Lazio clears his throat

Former Rep. Rick Lazio - who lost the Republican gubernatorial nomination to Carl Paladino - is officially announcing whether he plans to continue running for governor on the Conservative Party line, at a press conference in the Sheraton at noon.

Maggie Haberman says he's probably out. Glenn Thrush jokingly suggests he'll join Bloomberg LP.

Over the weekend, the Republican Party chairmen from the Bronx and Brooklyn - Jay Savino and Craig Eaton - appeared on WABC with Diana Williams, saying they were backing Paladino "150 percent." John Faso, the GOP gubernatorial nominee in 2006 was on NY1 on Friday trying to validate Paladino. ("He's not crazy," was one of Faso's more memorable lines.)

Lazio's dilemma is this: he owes the Conservative Party a lot for backing him early and strongly during the GOP primary. And they need an active campaign to get 50,000 votes in order to keep their automatic ballot status. But an active candidate may not be necessary for that. Brooklyn Conservative Party chairman Gerry Kassar says the Conservatives have never failed to get 100,000 in gubernatorial race.

An active Lazio candidacy on the Conservative Party line would siphon votes away from Paladino and, in some people's view, make Lazio the Ralph Nader of the Right (the guy blamed for the spoiling their side's best chance at victory).

Bowing out of the race would be a victory for the Paladino campaign. But they do have another headache. There is a candidate running on the Tea Party line - Steve Cohn, an attorney from Nassau County. That'll surely take some votes that would have ended up in their column.

Even if Lazio bows out for the sake of Republican unity, the end of his campaign will be seen as a victory for the Tea Party, as they continue dominating New York Republican politics. The fallout will be felt for years to come.

It's not clear how many other chances Lazio will have at running for office, and what the fallout would be if he abandons the Conservative Party efforts (the party chairman has expressed interest in seeing Lazio run). After Lazio's crushing defeat to Paladino in the primary, it's unclear if the former congressman can act as a kingmaker or validator for Paladino in front of a general election audience.

So, the options for Lazio seem limited.