river in a way that this river can no longer support.

Brian Lehrer: Is it attributable to climate change per se? What do scientists say?

Michael Elizabeth Sakas: Yes. The science right now is saying that climate change is absolutely fueling the current mega-drought and is absolutely fueling the current shortage in the Colorado River. Science is saying that climate change is probably contributing to around half of the decline in the river that we're seeing, that drought cycles are common in the basin, but climate change is making this situation a lot worse. Science is saying that this mega-drought we're in, this is the driest 20-plus year period that has happened in the Colorado River Basin for 1,800 years. This is an extraordinary time, especially with how many people are moving to the West, and just how much demand is on this river.

Brian Lehrer: Listeners, anyone out there right now from Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, California, any other basin state dealing with repercussions from the 20-year Colorado River megadrought? We want to hear your stories, we want to hear your thoughts, we want to hear your solutions, we want to hear if you're moving to Minnesota, which has land of 10,000 lakes. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692 for Michael Sakas, climate reporter at Colorado Public Radio. 212-433-WNYC, 212-433-9692. If you're from the region dealing with this directly or if you just have a question, you can call in too at that phone number or you can tweet @BrianLehrer.

How bad might it get? One of the reasons that we're doing this story now, even though we've certainly been aware of the ongoing situation with the Colorado River, is that The Washington Post published a story just earlier this month with the headline, Officials Fear Complete Doomsday Scenario for Drought-Stricken Colorado River. Is The Washington Post just catastrophizing or is there a complete doomsday scenario that people there are talking about now?

Michael Elizabeth Sakas: They're not catastrophizing. I would characterize it as the most serious moment on the river in modern history because essentially, the big concern here is the Lake Powell and Lake Mead, which are the two largest reservoirs in the US and because they're sitting at near record lows, this is essentially the savings account of the people in the Colorado River Basin. Lake Mead, especially, that is where California, Nevada, and Arizona get all their water and Mexico. With that reservoir sitting around I believe 25% right now.

The doomsday scenario is definitely on the doorstep especially because there are-- Bureau of Reclamation does these projections to decide how much water is going to be in these reservoirs. Of course, there's concern about just the supply, but also there's concern about hydropower. Hoover Dam and Glen Canyon Dam which pulled back Lake Powell and Lake Mead, they produce electricity through essentially the moving of water through the big spinning turbines at these dams. As the water levels drop, there's concern that hydropower is threatened.

Hydropower is already being threatened at Lake Powell and, at Glen Canyon Dam, essentially because less water is moving. Lake Powell sits above Lake Mead. When water from Lake Powell moves into Lake Mead, that hydropower is produced. Since less water is being moved just to sustain the infrastructure, there's already been a drop in hydropower there. The big concern is that these reservoirs are just so low that projections from the Bureau of Reclamation are showing that, in worse-case scenarios, Lake Mead, in the next couple of years, is going to be able to keep producing power.

Lake Powell is projected in worst-case scenarios, possibly by July of next year, could stop being able to produce hydropower for millions of people in the West. Also, the concern with that is that there's a level of which once the water drops. Once it drops below producing hydropower, there's also the chance that it can't even move water from Lake Powell to Lake Mead, and that's called Deadpool.

It's ominous term. Once the reservoir drops so low, its infrastructure might struggle to actually move water down to Lake Mead. Again, Lake Mead is where Arizona, California, Nevada, and Mexico get their water. The big concern here is how are we going to get more water in those reservoirs. How do we prop this system back up? The simple solution is use less water. Of course, that is a huge challenge.

Brian Lehrer: Yes. What I hear you're saying in part is this is not only about fresh drinking water, it's also about electricity for the region.

Michael Elizabeth Sakas: Exactly, it is. Yes, the dams produce affordable energy for communities. As that energy is threatened, energy prices are going up, energy providers are having to subsidize and substitute energy and so it can have big impact to the region.

Brian Lehrer: Here is Noah calling from Jackson, Wyoming. You're on WNYC. Hi, Noah.

Noah: Good morning. First of all, I'd love to recommend Marc Reisner's Cadillac Desert book, which is the seminal book on water policy in the west of the United States. My question is about what is the mandatory reduction, which I believe is 15% coming in 2023, and what is going to happen because the states that were required to file plans for that in August of this year did not do so.

Michael Elizabeth Sakas: Yes. Thank you so much for that question. Essentially, there are a couple things going on here. There was a call by the commissioner of Bureau of Reclamation earlier this year that said that all of the states and all of the water users need to come up with a plan to cut two to 4 million acre-feet of water that they use. I know that's a hard number to grasp.

Essentially, an acre-foot is if you were to take an acre of land and you were to put a foot of water across that acre, and an acre-foot can conserve about one to three households depending on the efficiency of those homes. Two to four million acre-feet is a huge number. That's more water than sometimes multiple states use. Nevada gets less than 300,000 acre-feet of the Colorado River. It's a massive number. Essentially, the Bureau of Reclamation, the commissioner came out and said, okay, states tribes, Mexico, you all have to come together and you have to figure out how to cut two to 4 million acre-feet. If you don't do that, the federal government will step in.

Was essentially this threat that they will make the moves to cut water usage to protect the federal reservoirs, again, Lake Powell and Lake Mead. The states did fail to come up with this joint plan. Some states and some water users came out with their own individual plans, but no concrete, two to four-million-acre cut plan ever came out. The federal government has said that they are working on deciding how they might move forward. They didn't come out and say, okay, no plan because there was a deadline and when that deadline passed, it wasn't like the federal government came out and said, okay, we're now cutting water.

They are making moves to figure out how they can be involved with releasing less water out of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, which would essentially cut water usage to the states that are downstream of those reservoirs. The other point was that there has been some agreements that once Lake Powell and Lake Mead hit certain levels that some states will have to cut their water usage. What was just recently triggered for 2023 is that Nevada and Arizona will have to cut their water usage by a certain percentage.

California is still off the table just because of the way that water law works. Essentially, California has these senior water rights compared to Nevada and Arizona. Those are the two states that are going to have to continue to make mandatory cuts mandated by this agreement and enforced by the federal government.

Brian Lehrer: Yes, really interesting. Noah, thank you for calling us from Jackson, Wyoming today. He mentions the classic book Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner, subtitled the American West, and its Disappearing Water. Well, that book came out in the '80s. There's a long-term awareness of this, it seems, and a failure to plan for it, it seems, including with all the moving parts and starts and stops that you were just describing some of.

Michael Elizabeth Sakas: Yes, absolutely. I'm actually about two-thirds of the way through that book right now. I appreciate him bringing that up. Yes, there has been calls for paying closer attention to the supply and the demand on the Colorado River for decades. Especially as more research came out, I believe as far back to the '60s and '70s that was saying, we're dealing with a river that's much drier than what we pieced together a hundred years ago when we agreed to carve up the river. There have been people who have been saying for a long time that our demand is absolutely going to outstrip the supply.

This situation has felt like a slow-moving train wreck because the reservoirs are safety nets and certain states and certain water users have just continued to use water as if those reservoirs are not dropping, using the full amounts of the water that they're allowed to use. More is being done to conserve, and that's really where the conversation is now.

Of course, many people would say drastic measures should have been taken over the past decade instead of trying to have to figure it out now. There's politics to this of like, if a state agrees to what state or what water entity is going to want to agree to cuts when that might mean that other water users are off the hook, it's these really complicated conversations.

Brian Lehrer: What about me? Yes. We're in our climate story of the week, the drying of the Colorado River and the implications for drinking water and electricity in a massive area of the United States that we might loosely call the southwest. This includes LA, Phoenix, other major metropolitan areas with Michael Elizabeth Sakas, climate and Environmental Reporter for Colorado Public Radio. Sunny in New Mexico, you're on WNYC. Hi, Sunny.

Sunny: Good morning. Can you hear me?

Brian Lehrer: I can hear you just fine all the way diagonally across the country.

Sunny: [laughs] Thank you. Wonderful. I live in the state of New Mexico, the area in which I live, the tributaries go into the Little Colorado River, goes through the Pueblo of Zuni, and eventually, hooks up into the Colorado River that is being talked about right now and it is December 2022. I don't have running water. I live on 250 gallons of water that I buy and haul from the city of Gallup, New Mexico. I live on that for a month. I think the question is always the liquid format of this H2O, but so much is overlooked when we don't talk about restoring the earth, the dirt, the soil. Because if we had healthy living soils, water is absorbed by that.

That, eventually, goes down into the aquifers and into the earth strata so that moisture is still available. That never has ever been considered in any of these conversations about water in any format along this area. When you think about Flagstaff, Arizona, and North on the Navajo Nation, the land is so dried up that the sands that blow from that earth actually reflect onto the snowpack of the Rocky Mountains and are making the snow packs milk faster.

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Brian Lehrer: Our guest mentioned that dynamic that you bring up before, which I think was new to a lot of listeners to be sure that it's, in part, because of the soil becoming so thirsty as she put it with the gradual warming and drying of the climate. That's where some of the water goes. It's not just the lack of rainfall itself and the replenishment of the water, it's also how much more the earth is absorbing the water that there is than before. Sunny, do you live on Navajo Nation grounds, and did you always have to truck in your water?

Sunny: Yes. I live on tribal trust land which is one of the areas that make up the Navajo Nation. The other is Indian allotment land. All of my life since I was a toddler, growing up, we've always had to haul our water and we do have water available in my area. The only thing is that it is naturally contaminated by uranium and arsenic, so it's not drinkable water. That's the reason why we started hauling our water in the late '80s from different water wells. Eventually, the city of Gallup made a water station, it's the best way to describe it, where we drive in our pickup trucks with our 250-gallon plastic containers and haul at home.

Brian Lehrer: Sunny, thank you so much for sharing your story. We really appreciate it. Dorothy in Arizona, you're on WNYC. Hi, Dorothy. Where in Arizona?

Dorothy: Hi, good morning, Phoenix, Arizona. First-time caller, longtime listener and thank you for the conversation this morning. As a resident here and I've been here on and off all my life. My mother's side of the family's here and I've watched this community expand and expand into the desert. Right now, I've tuned into all the current events and very aware of the water crisis.

As a resident in Phoenix, I don't see local news or authorities highlighting the crisis. I don't think the community in this region is as aware of what's facing us as a community. I see developments and developments going on. As far as when Mika shared about the state not having a plan, it's really seems like that because they're living in denial, I believe.

Brian Lehrer: Michael, we're going to run out of time soon. Dorothy, thank you so much for checking in from Phoenix. For you as a climate and environment reporter for Colorado Public Radio, do you think that there's a lack of media coverage? Dorothy talks about the people in the Phoenix area just going about their business, La-di-da, and continuing to expand with so much more development there. That's certainly one of the fastest growing areas in the country if not the fastest and on they go and she says, nobody's sounding the alarm locally.

Michael Elizabeth Sakas: Yes. I feel like a media [inaudible 00:25:13] definitely increased especially national coverage. We, at Colorado Public Radio, on our climate and environment team, we have multiple reporters now covering climate here locally and water has become one of our main focuses because we were hearing from people that they wanted and needed more of this coverage.

I feel like there's an opportunity there. We are actually launching a podcast in the spring of next year focused on Colorado River's solutions. We're really diving into that because I think that's what people are really hungry for is they hear a lot of headlines about how bad the situation is getting, but they want to hear about what people are doing about it.

Brian Lehrer: That's great. Colorado River Water Solutions podcast coming, that sounds like a great service that you're going to be launching next year. In fact, as the last thought, we have one caller who I don't have time to put on the air but who says he is working with a scientist on a proposed water pipeline from the Great Lakes area all the way down to the Southwest. Is that something you've heard of and could something on that massive a scale be part of the solution?

Michael Elizabeth Sakas: Yes, we are definitely exploring the idea of right people moving water. Moving water from the Mississippi moving water from other parts of the country that have a lot of water, which is, of course, a very contentious subject. Some people say Hoover Dam and the whole Colorado River system was a crazy [inaudible 00:26:56], some people still think it's a crazy idea. Moving water and getting more water into the system is absolutely something we're exploring.

Brian Lehrer: Wow. Maybe we're going to one day see the Buffalo to San Diego Water Pipeline. Wow. Michael Elizabeth Sakas is a climate and environmental reporter for Colorado Public Radio. That is our climate story of the week here on The Brian Lehrer Show right off the bat on a Monday. Thank you so much for joining us. This was so interesting for people who don't live in your area and obviously, from our callers for people who do. Thank you so much.

Michael Elizabeth Sakas: Thank you, Brian. I appreciate it.

 

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